Re the software: there may soon be another candidate for the title of Greatest Debacle in the History of Organized Work:

http://photonplaza.blogspot.com/2006_03_26_photonplaza_archive.html#114338997391228708

The thing to remember is that borrowed money is keeping most of the government propped up right now. I forsee a mixed future where the official insured channels for health care have long lines, and rationing. Just another bloated bureacuracy. Most people will go bare, pay the tax penalty, and pay cash for routine medical care.

I also forsee the possibility, if you are above a certain very low income level, where your entire social security check will be redirected towards your medicare and ACA insurance premiums.

When the whole scheme collapes under its own weight, the fallout will not be limited to medical care, and insurance, it will affect the entire economy.

When people have to spend their own money on basic medical care, what will really tank the economy is a lot of luxury items like vacations, second homes, etc. will be unaffordable for retirees that would be in their prime luxury spending years. Most of the cruise industry will probably go nelly up first followed by most other expensive foreign travel.

Unless Isab's comment is 100% correct I'm skeptical of any change.

I foresee politicians constantly proclaiming we form commissions and institute "reforms" all leading to more government involvement in personal health care.

Isab makes a good point. We've already missed the window for fixing Social Security; its collapse is now inevitable and there is nothing anyone can do about it. It will wind up being a de facto "means tested" program where most beneficiaries will only receive benefits on paper; the benefits will essentially be taxed at 100%. That's in part because Medicare is being raided to pay for Obamacare, so it will be necessary to raid Social Security to pay for Medicare, only this will be happening at the exact point where FICA taxes will be covering less than 20% of Social Security's outflows, and there will be huge pressure to make up the shortfall from the general fund, only it's broke too.

The robbing-Peter-to-pay-Paul thing will end because we will run out of Peters. As soon as most of the Baby Boom generation has died off, the Millenials will simply repudiate all of that debt. I don't blame them for that, but us Gen-X'ers will be caught in a catch-22. Having paid very high taxes all of our lives to keep those programs going, we will find the programs shutting down just as we get to the point in our lives where we need them.

The Affordable Care Act is most likely to fail because there are so many people who want to see it fail. And those people are apt to take whatever measures necessary to make it fail. I personally think it's a bad idea, but I would like to see if it will work on its own merits. Who knows? Maybe it will be the greatest thing ever. Unfortunately, we do have to find out the hard way.

@Cousin Dave

Well, I am a middle baby boomer, and much more pesimistic than you. I dont expect to ever see much of any real return on the thousands I have paid into Social Security. Inflation is wiping out their value at over twelve percent a year. In the meantime, our income is flat, and has been for the last three years.
Nothing good will come of the government printing presses running full speed ahead. In some respects, Obamacare is the least of my worries. General solvency, and giving up even the possibility of a real retirement are bigger worries.

Well, the ACA has turned out to be one of the "shovel-ready" things we were promised. It is merely becoming clearer just what material is to be shoveled.

The basic ideas have been around for a couple of generations. The first news about what was supposed to be in the Act was quite similar to a proposal of 1972 - from Republicans! And the proposals were not new even then. Just how, after all that time of writing and re-writing legislation to accomplish the general goals, what was actually passed was such a morass of $%^& is a clear indicator of where legislators at various levels no longer have time to do anything but raise funds for re-election. Even the near-automatic self-exemption for elected government personnel was overlooked, surely a first time in over a century.

What we really need is a devastatingly hellacious pandemic.

We just made the hard decision to stop offering health insurance to the employees in our family business because the premiums for the same plan went up from $350 amonth to just under $1000. To get the same premium price the deductibles go up from $2500 to being $15,000 and the copays go from $10 to $30. We only have 12 employees, but we can't afford to pay that much nor could our employees. We had fully paid the $350 a month premiums for them and would continue to do so, but after a meeting they all said they couldn't afford to pick up the extra $600 a month and they felt the changed plan was a waste of money if they had to pay $15,000 out of pocket before insurance would start picking up the cost of things (after you pay your copay of course). Instead we're going to give our employees the $350 a month we were spending on their insurance as a raise.

At least for now my insurance is not changing in any way, but I'm sure it will. My employer is one that got an exemption through 2018 and grandfathered their employee plans which means we don't get all the *free* stuff mandated by Obamacare. We still have to pay for physicals, mammograms, birth control, etc.

My MIL works for US Bank and they are dumping their retiree health insurance at the end of the year. Only those retired by December 31, 2013 will covered. She opted to take early retirement from them to keep her benefits.

I don't know why anyone ever believed that government involvement was going to fix health care. The same people clamoring for it now KNOW that the IRS, HUD, etc., stink.

Do you know?

file under: Bad Law is Forever.

ObamaCare's software has to communicate--accurately--across a mind-boggling array of institutions: HHS, the IRS, Medicare, the state-run exchanges, and a whole galaxy of private insurers' and employers' software systems.

Its worse than that. It has to communicate across all those institutions while at the same time making sure none of those institutions ever receive info they arent supposed to. IE IRS getting medical info, insurance companies getting finacial info, anyone aside from the billing department getting home addresses or phone numbers

If ObamaCare fails, or seriously falters, the entitlement state will suffer a historic loss of credibility with the American people. It will finally be vulnerable to challenge and fundamental change.

No, WHEN Obamacare fails, progressive will claim its the fault of conservatives for scaring the public and magically engineering its failure

Ya know, I'm just about at the point where I think we should just let it all burn down.

Its rather ironic that we've got the first black president today comparing the gov healthcare opponents to the fugitive slave act being upheld in the 1850s. Obamacare is "settled law", its been upheld by the supremes and yet that fugitive slave act was upheld as constitutional too. Obama and those like him want to enslave everyone to the government.

Cousin Dave: ...we will run out of Peters.

I'm not touching it.

(Which was also a bad choice of words.)

What we really need is a devastatingly hellacious pandemic. -- Flynne at September 26, 2013 9:01 AM

Where is Captain Trips when you need him?

The only reason that the [Un]Affordable Care Act passed was because Scott Brown was elected to replace Ted Kennedy. Once the Senate knew they were about to lose the 60 seat majority they had so they passed it as the crap that it was on Christmas Eve 2009.

The public was already rejecting it by the time it passed.

So now three years down the line the unions, the small business owners and the majority of the American citizens are seeing what the Senate and the President have wrought. So they have tried telling our dear leaders "We reject this." The dear leaders are not listening.

So the way to solve this is to hold it off and renegotiate it. Not the 2700 pages of law and 10K+ of regulations to explain it.

An analogy: Why are health insurance rates going up faster than inflation?
Health Insurance Thirst Mandate.   Excerpt:

=== ===
His Benevolence: I have decided to banish thirst from the land. All health insurance will henceforth include unlimited purchases of refreshing drink, like Coke, Pepsi, and 7-Up. The peasants will slake their thirst and be reimbursed by the insurance companies. No co-pay.

Advisor: Your name will be legend. Sire, will you be paying for this bounty?
His Benevolence: The insurance companies will pay.

Advisor: Sire, will not the peasants have to pay the insurance companies?
=== ===

EasyOpinions

Patrick: The Atlanta Braves currently have three players with the surname of Johnson, and one player named Wood. You should see the jokes on Talking Chop.

@ Isab Who knew the old Soviet model would go retro?

"the entitlement state will suffer a historic loss of credibility with the American people."

Unlikely. They'll just find a way to blame the other side, as usual.