The "Smart Growth" Transit Fantasy Will Gobble Your Time
Not long ago, I had mob of angry cyclists come after me on Twitter. My favorite was when people from bike-centric, flat, 84-square-mile Amsterdam would tell me how things should be here in Los Angeles, which is to say, we should all scrap our cars and bike everywhere.
Yes, that's Los Angeles, all 503 square miles of it, complete with winding mountain roads between West LA and the Valley.
My neighbor works on a movie set -- and often has to leave in the wee hours to make his call time. No problem -- to make all those people in Amsterdam feel good, he'll just grab his bike and peddle over the Santa Monica mountains at 3 a.m.!
There's this fantasy notion that people should all give up car travel for some sort of better world.
Turns out if your idea of a better world is not spending a heftier chunk of your life than necessary on transporting yourself to work, there's a good chance you should use a car to get there.
Robert Poole writes at Reason:
If you hate urban sprawl, you're probably familiar with the complaints of the "smart growth" movement: Roadways blight cities. Traffic congestion is the worst. Suburbanization harms the environment. Fortunately, say these smart growthers, there is an alternative: By piling on regulations and reallocating transportation-related tax money, we can "densify" our urban communities, allowing virtually everyone to live in a downtown area and forego driving in favor of walking or biking....The problem with this vision is the inability of transit to effectively compete with the auto highway system.
Simply put, cars work better for workers. A 2012 Brookings study analyzing data from 371 transit providers in America's largest 100 metro areas found that over three-fourths of all jobs are in neighborhoods with transit service--but only about a quarter of those jobs can be reached by transit within 90 minutes. That's more than three times the national average commute time.
Another study, by Andrew Owen and David Levinson of the University of Minnesota, looked at job access via transit in 46 of the 50 largest metro areas. Their data combined actual in-vehicle time with estimated walking time at either end of the transit trip, to approximate total door-to-door travel time. Only five of the 46 metro areas have even a few percent of their jobs accessible by transit within half an hour. All the others have 1 percent or less. Within 60 minutes door-to-door, the best cities have 15-22 percent of jobs reachable by transit.
Meanwhile, Owen and Levinson found that in 31 of the 51 largest metro areas in 2010, 100 percent of jobs could be reached by car in 30 minutes or less. Within 40 minutes, all the jobs could be reached by car in 39 of the cities. Within an hour, essentially every job in all 51 places could be reached by car. The roadway network is ubiquitous, connecting every possible origin to every destination. The contrast with access via transit--let alone walking or biking--is profound.
The thing is, I'm a fan of reducing pollution and I biked and rollerskated all over New York City -- also a vastly, vastly smaller footprint than LA.
The way for at least some traffic to be diminished and for employers not to suck so much of their employees' time is to work over Skype -- which I do with the woman who works editing me part-time.
But if I'm going someplace -- as somebody who dresses in a way I describe as "like a slutty Amish woman" (in long, form-fitting taffeta eveningwear skirts), I am going there in an air-conditioned motor vehicle, not by peddling there like Margaret Hamilton in the Wizard of Oz.








It's bad to assume that advice, especially advice from Europeans, is in our best interest.
I wish I could find the reference, but there was a survey of European attitudes toward the US concurrent with one of those global-governance global warming conferences. I take a cynical view of solving global warming by taxing the US to transfer the money to the rest of the world, especially since the US has spent 40 years making it expensive to do things that get in the way of clean air and clean water, and it looks like people on the line for the cash get money, especially European quangos.
In any event, the thing that struck me the most of this survey was the invective the continentals had toward American freedom of movement. I don't recall the Dutch, but I do recall the Germans favoring the position that the UN should make the US government restrict the amount of miles Americans were allowed to drive to 30 per day. Could you imagine over a week to get from Detroit to Mackinac city? Or two days to get from the outer suburbs to Detroit Metro Airport?
Their opinions are a whole lot less relevant when you realize they would just like us to die.
El Verde Loco at June 21, 2018 6:52 AM
My city has it's annual "take a bus to work" day, and because they have an agreement with my employer, I can ride for free.
And yet, I still drive every day. Because I've examined the time tables, and determined that it will take at least 45 minutes on the bus. I don't think I included the walking time to get to/from the stops. And that includes one transfer downtown.
Driving time on a good day: 12 minutes. On a bad day, 20 minutes. And if I were so inclined, I can walk the distance in about...45 minutes.
Germans favoring the position that the UN should make the US government restrict the amount of miles Americans were allowed to drive to 30 per day.
