GM Should've Gotten Out Of The Car Biz Long Ago
At least the American car biz. NYU Finance prof David Yermack has a smart piece in the WSJ, noting that Roger Smith, the subject of Michael Moore's take-down, "Roger and Me," was actually a pretty insightful businessman -- one who "understood all too well that GM shouldn't continue investing in its failing automobile business." Yermack writes:
Mr. Smith made big investments in information technology and satellite communications, acquiring Electronic Data Systems in 1984 for $2.5 billion and Hughes Aircraft in 1985 for $5.2 billion. Mr. Smith's successors divested those businesses at huge profits -- EDS was taken public in 1996 for more than $27 billion, and Hughes, renamed DirecTV, went public in 2003 for more than $23 billion....In 1993, the legendary economist Michael Jensen gave his presidential address to the American Finance Association. Mr. Jensen's presentation included a ranking of which U.S. companies had made the most money-losing investments during the decade of the 1980s. The top two companies on his list were General Motors and Ford, which between them had destroyed $110 billion in capital between 1980 and 1990, according to Mr. Jensen's calculations.
I was a student in Mr. Jensen's business-school class around that time, and one day he put those rankings on the board and shouted "J'accuse!" He wanted his students to understand that when a company makes money-losing investments, the cost falls upon all of society. Investment capital represents our limited stock of national savings, and when companies spend it badly, our future well-being is compromised. Mr. Jensen made his presentation more than 15 years ago, and even then it seemed obvious that the right strategy for GM would be to exit the car business, because many other companies made better vehicles at lower cost.
Roger Smith, who retired as chairman in 1990, seemed to understand that all too well, and so did Chrysler's management, which happily sold their company to Daimler Benz for $30.5 billion in 1998. That deal, one of the savviest corporate divestitures ever, ended very badly for Daimler, which essentially paid Cerberus a few billion dollars (by agreeing to retain pension liabilities) to take Chrysler off its hands in 2007.
Over the past decade, the capital destruction by GM has been breathtaking, on a greater scale than documented by Mr. Jensen for the 1980s. GM has invested $310 billion in its business between 1998 and 2007. The total depreciation of GM's physical plant during this period was $128 billion, meaning that a net $182 billion of society's capital has been pumped into GM over the past decade -- a waste of about $1.5 billion per month of national savings. The story at Ford has not been as adverse but is still disheartening, as Ford has invested $155 billion and consumed $8 billion net of depreciation since 1998.
As a society, we have very little to show for this $465 billion. At the end of 1998, GM's market capitalization was $46 billion and Ford's was $71 billion. Today both firms have negligible value, with share prices in the low single digits. Both are facing imminent bankruptcy and delisting from the major stock exchanges. Along with management, the companies' unions and even their regulators in Washington may have their own culpability, a topic that merits its own separate discussion. Yet one can only imagine how the $465 billion could have been used better -- for instance, GM and Ford could have closed their own facilities and acquired all of the shares of Honda, Toyota, Nissan and Volkswagen.
The implications of this story for Washington policy makers are obvious. Investing in the major auto companies today would be throwing good money after bad.
This gives me an idea. If we're going to invest taxpayer dollars, let's do it in the most profitable ways possible. GM? No way. American Express? Maybe. But for $3.5 billion in taxpayer dollars, we should own your ass. "Membership has its privileges"? Okay. Lemme know when we can all line up to get ours. Oh yeah, and all those mansions we're about to buy? Timeshare, baby! Providing you're not on the Obama government as "givernment" plan, where you pay no taxes but get money back, you should get access to timeshare a mansion rescued from foreclosure with taxpayer dollars. What's that? What about the residents? Well, they can stay there as many days a year as they've paid for. Fair is fair!







Why are we talking about spending about 8 times what the companies are worth to bail them out?
