'We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases."
Maybe we should, I dunno, ban cars and pools? *gives the lunch bucket a side eye*
an American’s lifetime odds of dying in a mass shooting committed in any location is 1 in 11,125; of dying in a car accident is 1 and 491; of drowning is 1 in 1,133; and of choking on food is 1 in 3,461
— Because in the 1990's, the women I dated didn't pretend to have shared my lifelong, attentive interest in political matters.
They certainly didn't demand to be admired for their political beliefs (whether or not those beliefs were well-informed), as people so typically do today.
Crid
at March 26, 2018 6:56 AM
From Michelle's link:
"Does this mean that we can reduce firearm homicide by getting rid of black people?"
The actual answer is yes. Black people in the US are more prone to crime and especially violent crime. And that is after you control for poverty or location. I still agree we don't want to go there but lying about things isn't good.
Ben
at March 26, 2018 7:21 AM
This elephant was caught on camera tidying up trash:
"The pipeline, he said, begins with the police decisions on who to arrest: about 178,000 of the 222,000 defendants in the study were black or Hispanic.
It looks like the issue for Manhattan may be less one of what the prosecutors are doing over all, and more one of what police officers are doing,” he said."
Michelle
at March 26, 2018 10:25 AM
Michelle, this a bit on the dated side, but it is still enlightening. The advantage of looking at the murder statistics is that a) we know a crime was committed, and b) these are crimes were the race of the perp is also known. As the article notes, one tends to kill people they know.
Of the 13,455 cases from last year in which the FBI listed a victim's racial information, 7,039 victims – or 52.3 percent – were black. That compares with 5,854 cases – or 43.5 percent – in which the victim was white, an increase of about 8 percent from last year.
It's a disparity that becomes more pronounced in the context of population, as 2015 Census estimates suggest that whites account for 77.1 percent of the overall U.S. population of roughly 321 million, while blacks comprise 13.3 percent.
So, for white people, we would need about 6 fold increase in the number of murders to reach the same level on a per capita basis. Another nugget, emphasis mine:
However, the share of black-on-black homicides as a proportion of black people killed actually fell by just under 1 percentage point, to 89.3 percent. This undoubtedly fractional decrease – which marked the third straight year of incremental reductions – still meant that for the first time since the start of the 21st century, the percentage of black victims killed by another black person stood below 90 percent of the total of black people killed.
I R A Darth Aggie
at March 26, 2018 10:45 AM
That is the trouble with trusting the NYTimes Michelle. But for another group that is looking less and less trustworthy as time goes on here is the FBI.
It is interesting to note that rapes are actually proportional to race. Larceny too. Blacks are actually less likely to commit arson. Who know why. While sex crimes like prostitution they are far more prone to. As I recall that is mainly due to relative poverty. If police racism was responsible for these trends then why are rapes proportional? Why are arsons lower?
It is important to note these are total numbers from 2013. They have not been modified to reduce the effects of poverty. My memory (but no real data I'm presenting) was that sex crimes normalized when poverty was taken into account but violent crimes went up even further.
Even with this being true 'getting rid of all the blacks' is still a bad and immoral idea. ~75% of people in prison are men. But that doesn't mean all men are criminals. Criminals are a very small part of the population. Same applies to blacks. Even if blacks are disproportionately likely to be criminals still the vast majority of blacks are not criminals.
Punishing those who have done no wrong because they look somewhat like someone who did bad things is immoral. I just don't like people lying about things they find inconvenient.
Ben
at March 26, 2018 4:19 PM
Just to add a bit.
There are ~315 million people in the US. In that dataset there were only 9 million charges. So under 3%. There were only 391k violent crimes. Or 0.1%. There were 2.5 million blacks and only 151k violent crimes under that race, or 6%. Disproportionate indeed. But would you punish 2.4 million people because they look somewhat like 151 thousand?
Ben
at March 26, 2018 5:06 PM
Amy's like this with Muslims: The only factor which can account for human wretchedness in certain global populations is Islam; no other consideration from any other perspective [history, culture, economics, geography, politics] is permitted for consideration.
With Ben, it's pigmentation: The only factor which can etc.
It's like they need things to be simple. They don't want to think about stuff too much, because thinking takes time, effort and nuance. They want to know what to be afraid of without investigation, even if they can't.
Crid
at March 26, 2018 6:24 PM
"Just to add a bit."
Crid
at March 26, 2018 6:24 PM
So this teen TV producer got fired, and this sequence of tweets was offered for consideration... And it seems, um, overdetermined.
I don't care about teenagers and their TV shows. It's a mild surprise that the attentive programmers at the Nick channel let all that stuff happen.
But you kind of wonder why the 'twistist' went to the trouble of collecting all those examples. I mean, after a small number, you'd think the job would be done. She wasn't preparing a courtroom prosecution.
