So Where Are All Them Jobs?
Jerry Bowyer, chief economist at Benchmark Financial Network, blogs at CNBC.com on why America isn't hiring:
The stimuli plans were supposed to be job plans. The auto/bank bailouts cum nationalizations were supposed to be about saving jobs, not 'Wall Street'. So given two record breaking stimuli within two years, why isn't America hiring?America isn't hiring precisely because of government policy. Small business owners, who are usually the first into and the first out of the job pool, are standing by the fence and watching. They are paralyzed by regulatory uncertainty. If they hire someone who ends up doing poorly, will they be able to fire that person? Will they have to pay their health care bills after they've been terminated? If so, for how long? Who will pay for all these stimulus checks? If it will turn out to be small business, why would they hire instead of keeping costs low to prepare for the big tax bill? Where will the market move? Are you in the right business or are your clients in a politically disfavored industry? Are your clients in health care (being nationalized), autos (already nationalized), banking (somewhat nationalized) or any energy production process which uses carbon (pulverized)? Until you know, you don't grow, and until you grow your market, you don't grow your payroll.
Jobs aren't languishing despite the government's best efforts. They're languishing because of them.
A favorite small business of mine, a café I go to, is doing poorly now because people just aren't coming in like they used to. UCLA cut professors' salaries 10 percent. USC has a wage freeze on. And in my own industry, a paper dropped me this month after their page count went from 70-something to around 40. They're in a smaller market; this isn't just about newspapers in general being in decline. It's the economy.
Anybody see any bright spots? Any predictions?
via Dr. Helen







This is exactly what happened when the Clinton administration started bragging about "100,000 cops on the street": towns all knew that once the Fed money ran out, they could not afford their new policemen.
You might hate the memory of "thirtysomething", but there is a line uttered by David Clennon, as Miles Drentell, the advertising agency head, which nails this:"...and to that public, history is last week's 'People' Magazine."
That's why pols are shortsighted: the next vote is all that counts.
We are going to find out just how many people are actually necessary to run government. That number is less than what we have now, obviously.
Radwaste at July 13, 2009 2:03 AM
I heard a liberal talk show host over the weekend say it is the banks fault that there aren't more new jobs.
He said that the banks were given all this bail out money and now they aren't making any loans. He said the government should force them to make loans with that money.
I couldn't believe it. The whole thing that got the financial crisis going was that government was forcing banks to make housing loans to people who weren't qualified. It snowballed from there.
I couldn't believe this guy was advocating forcing banks to make loans when that's what started the finacial crisis to begin with.
David M. at July 13, 2009 6:40 AM
I don't see any thing good in the near future.
Unless a lot of stuff dies in congress, I think we are going to just limp along for a few years.
Hopefully we can get rid of Obama before he does much lasting damage.
Jim P. at July 13, 2009 7:01 AM
I know someone who works at a law firm that specializes in foreclosures and bankruptcies. He says business is booming.
I don't think that counts as a "green shoot" though.
Despite all the doom and gloom, I remain optimistic that it is possible to recover from the damage inflicted on the economy by the government in the last six months. The Republican budget proposal from a few months ago opened my eyes to the fact that it is possible to slowly but surely correct the major structural flaws that threaten the economy's very existence.
Pseudonym at July 13, 2009 7:09 AM
The simplest solution involves 2 miles of rope and 537 trees.
brian at July 13, 2009 7:16 AM
Anybody see any bright spots? Any predictions?
Well it appears that Bernanke's team has been successful in establishing conditions that will enable the ongoing reliquification of the credit markets. Fortunately this has occurred independently of the administration or congress's influence and so hasn't resulted in a lot of ham handed regulation.
This may at least establish a floor on the decline of the general economy. But I think that the Democrats have ensured that we're going to see persistently high unemployment and lax economic growth for the foreseeable future (e.g. 5yrs).
It's my impression that we're going to see an economic situation similar to what we'd experienced in the 70's.
Jack at July 13, 2009 7:31 AM
Amy Alkon
https://www.advicegoddess.com/archives/2009/07/so-where-are-al.html#comment-1658194">comment from JackIt's my impression that we're going to see an economic situation similar to what we'd experienced in the 70's.
Great. Gregg's a little older than I am, and things were so bad jobwise back then that he worked on an assembly line, putting on bumpers or fenders, can't recall exactly which. (This did give him cachet recently -- when they described him in the LA Times as Elmore Leonard's researcher, a former assembly line worker...)
