I put odds at less than 1 in 3. As awful/stupid/self-destructive Trump is, there are too many smart people in & around the WH who want him to succeed. If they can just keep him from doing anything that would allow 67 senators -- including 20-some Republicans -- to convict him in an impeachment trial, he'll survive at least to 1/20/21.

Of course, I don't discount the possibility that he could just get bored & unhappy, & just quit . . .

Wanna make a real wager? Get some skin in the game.

On the other hand, all these posts linked to lefty jounalists and RINO's bashing Trump are a refreshing change from Muslim bashing posts.
I thought maybe those were finally going away, but no such luck.

Point of Order. Impeachment starts in the House. There is *supposed to be* an underlying crime.

The trial is in the Senate.

Contrary to popular opinion, Bill Clinton was not impeached for having sex with an Intern. He was impeached for perjury (lying in a deposition).
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A crime that was serious enough that it led to his disbarment.

A president can lie all he wants, as long as he isn't under oath, So I have to say I think this impeachment talk is just Trump derangement syndrome on steroids.

I am glad to see so many people on this blog who know the difference between "impeachment" and "removing an incumbent President from office." That shows me some people paid attention in Civics class and didn't forget what happened when Clinton got impeached. I have said that if the Democrats retake the House in 2018, Trump will wind up getting impeached every other month.

As leaky as DC is - let's face it, right now it's a screen door on a submerged submarine - there isn't one, not one, credible shed of evidence of anything.

It's all confidential sources quoting each other and regurgitating it for an easily conned press corps.

Firing Comey doesn't even rise to the level of obstruction of justice. He doesn't run investigations, nor is he supposed to determine whom to prosecute or not.

The former is the responsibility of senior agents, the latter is the Attorney General's job.

What is even more hilarious is Comey couldn't do anything to Trump anyway. The president has pretty broad immunity. It is the house's responsibility to investigate the president.

I'll take that bet. With the trained seals of the GOP controlling both houses of Congress, and having shown they will excuse Trump's incompetence and abuses of power, I don't think anything short of death will remove him from office until after the 2018 mid-terms.

Now, if the Democrats take back the House and Senate in 2018, it's ON.

"Now, if the Democrats take back the House and Senate in 2018, it's ON."

They would need a two-thirds majority in the Senate. As things stand now, the largest possible number of seats the Democrats could gain in 2018 is 10, if they sweep the election (and when was the last time that happened?). Even allowing that they might get four establishment Republicans to vote with them, they are still seven votes short. So no chance until 2020 at least.

Need I remind everyone that those UK bookies just got their clocks cleaned on the Brexit vote. They aren't as smart as some people think they are.

Posted this in the links thread, but it applies here, too.

Laurence Tribe, in the Washington Post, discusses the impending impeachment of Donald Trump with a few historical examples of impeachment:

"No American president has ever been removed for such abuses, although Andrew Johnson was impeached and came within a single vote of being convicted by the Senate and removed, and Richard Nixon resigned to avoid that fate."

Notice how Tribe makes no mention of his one-time boss' perjury, obfuscation, obstruction of justice, and impeachment. And no mention of the suspension of Bill Clinton's law license or his being barred from ever arguing before the Supreme Court.

The Democrats impeaching Trump, deserved or not, would not be for "crimes of misdemeanors" but for political advantage and revenge.

Link for the article in my comment.

I'll take that bet. With the trained seals of the GOP controlling both houses of Congress, and having shown they will excuse Obama's incompetence and abuses of power

FIFY. You're welcome.

Looking forward to President "Jesus Hates Whores" Pence, eh?

Is Amy saying, "Oh, please, pretty please let him be impeached?"

So the ones who only observe mainstream media (the Irish) give it basically a 50/50 chance. While those in the USA who have personal experiences and see reality not just media give it 17%. I think that shows the bias of the media vs reality .

The other day I saw some interviews with some protesters several of which were calling for the impeachment of Trump. The funny and/or sad part is most those interviewed thought that if Trump was removed from office that Clinton would or could then get the job some how. None of them realized Mike Pence would pretty much automatically get the job...several had a "Who is he?" response.

That's funny/sad 'banker'.

Just curious. Why is it not a crime to try and influence a national election by stealing debate questions or bribing reporters to write favorable "news" articles?