So you can't actually refute anything I wrote Crid? Just need to enjoy being offended? Once again, how are you not a troll?
Ben
at March 26, 2018 7:13 PM
> It's like they need things to be simple. They
> don't want to think about stuff too much, because
> thinking takes time, effort and nuance. They want
> to know what to be afraid of without
> investigation, even if they can't.
And you one up them, by resorting to ad hominem attacks rather than making any substantive arguments.
Snoopy
at March 26, 2018 7:16 PM
The terrified, pissing whimpers you fellows regard as "substantive" do not enthuse one to your contention.
When you state the problem, it isn't racism. Lying about the status quo would be.
Radwaste
at March 26, 2018 11:56 PM
I've never seen the analysis done with a control for single parenthood. I think the results would be significant. I suspect you would see a lot of the black-white differences vanish including IQ as well as violent crime.
Ben
at March 27, 2018 6:07 AM
"I've never seen the analysis done with a control for single parenthood. I think the results would be significant. I suspect you would see a lot of the black-white differences vanish including IQ as well as violent crime."
This fits neatly with the idea that any person wholly supported by government is incapable of respect, though it is hard to figure out why education is held in contempt; be sure also not to fall for the hoax, or to fail to note that many societies really are toxic. Ask the man who has been there.
Weed of this potency was simply not available in the 1970's.
Crid at March 26, 2018 2:24 AM
Sorry. See this guy.
Crid at March 26, 2018 2:34 AM
https://medium.com/@bjcampbell/everybodys-lying-about-the-link-between-gun-ownership-and-homicide-1108ed400be5
Michelle at March 26, 2018 5:06 AM
Don't mess with a Librarian
https://twitter.com/BevHillsAntifa5/status/977786517048315904
Sixclaws at March 26, 2018 5:44 AM
What Michelle said, but also this.
Crid at March 26, 2018 5:50 AM
The Reason version.
How to internet.
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:01 AM
Good analogy from Goldberg.
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:12 AM
At least the virile-but-sinister young Commie had the decency to divorce his latest wife first
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:20 AM
But I thought they were racist tools of the fascists?
https://reason.com/blog/2018/03/24/march-for-our-lives-guns-schools-safety
I R A Darth Aggie at March 26, 2018 6:20 AM
Maybe we should, I dunno, ban cars and pools? *gives the lunch bucket a side eye*
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/there-is-no-epidemic-of-mass-school-shootings.html
I R A Darth Aggie at March 26, 2018 6:24 AM
As a guy who once had to start dating again after a divorce, this passage was greatly saddening —
— Because in the 1990's, the women I dated didn't pretend to have shared my lifelong, attentive interest in political matters.They certainly didn't demand to be admired for their political beliefs (whether or not those beliefs were well-informed), as people so typically do today.
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:56 AM
From Michelle's link:
"Does this mean that we can reduce firearm homicide by getting rid of black people?"
The actual answer is yes. Black people in the US are more prone to crime and especially violent crime. And that is after you control for poverty or location. I still agree we don't want to go there but lying about things isn't good.
Ben at March 26, 2018 7:21 AM
This elephant was caught on camera tidying up trash:
https://twitter.com/robertoglezcano/status/977302841915334657
Snoopy at March 26, 2018 10:08 AM
Motion reveals Pulse gunman's father was FBI informant
Omar Mateen shot, killed 49 inside Orlando nightclub in June 2016
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/noor-salman-trial/motion-reveals-pulse-gunmans-father-was-fbi-informant
Snoopy at March 26, 2018 10:13 AM
FBI knew that the statement they coerced Mateen's wife into signing was false, but never told the judge. Now they just reveal this bombshell -
https://theintercept.com/2018/03/22/at-trial-of-omar-mateens-wife-judges-questioning-reveals-a-huge-hole-in-prosecutions-case-and-deceit-by-prosecutors/
Snoopy at March 26, 2018 10:17 AM
Are things like this the reason why we don't have answers for Vegas?
Snoopy at March 26, 2018 10:20 AM
Ben, citations please.
Doing something that has been criminalized is different than being caught, or being charged.
From the New York Times:
"The pipeline, he said, begins with the police decisions on who to arrest: about 178,000 of the 222,000 defendants in the study were black or Hispanic.
It looks like the issue for Manhattan may be less one of what the prosecutors are doing over all, and more one of what police officers are doing,” he said."
Michelle at March 26, 2018 10:25 AM
Michelle, this a bit on the dated side, but it is still enlightening. The advantage of looking at the murder statistics is that a) we know a crime was committed, and b) these are crimes were the race of the perp is also known. As the article notes, one tends to kill people they know.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-09-29/race-and-homicide-in-america-by-the-numbers
So, what do we see?