That's because they've never actually had to drive across Texas on I-10. Google maps say that it is 885 miles between the Louisiana border and the New Mexico border on I-10. I can do that in one day, but boy, that's a long day.
But at least that isn't as bad as trying to go from Kansas City to Denver on I-70. Unless you really like looking at wheat fields as far as the eye can see.
I R A Darth Aggie at June 21, 2018 8:30 AM
The United States has decreased its carbon emissions by 15% over the past decade (source), bringing emissions back down to early-1990s levels, and has done so without any significant new regulation, even as energy prices have dropped. Germany, on the other hand, is seeing its carbon emissions go up, despite a stagnant economy, sharply rising energy prices and reductions in industrial activity. I don't see a lot of upper-class Germans who are willing to give up their autobahns.
Mass transit planning is infuriating because, on the surface, it seems like the kind of thing that ought to work. But once you start digging into it, there are a zillion practical problems that usually add up to it not working for most of the potential user base. I remember the first time I rode the Toronto subway from Sheppard (a station in the northern suburbs) to downtown. When I arrived at Queens, I was rather shocked to realize that it had taken nearly 45 minutes, for a journey that can be driven (at off-peak hours) in 10 minutes on the Don Valley Expressway. The trains themselves are pretty fast -- but in order to be "mass" transit, they have to make a whole bunch of time-consuming stops. And Toronto is a very good system compared to a lot of them; for one thing, it isn't suffering from decades of deferred maintenance like, say, the New York system is. Nonetheless, I added up costs, and figured that if I rode that route every day, the per mile cost would be about 2x the cost of driving it with a rental car, never mind the transit time difference. And that was assuming that there were stations near the places that I stayed and worked, which there were not. Toronto gets damned cold in January; I am not fond of the idea of a 20-minute walk to a subway station in below-zero weather.
Buses can go anywhere cars can go, but they are even slower than trains. Buses work for one category of people: those whose time is not worth very much. That doesn't describe very many people. Trains, for the most part, are only good at moving a whole bunch of people from a point A to a point B. If some people need to go to points C, D, E, or F, the train doesn't work for them, individually or as a group.
A lot of the most city-enthusiastic Millennials are discovering the joys and practicalities of the burbs, as their families grow. They still go into the city some, but mostly for entertainment; their jobs are moving to the suburbs with them. (Or they are telecommuting.) City centers are turning into essentially entertainment districts. An entertainment district is fun to visit, but unless you're footloose and fancy free and can tolerate a lot of inconveniences, they aren't great places to live.
Cousin Dave at June 21, 2018 8:56 AM
The left likes to say Americans are stupid about Europe, other countries and geography. But other countries have as many mental holes as Americans do, often driven by Hollywood/liberal media.
We just both know and care more about the "local" information than the far away information.
One of the biggest misconceptions is the size of the US. Europeans visiting the US think NYC and LA are right next to each other, that you could drive between them in no time. In Amsterdam one grows up knowing you can travel under 200 miles and you could be in 6 different countries, depending on what direction you travel. Try that in the US and you may not have left the state.
Joe j at June 21, 2018 9:14 AM
“But at least that isn't as bad as trying to go from Kansas City to Denver on I-70. Unless you really like looking at wheat fields as far as the eye can see.”
I R A Darth Aggie at June 21, 2018 8:30 AM
The only thing worse than Denver to Kansas City on I-70, is Cheyenne to Omaha on 1-80
It used to be worse on 70 but then Kansas finally raised the speed limit, which made it slightly better.
Salt Lake to Boise is pretty bad as well, as is Salt Lake to Reno.
But the mother of all tedious road trips is Cheyenne to Fairbanks Alaska.
Isab at June 21, 2018 10:00 AM
I work in a gas station in Northwest Montana. I am forever getting European tourists in who say;
"Are we STILL in Montana?!?"
"Yep, 600+ miles from East to West on I-90/94." "We've been driving in Montana since YESTERDAY!"
They have no clue until they come here and cannot make their friends back home understand the difference in scale.
warhawke at June 21, 2018 10:16 AM
Heck, there's a lot of urban Europeans who have seen little of their own countries, outside of the cities where they live. A few years ago, we took a tour of the Rhine region which took us to some places that are a bit off the beaten tourist path, like Strasbourg and Koblenz. Talking to a few of the locals (to the extent that I could, through the language barriers), they complain about the ignorance of their regions on the part of people who live in Paris or Berlin.
Cousin Dave at June 21, 2018 10:32 AM
The idea of "densifying" sounds great, except in LA, Seattle and San Fran they won't let it happen. In these places (and others) the rising cost of housing has forced working class people more and more out of town and to longer commutes.