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2008/11/022087.php
We should be honest about this - it is a payoff to the UAW in exchange for them not trying to destroy the economy. Because we all know that the UAW is NOT going to let go of all the goodies they have wrangled over the past 50 years in a bankruptcy proceeding. They will almost certainly end up demanding a Chapter 7 liquidation and force a strike at all the component manufacturers to force them out of business.
The UAW needs to be forced out if GM and Ford are to have any hope of survival.
I would suggest a fire sale and let Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen, etc. pick up the pieces. Budweiser just sold itself to the Belgians, so I can't see why anyone should cry about this.
brian at November 17, 2008 6:56 AM
I have just heard the most self-entitled comment on a CNN news podcast: The representatives of the UAW not only demand that the 25 Billion dollar help package should be received pronto but they also declare that they unilaterally refuse any concessions over the salaries, health benefits and the like.
I can't believe how full of themselves the UAW is. It is up to playing a game of poker with the very future of the American automotive industry while acting like a parasite towards the other players around the table.
They really need to be put down a peg or two.
Toubrouk at November 17, 2008 8:36 AM
Amy Alkon
https://www.advicegoddess.com/archives/2008/11/gm-shouldve-got.html#comment-1605713">comment from ToubroukAre you serious? They're expecting TAXPAYERS to make all the concessions? (Not that I'm surprised.)
Amy Alkon
at November 17, 2008 8:42 AM
Are you surprised? Entitlements are vitually irreversible once they are handed out. There's a french term that sums it up perfectly ... "droits acquis".
Charles at November 17, 2008 9:20 AM
No, they are playing chicken with the U.S. Economy. And they show no sign of flinching.
Hubris is the rock upon which our economy will be shattered.
brian at November 17, 2008 9:20 AM
Amy Alkon
https://www.advicegoddess.com/archives/2008/11/gm-shouldve-got.html#comment-1605724">comment from brianthey are playing chicken with the U.S. Economy.
That's what I liked about this piece -- it makes that point pretty strongly. I think few people see that. Also, per the entitlements, maybe you can't get into the piece without a WSJ subscrip, but he points out at the end that we're headed toward having an economy like that of France -- or Zimbabwe.
Amy Alkon
at November 17, 2008 9:24 AM
Why should anyone be surprised? This is the same UAW that fought for the right to smoke on the assembly line. I guess they thought it was the customer's problem if the leather seats in their new cars were burned full of holes.
You could write an encyclopedia about the follies of management at the Big 3, but it's hard to believe that Toyota, Volkswagen or any other company would not be staggering toward bankruptcy if they had the UAW dragging them down.
Martin at November 17, 2008 9:24 AM
Over-inflated sense of entitlement, anyone? o.O
Flynne at November 17, 2008 9:35 AM
Amy Alkon
https://www.advicegoddess.com/archives/2008/11/gm-shouldve-got.html#comment-1605740">comment from Martin,I>? This is the same UAW that fought for the right to smoke on the assembly line.
I'm reminded of the Oscar Wilde/Sarah Bernhardt exchange --
Wilde: Mind if I smoke?
Bernhardt: I don't care if you burn.
Amy Alkon
at November 17, 2008 10:06 AM
Are you serious? They're expecting TAXPAYERS to make all the concessions? (Not that I'm surprised.)
I am serious. It was a 25 sec. spot but it weight heavy on my mind. The UAW just transited from corporate parasite to Governmental leech.
I can't understand this attitude in a time of crisis. One local example; Bombardier Avionic just launched the construction of a new plane. What did the Syndicate said when they heard of the plan? They called the company leader and they make concessions to MAKE IT WORKS! They knew that the construction could be easily exported and they opted for some flexibility to keep the work done in the Montreal area.
So, here's my point; what kind of parasite will suck his victim dry when there's no other prey around? A dumb one.
Toubrouk at November 17, 2008 10:47 AM
Toubrouk - case in point, a local job shop here was bought by another company, and they wanted to move some jobs to another plant in North or South Carolina. I think they were willing to pay relocation expenses for anyone who wanted to move with the job. That wasn't good enough for the union.