So, for white people, we would need about 6 fold increase in the number of murders to reach the same level on a per capita basis. Another nugget, emphasis mine:
I R A Darth Aggie at March 26, 2018 10:45 AM
That is the trouble with trusting the NYTimes Michelle. But for another group that is looking less and less trustworthy as time goes on here is the FBI.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/tables/table-43
It is interesting to note that rapes are actually proportional to race. Larceny too. Blacks are actually less likely to commit arson. Who know why. While sex crimes like prostitution they are far more prone to. As I recall that is mainly due to relative poverty. If police racism was responsible for these trends then why are rapes proportional? Why are arsons lower?
It is important to note these are total numbers from 2013. They have not been modified to reduce the effects of poverty. My memory (but no real data I'm presenting) was that sex crimes normalized when poverty was taken into account but violent crimes went up even further.
Even with this being true 'getting rid of all the blacks' is still a bad and immoral idea. ~75% of people in prison are men. But that doesn't mean all men are criminals. Criminals are a very small part of the population. Same applies to blacks. Even if blacks are disproportionately likely to be criminals still the vast majority of blacks are not criminals.
Punishing those who have done no wrong because they look somewhat like someone who did bad things is immoral. I just don't like people lying about things they find inconvenient.
Ben at March 26, 2018 4:19 PM
Just to add a bit.
There are ~315 million people in the US. In that dataset there were only 9 million charges. So under 3%. There were only 391k violent crimes. Or 0.1%. There were 2.5 million blacks and only 151k violent crimes under that race, or 6%. Disproportionate indeed. But would you punish 2.4 million people because they look somewhat like 151 thousand?
Ben at March 26, 2018 5:06 PM
Amy's like this with Muslims: The only factor which can account for human wretchedness in certain global populations is Islam; no other consideration from any other perspective [history, culture, economics, geography, politics] is permitted for consideration.
With Ben, it's pigmentation: The only factor which can etc.
It's like they need things to be simple. They don't want to think about stuff too much, because thinking takes time, effort and nuance. They want to know what to be afraid of without investigation, even if they can't.
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:24 PM
"Just to add a bit."
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:24 PM
So this teen TV producer got fired, and this sequence of tweets was offered for consideration... And it seems, um, overdetermined.
I don't care about teenagers and their TV shows. It's a mild surprise that the attentive programmers at the Nick channel let all that stuff happen.
But you kind of wonder why the 'twistist' went to the trouble of collecting all those examples. I mean, after a small number, you'd think the job would be done. She wasn't preparing a courtroom prosecution.
Some people get off on being offended.
(Hi Ben! Do your 'homework,' right?)
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:29 PM
Technology can solve a lot of the problems.
Crid at March 26, 2018 6:46 PM
So you can't actually refute anything I wrote Crid? Just need to enjoy being offended? Once again, how are you not a troll?
Ben at March 26, 2018 7:13 PM
> It's like they need things to be simple. They
> don't want to think about stuff too much, because
> thinking takes time, effort and nuance. They want
> to know what to be afraid of without
> investigation, even if they can't.
And you one up them, by resorting to ad hominem attacks rather than making any substantive arguments.
Snoopy at March 26, 2018 7:16 PM
The terrified, pissing whimpers you fellows regard as "substantive" do not enthuse one to your contention.
You think you're making a case.
Carry on! Go nuts!
Crid at March 26, 2018 7:35 PM
Here's a good hour from about two weeks ago.
Crid at March 26, 2018 8:22 PM
""Guns are for the police and the government," a 13-year-old girl confidently assured me."
Because you are totally protected by police, yes?
Radwaste at March 26, 2018 11:33 PM
"Ben, citations please."
Old news. For some categories of crime, blacks commit over TEN TIMES the number of crimes than other races.
I suppose you're fearful of being called a racist. If so, please don't comment on blacks being ~70% of the NFL.
You could look here for more about this (although Crid decided it was really about gay parents), or here...
Radwaste at March 26, 2018 11:53 PM
... or here.
When you state the problem, it isn't racism. Lying about the status quo would be.
Radwaste at March 26, 2018 11:56 PM
I've never seen the analysis done with a control for single parenthood. I think the results would be significant. I suspect you would see a lot of the black-white differences vanish including IQ as well as violent crime.
Ben at March 27, 2018 6:07 AM
"I've never seen the analysis done with a control for single parenthood. I think the results would be significant. I suspect you would see a lot of the black-white differences vanish including IQ as well as violent crime."
This fits neatly with the idea that any person wholly supported by government is incapable of respect, though it is hard to figure out why education is held in contempt; be sure also not to fall for the hoax, or to fail to note that many societies really are toxic. Ask the man who has been there.
Radwaste at March 30, 2018 9:55 AM
Leave a comment