Amy Alkon
at July 13, 2009 7:40 AM
Interesting that you should mention the cafe... I'm really thinking that stagflation is just around the corner, and that one sector where it has already begun is restraunts. I've been noticing recently that there has been a sharp increase in the cost of restraunt meals in my area, despite the bad economy. I was puzzling over why, and it occurred to me: Many restraunts around here that used to be open for lunch and dinner, seven days a week, have cut back their hours. Some restraunts are no longer open on Monday. One near my office where I used to have lunch occasionally now only serves lunch on Friday and Saturday. And so on.
Obviously, this is occurring because restraunt owners have decided it's no longer in their interest to remain open during slow hours. Instead, they're dropping those shifts and laying off the employees, or cutting them from full time to part time. Now clearly the basic economy is partly responsible for this, but I think owners are also worried that if they don't "right-size" their staffs now, they won't legally be able to a year from now.
But the problem with this is that restraunts require a lot of investment in facilities and equipment. And as the restraunts cut back, those assets are being utilized for a smaller fraction of the time. By definition, that's a loss of productivity; the fixed cost of carrying the assets is being spread among a fewer number of customers. And declining productivity is the root cause of stagflation. And here we see that very thing: despite the fact that the owners and employees are making less, prices are going up.
I think this is what we are going to be seeing in a lot of sectors soon. And yes, it's exactly what happened during the Carter years.
Cousin Dave at July 13, 2009 9:04 AM
We're waiting to find out if energy costs are going to skyrocket as we shoot ourselves in the head. The pollution, and the jobs that go with it, will be in China. We're all going to pay for our budget deficits (directly through taxes, or indirectly through inflation and fewer jobs.) Who knows what the healthcare bill will cost?
I have one prediction. It's not going to get better fast. This time, there are no assembly line jobs for Americans. How long do you think the Chinese are going to give us useful things for little green pieces of paper?
MarkD at July 13, 2009 10:32 AM
Mark -
I suspect they're counting on that last part. Once China's no longer willing to buy our debt or sell us trinkets, then we'll have to either make our own shit that nobody but the super-wealthy can afford, or turn into a peasant nation.
Either of those outcomes is acceptable to the moneyed elite presently running the game. After all, they stand to lose nothing from it at all.
brian at July 13, 2009 11:46 AM
"Unless a lot of stuff dies in congress, I think we are going to just limp along for a few years."
I first read that as, "unless a lot of congress dies". I was thinking, "now there's an idea!"
Stacy at July 13, 2009 7:03 PM
I first read that as, "unless a lot of congress dies". I was thinking, "now there's an idea!"
Well that would also be a viable solution. Especially if all the states follow Connecticut's lead on Senatorial replacements.
The simplest solution involves 2 miles of rope and 537 trees.
Would 2 miles be enough? ;-)
From Jokes 4 All
A bus filled with politicians was driving through the countryside one day, on the campaign trail. The bus driver, caught up in the beautiful scenery,loses control and crashes into the ditch. A farmer living nearby hears the horrible crash and rushes out to discover the wreckage. Finding the politicians, he buries them.
The next day, the police come to the farm to question the man. "So you buried all the politicians?" asked the police officer. "Were they all dead?"
The farmer answered, "Some said they weren't, but you know how politicians lie."
Jim P. at July 13, 2009 7:58 PM
Hopefully we can get rid of Obama before he does much lasting damage.
Lotsa luck. FDR didn't have any trouble winning a second term despite Great Depression 1.0 raging unabated in 1936.
Rex Little at July 13, 2009 8:04 PM
Yeah, but he had the media on his side.
Oh, wait...
brian at July 13, 2009 8:49 PM
I wish I was as optimistic as the people who say things will turn around in a year or two. I fear it will be twenty. I actually think I may be approaching 60 years of age before anything improves, if then.
Pirate Jo at July 14, 2009 10:38 AM
If I were of a conspiratorial mind, I'd say that the economic malaise that we are entering is designed to cause more people to get married for economic reasons. Look for more incentivizing of procreation, which will increase the size of the tax rolls in about 20 years. Then you'll know.
brian at July 14, 2009 8:00 PM
"Are your clients in health care (being nationalized), autos (already nationalized), banking (somewhat nationalized) or any energy production process which uses carbon (pulverized)?"
Also now the largest private land owner (Fanny and Freddy) as well as the largest insurance carrier (AIG), and soon to be you health insurance carrier as well.
Welcome to the "OBAMANATION". For those who voted for change, well you got it, it's called socialism.
Wasn't the change you expected? Maybe you should have looked as his voting record instead of how charismatic (with help of promter), how well dressed, how well groomed or how well spoken (again with the aid of a promter) he is.
This nation voted into office a Marxsist socialist "Celebradent" and now we all are going to pay the price.
Congratulations comrades, welcome to the new Soviet Union, Americastan!!!
Ed at July 15, 2009 8:36 AM
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