They struck. Demanded that all the jobs stay here, everyone gets a raise, and a guarantee that no jobs will be relocated in the future.
The company closed the plant and fired everyone.
The union was fine with that outcome.
It's all about power and money. As long as the union gets theirs, everyone else can burn.
brian at November 17, 2008 11:02 AM
I read today that 70% of Americans are opposed to a Big 3 bailout.
And it is pretty hard to feel sorry for a bunch of people who are so overpaid! The rest of us have gotten used to asking ourselves if we could make the same money somewhere else. The attitude of some of these union workers makes me think of stories I've heard about the mentality of workers in the U.S.S.R.
Pirate Jo at November 17, 2008 11:54 AM
IMHO, the crisis facing the Big 3 is primarily, or even largely, of their own making.
They didn't dream up the Wagner Act, nor did they create the credit crunch that is causing their sales to plummet.
That said, Brian et al above are correct: the UAW is a pox on the economy. The only way to see the back of that rent-seeking cartel is to side with the 70% of Americans who are opposed to a bailout.
Hey Skipper at November 17, 2008 12:17 PM
Here's an article to calm your nerves about the coming, bigger, Detroit crisis:
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1859511,00.html
Tha Mad Hungarian at November 17, 2008 2:35 PM
IMHO, the crisis facing the Big 3 is not primarily ...
Ooops.
Hey Skipper at November 17, 2008 3:06 PM
Economist Michael Jensen is quoted above:
I understand that he is a noted economist, and I am just me, but this statement is wrong, and it is a big part of our problem understanding the free market.
When a company loses money, it is supposed to be the people who invested in the company who lose money, the stockholders and the lenders. The view above, that a company is allocating capital for us all, is the justification for over-regulation, control, and government meddling (city, state, and federal).
Note. I recognize that there are side effects. The employees of GM bought houses and established families in the "company town" of Detroit and other towns dominated by this single, large business. That is a type of investment in GM. The danger of one large business going broke is balanced by the employment opportunities of working for that business. GM's workers balanced the danger of GM going broke (a small probability) against the large salaries and benefits for working there.
Everyone takes chances on his study, career, and job choices. Why should GM workers be special? Almost all have skills that can be transferred to other companies, like us all.
Consider that I can take $50 and go to dinner or buy (invest in) a share of GM (forget the actual prices). I am not depriving the society of my investment if I go to dinner. That is my right. If I invest in GM and lose the money, I am also not depriving the society of my investment by betting wrong.
Of course, I would be happier to gain on my investment. Certainly the society would be happier, because a profitable company is producing value for its customers, more value than is returned as profit to the shareholders. But, the society is a bystander, benefitting from the company's success, but not suffering from its failure.
That is the beauty of free-market capitalism. The risk and reward goes to the investors and the people who choose to work on the project. The investors take the loss if the company does a bad job (with some loss to the workers who must change jobs). The public can benefit from the company's products by freely choosing to buy or not, and the investors make a profit if they have organized a business which creates value.
The GM bailout is the worst of market socialism. Now that GM investors and workers will suffer a loss, they go to the government (all of us) to put the loss on us. Under this system, the politically connected investors, cities, and states get money from us. They want to make us the investors when the company fails, but keep the profits (and wages) when the company is successful.
They made the bets, why come to the rest of us to reimburse them? They shouldn't, and we shouldn't pay them because they failed. If GM and others have great prospects, they should make their case to willing investors, not to the politicians of congress.
Andrew Garland at November 17, 2008 4:44 PM
Andrew --
We use the institutions of private property and the market to allocate our finite stock of value earned and not yet consumed, i.e. capital.
In the aggregate national production depends on the efficient allocation of these national savings.
It's a risky business. In detail the market system ensures that gains from risky allocations that worked out well are received and spent first by those who were directly at risk.
This seems to work better than having the allocation decisions made by people without direct feedback from the results.
--
phunctor
phunctor at November 18, 2008 5:52 AM
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