Ding Dong The Health Care Witch Is Dead!
For now. In the House, anyway. I mean, if we're naive enough to expect a politician to stand by his word. Obama, of course, has broken his numerous times during his presidency. But, the NYT's David Brooks, if we pretend to be naive about Obama's truthfulness, has fantastic news from Obama's speech:
Obama rested the credibility of his presidency on what you might call the Dime Standard. He was flexible about many things, but not this: "I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits -- either now or in the future. Period."This sound bite kills the House health care bill. That bill would add $220 billion (that's 2.2 trillion dimes) to the deficit over the first 10 years and another $1 trillion (10 trillion dimes) to the deficit over the next 10 years.
There is no way to get from the House bill to deficit neutrality. The president's speech guarantees that the more moderate Senate Finance Committee bill will be the basis for the negotiations to come.
The Dime Standard also sets off a political cascade. Since the Congressional Budget Office is the universally accepted arbiter in such matters, the Democrats have to produce a bill that the C.B.O. says is deficit-neutral, now and forever.
Sounds like Obama has found a way out of the health care debacle without having appeared to have given up. No bill will be deficit neutral and everyone will dither until they think it is off the radar until it quietly goes away, down the memory hole. The dems really want this stinker gone well before the midterm elections. Same thing will happen with Cap and Tax.
Isabel1130 at September 11, 2009 11:19 AM
...everyone will dither until they think it is off the radar until it quietly goes away...
Or -- what eventually gets passed will be comparatively ineffectual and probably not effective until 2013. This would advance us toward national health care, albeit more slowly than the left would like. Over the next 2 election cycles (including the presidential), incumbents could argue that, hey, nothing's happened to your health care, and guess what, nothing will in 2013 either. And they might be able to fool enough people for the left to keep the presidency and their majorities in Congress. Then, wham, 2013 comes, and everyone's group plans will start getting sucked up anyway.
I'd much rather Isabel's prediction come true -- that nothing would get done at all this year. But I fear they'll do something, just to convince their socialist wing that they did. Whatever that is, it'll be worse than doing nothing.
cpabroker at September 11, 2009 11:56 AM
Fat friggin chance. And GHWB didn't raise taxes, right? Remember "Read My Lips"?
Washington math magic will be applied, the Democrats will pass something called health care reform, the economy will continue to get better, the sky won't fall and it will all be forgotten in 2010.
Whatever at September 11, 2009 11:56 AM
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