This is certainly more doable and therefore more of a "threat" than the Russians meeting with both candidates and colludaling. (that words sounds good)

Contrary to popular opinion, Bill Clinton was not impeached for having sex with an Intern. He was impeached for perjury (lying in a deposition).

Isab at May 14, 2017 10:36 PM
__________________________________________

In theory, yes.

But as a well-known political humorist wrote in Dec. 1998 (and he was not the only one to make the following comparison):

"I am so sick and tired of listening to them say, 'It's NOT about sex, it's NOT about lying about sex, it's about PERJURY!'

"Really? Just substitute 'golf' for 'sex' in all their speeches last week and see how this holds up:

" 'Mr. Chairman, the President claims he can't remember how many putts he took on the 12th hole - HOW CAN HE NOT REMEMBER?! This man looked right in the eye of the American public and LIED when he said "I did not go golfing with that man, Greg Norman!" Then, UNDER OATH, he said his handicap was a "6" instead of what it REALLY is - a "14!" He has committed PERJURY, and for that he should be removed from office!'

"Trust me, it's ONLY about sex (and all the other things about your personal life the Right wingnuts want to put their nose into)."

lenona, are you in the habit of defending people whose offenses would surely put you in jail?

And, on-topic: are these the people who said Hillary would win?

Well, if I were a defense lawyer, no one would condemn me for that, correct?

To answer your second question: No. In fact, he predicted in June that Trump would win.

And re the first question, I don't know why you felt the need to ask. I wasn't talking about defending Clinton's behavior, whether before or after the story broke. I was simply saying that the humorist made perfectly good points. Plenty of media people in other countries - including China, not just European countries - would never have asked THEIR married leaders any questions about their extramarital sex lives.

Btw, I remember some European saying "in our country, no, this isn't sex; it's foreplay!"

"in our country, no, this isn't sex; it's foreplay!"

Even when it's rape?

"Trust me, [Clinton's impeachment is] ONLY about sex (and all the other things about your personal life the Right wingnuts want to put their nose into)." ~ lenona at May 16, 2017 1:00 PM

So, was ClInton's law license suspended by the state of New York for sex or perjury? Was he barred from ever arguing a case before the Supreme Court for sex or perjury?

Personally, I thought the Paula Jones lawsuit should never have been allowed to go forward. However, once it was allowed to go forward, Clinton was under oath to tell the truth and he didn't.

Impeachment has always been more about political moods the about keeping the executive branch in line. It's a double-edged sword and needs to be wielded carefully.

In impeaching Clinton, the Republicans were careless. In pushing for impeachment of Trump since the day after the election, the Democrats are being beyond careless, they've become reckless, and they may end up taking the Republic down with them.

==============================

Whether Trump eventually deserves impeachment or not, the singleminded zeal with which the Democrats have pursued impeachment since the day after the election is staggering. This has been little more than a legalistic coup. That Trump may hang himself would not relieve the Democrats of their responsibility for overthrowing the lawfully elected government.

When Spiro Agnew resigned, many Democrats resisted allowing Richard Nixon to appoint a new Vice President, reasoning that if they could remove him from office, the Speaker of the House, then a Democrat, would be next in line of succession. In order to avoid the appearance of a coup, the Democrats finally consented to a new VP, Gerald Ford, a moderate Republican who aroused no particular passions, for or against.

Today's Democrats don't even bother to avoid the appearance of a coup, thinking that if they can get Trump out of the White House, they can somehow get their own candidate in. Somebody posted a link to an article in one of Amy's threads wherein college students thought the impeachment of Trump would mean Hillary would be installed as president. That's probably not too far off from the thinking of most of the "impeach now" crowd, even the ones in government who should know better (yes, I'm looking at you, Maxine Waters).

Even if Trump eventually deserves impeachment, this will not be a proud episode for the republic. We're entering Third World banana republic territory here.

Ben, they were talking about Lewinsky and you know it.

For all I know, sexual activity between a boss and an employee MAY automatically count as harassment in some states because of the imbalance of power, but last I heard, it's not legally rape, when "consensual." (Certainly Lewinsky never claimed it was anything but consensual, IIRC.)

Lewinsky was the only thing they could materially prove and hence the impeachment. But the rest was floating around. I remember all of the work Clinton did to keep the rape cases out of court because of presidential immunity. It was all part of the situation. Especially so since impeachment is inherently a political event.