If your commute becomes 90 minutes, it is exhausting (3 hrs/day) and leaves no time for making dinner, helping kids with homework etc.
In addition to cousin Dave's points, I habitually stop on the way home to do errands, which is impossible with mass transit. Mass transit is also brutal if you have kids or are old. Have you ever waited for a bus or train outside in Minnesota or even Chicago in winter? No thanks.
We had a visitor from Germany once who had first stopped in DC and Minneapolis then our place. They said: "wow, you really do need a car here"
cc at June 21, 2018 12:01 PM
>> Germans favoring the position that the UN should make the US government restrict the amount of miles Americans were allowed to drive to 30 per day.
I lived in Berlin and Hannover for several years.
Germans often have a wildly inaccurate a/o exaggerated image of the US, which is fed to them by their media.
More annoyingly, they tend to be very confident in their misbeliefs and too willing to offer up stupid opinions and advice about the US.
jimly at June 21, 2018 12:50 PM
But at least that isn't as bad as trying to go from Kansas City to Denver on I-70. Unless you really like looking at wheat fields as far as the eye can see. - I R A Darth Aggie
I've driven that many times, and yes, it sucks. But the absolute suckiest drive? I-20 in West Texas. Flatter than Kansas, no real scenery other than mesquite and prickly pear, dusty, and windy most of the time just to add to it! Plus, you have all the oil field trucks crowding around you, just to add a taste of claustrophobia! Gimme I-70 any day!
Jim Armstrong at June 21, 2018 1:03 PM
Don't forget the oil wells along I-20. I was on that stretch of road decades ago as a child during vacations. Stayed more than a few times in Pecos. Hated the sulfur tasting water. Best I could do is let a bucket of ice melt, and that tasted OK.
I R A Darth Aggie at June 21, 2018 1:28 PM
‘ One of the biggest misconceptions is the size of the US. Europeans visiting the US think NYC and LA are right next to each other, that you could drive between them in no time. ‘
A family came to visit and stay at my mother’s house from Japan. They were planning a week in the US. The first night there they asked what day would be good for their day trip(!) to the Grand Canyon. Their list of places to see would have taken a month.
crella at June 21, 2018 4:22 PM
The "Smart Growth" Transit Fantasy Will Gobble Your Time
What if a man's time hadn't been gobbled in quite a while?
Would it be so wrong for him to, late at night, have some fantasies about Smart Growth Transit?
JD at June 21, 2018 6:19 PM
Took a family vacation in Germany last year. I was chatting with the tour guide and mentioned that we lived in Southern California. She asked me how long to travel from there to San Francisco and was totally gobsmacked when I replied about 8 hours. I remember her reply "8 hours?! I can be half way down Italy in 8 hours." They really have no idea just how big the US is.
Jeff at June 21, 2018 7:13 PM
You couldn't pay me enough to move back to the dense city. Fun for a vacation. Not to live. I like stepping outside and being able to stroll through flowery meadows and leafy forests.
In any case, I hate bicycles, but then I'm lazy. Even if I was fit, though, schlepping around the kids and the equipment would be a huge PITA. And older or handicapped people would have a hard time as well. You'd still need roads.
NicoleK at June 22, 2018 6:18 AM
A couple of advantages to buses, even if they SOMETIMES take a lot longer than driving:
You can do all sorts of work while riding that you can't do while driving. That's "work" as in "that which REALLY needs to get done." Not the crossword puzzle.
You help to cut down the chances of accidents, both serious and not-so-serious. (This is especially important for teens and seniors, of course. Too often, they're not as good at driving as they want to believe.)
lenona at June 22, 2018 7:12 AM
"...as somebody who dresses in a way I describe as "like a slutty Amish woman" (in long, form-fitting taffeta eveningwear skirts)..."
When Anthony Bourdain died I was reminded of a time I was trying to explain you to someone at work. I was encouraging her to go to your site and I said, "just think of her as Anthony Bourdain in a vintage taffeta evening gown."
Anne at June 22, 2018 7:16 AM
You can do all sorts of work while riding that you can't do while driving. That's "work" as in "that which REALLY needs to get done."
Nope, unless Im getting PAID I aint working
lujlp at June 22, 2018 9:29 AM
We ALL have unpaid work to do, much of it online. Even the richest people do - though they don't ride the bus, of course! Namely, meeting with their servants to discuss the servants' work - or with their financial planners.
lenona at June 22, 2018 9:55 AM
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