SF Min Wage Raise: What Goes Up...Must Yank Other Things Up With It
Economist Mark J. Perry blogs at AEI:
Who-d a-thunk it? SF minimum wage increased 14% and local Chipotles just raised prices by 10-14%.
Perry paraphrases David French, vice-president of the National Retail Federation:
"There simply isn't any magic pot of money that lets employers pay higher wages just because the government says so, without making adjustments elsewhere like cutting workers' hours, reducing their non-cash fringe benefits, and/or passing the higher wages along to consumers in the form of higher prices."
Welcome to paying about $1 extra for each burrito bowl.
My fave cafe just raised the price of my coffee kind of a lot. I don't blame them -- they realized it was costing them and they needed to. But this means I kind of think twice about how often I go there, and I think that will happen with people when they see their fast food is $1-ish more than they were just paying.








I read an article several years ago that the cost of restaurant food in Scadanavia is so high relative to wages, that most middle income people simply do not eat out.
They almost always take a sandwich to work.
If restaurant wages get high enough in the U.S., you will start seeing a lot of restaurants shut down, as people in the U.S. make their food and coffee at home.
These social justice warriors don't seem to realize that people can modify their behavior to avoid these hijackings.
Isab at July 9, 2015 2:55 AM
I have mixed feelings about the wage. But really, I think fast food will manage to survive. And if people eat out less, well, maybe they'll lose some weight. A win-win.
Allison at July 9, 2015 8:46 AM
At a 3% profit margin, it might not survive. Costs just went up 14%. Profits don't magically keep up with costs.
And what about the jobs that the collapse of the fast food industry will take with it? Will the unskilled folks at the margins of the workforce survive the collapse of one of the only industries willing or able to hire them?
They'll definitely lose weight - with no money coming in with which to buy food. Not a win-win for them, however.
Conan the Grammarian at July 9, 2015 9:13 AM
Told you so.
Radwaste at July 9, 2015 11:03 AM
Trying to explain about the missing pot of money will get you either blank looks or called greedy.
There's a machine which will make 480 gourmet burgers an hour. Figure one employee slot twenty hours a day. Figure, what with Soc Sec. work comp, etc. the $15hr wage costs the employer $20/hr. That's $146k a year. Wonder what one of those burgermaker robots costs.
Some McD places have gone to touch screen ordering. That's one employee no longer having to work for miserable wages.
Richard Aubrey at July 9, 2015 11:41 AM
@conan I actually don't expect restaurants to go out of business over it. I don't think a 14% increase will make most people stop consuming, any more than they're going to quit smoking. But even without regulation, most of these types of unskilled jobs are on borrowed time anyway. We're going to have to find an answer sooner or later, give or take 10 years.
Allison at July 9, 2015 12:08 PM
They may not stop consuming, but supplying is going to become prohibitively expensive without a significant increase in the price charged.
That's the point most of the pro higher minimum wage crowd misses. The unskilled jobs that can be done by a robot or computer are going away.
If your only skill is sweeping a floor, you need to be priced to be a better value than a Roomba if you wanna get paid for it.
That's a point that is missing from the higher minimum wage debate, the concept of the value given for that hourly wage. And that should be the main point.
There's not a magic money pool from which to pay people who haven't bothered to acquire some sort of skill worth selling on the open market.
In Japan, one can get a full meal from a vending machine. Restaurants in the US are testing drone delivery systems to replace waiters. McDonald's is testing automated ordering and food delivery.
As a society, we've already been trained to accept this through ATMs, self-serve gasoline, and online DIY services.
If you're entering the workforce without skills, the deck is stacked against you. You need to get a marketable skill in order to survive.
Productive members of society will only support a welfare-dependent underclass for so long before they rebel. Ayn Rand may have been a kook, but she was right on that point.
Conan the Grammarian at July 9, 2015 12:35 PM
The market has said for a LONG time that there is a class of people unemployable at any price. Adding them to any workforce costs, no matter what.
Radwaste at July 9, 2015 12:50 PM
Yes, but what a minimum wage hike does is increase the size of that class by adding people to it; people who were previously employable at the lower minimum wage.
Conan the Grammarian at July 9, 2015 4:00 PM
I called it the minute they started screaming to raise the minimum wage - any job that can be automated WILL be automated. It's simply cheaper to buy a robot or a computer than continue to pay wages to a human. I'm an accountant; if I still worked in the private sector this is the first thing I would tell my employer to do. It makes financial sense. And let's face it, businesses are not in it for humanitarian reasons.
Daghain at July 9, 2015 4:52 PM
America would be great if it weren't for you lazy slackers.
And he should know. His family owns the White House!
Gog_Magog_Carpet_Reclaimers at July 9, 2015 5:47 PM
"I called it the minute they started screaming to raise the minimum wage - any job that can be automated WILL be automated. "
Or they'll hire illegals, who are effectively exempt. Any bill to increase the minimum wage should rightfully be titled the "Illegal Aliens Full Employment Act".
Cousin Dave at July 10, 2015 7:56 AM
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