We're Sitting Electrical Ducks
If we were smart, we'd take the Manhattan power outage as a big flashing warning sign to heed -- that we'd better think about our infrastructure and how we've let a great deal of it go to seed.
Ian Bogost writes at The Atlantic:
Much of New York's power is still generated locally, in large part at plants along the waterfront of Queens. Those plants are older, and more susceptible to disruption from local calamities, especially severe weather. When peak demand surges--most common during heat waves, such as the ones that struck the region in 2006 and 2011--the older, less efficient generating stations have a harder time keeping up, and brownouts or blackouts become more likely.Superstorms can also disrupt Manhattan's delivery infrastructure, despite the fact that it's underground. In 2011, Hurricane Irene threatened to flood traffic and subway tunnels, also putting underground delivery at risk. The next year, Hurricane Sandy disrupted a third of the city's electrical capacity. Flooding shut down five transmission substations. Other infrastructure was affected too, including natural gas and steam services (the latter provide heat and hot water, crucial during winter and for emergency facilities such as hospitals).
...Failure, fire, and flood aren't the only dangers that can befall transformer substations. Power infrastructure can be an appealing target for terrorism because the sites are poorly protected and the economic impact of a successful attack can be high--particularly in a city like New York. Cyberattacks are also possible. This March, a denial of service attack affected electrical systems in Los Angeles and Salt Lake City, two major population centers. Intelligence suggests that the risk of similar foreign attacks is currently elevated. A House Energy and Commerce subcommittee discussed those risks in a hearing the day before the Midtown Manhattan blackout.
One way to mitigate these dangers is to make utility infrastructure less susceptible to single points of failure. Underground distribution tends to make it easier to reach electrical customers via multiple paths. Regulatory agencies such as the New York State Reliability Council also impose requirements on utility service. Con Edison, which powers almost all of New York City, is expected to design its network to operate even if some of its components fail or are lost to disaster. But new risks associated with climate change, cyberwarfare, and other factors haven't necessarily been accounted for in the design and operation of utility infrastructure.
In short, we're at the mercy of terrorists, disasters, and natural disasters.
Notice no mention in his piece of nuclear power.
The idiocy spans coast to coast: LA is ditching coal only to replace it with another polluting fuel, natural gas, instead of investing in clean energy--nuclear power.
As for safety from attack, Mike Shellenberger takes on the "eek, terrorists!" question in Forbes:
Didn't the 9/11 hijackers consider flying a jet plane into a nuclear plant? They did -- and quickly discarded the idea, choosing instead to crash jets into the World Trade Center's Twin Towers, the Pentagon, and the White House. Why?"They thought a nuclear target would be difficult because the airspace around it was restricted," reported the 9/11 Commission, "making reconnaissance flights impossible and increasing the likelihood that any plane would be shot down before impact." The 9/11 Commission added, "Nor would a nuclear facility have particular symbolic value."
Terrorists, noted one expert 40 years ago, "are, in fact, television producers constructing a package so spectacular, so violent, so compelling that the networks, acting as executives, supplying the cameramen and the audience, cannot refuse the offer."
Where running people over, spraying them with gunfire, and blowing them up offers the package the media need, attacking a nuclear plant simply does not. Since nuclear plants are low-lying and often not visible from publicly accessible areas, there's a good chance that a terrorist attack on a nuclear plant wouldn't be captured on film -- and that would undermine a main goal of terrorist groups, which is to create propaganda.








The blackout of 2003 called, said it wants it's big honking warning signs back.
Enrico Fermi theorized that a nuclear detonation would cause an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which would cause problems with electrical systems.
http://www.futurescience.com/emp/EMP-history.html
In 1962 the US conducted a test called "Starfish Prime" over the Johnson Atoll in central Pacific. A 1.44 megaton device was detonated at 400 kilometers.
Whoops.
Oh.
I R A Darth Aggie at July 17, 2019 7:07 AM
He's talking about modern warfare vs. warrior cultures.
Read Victor David Hanson's The Western Way of War for an interesting discussion about the nature and evolution of war and strategy.
Western warfare seeks to impoverish its enemies by destroying a civilization's ability to feed and sustain itself; and, by extension, to wage war.
Warrior cultures are about symbols and symbolic victories. Fighting is done warrior-to-warrior. Targets of major attacks are symbolic ones; Capture the Flag writ large with violence.
Being recognized as a warrior in a warrior culture is paramount. In contrast, the Western warrior is anonymous - e.g., the role of a Greek hoplite was to be a link in a chain.
The current Muslim terrorism is born of warrior culture, a warrior culture frustrated by a modernity it cannot understand. It seeks to destroy the symbolic targets of its enemies. It pretends to understand modern warfare by attacking civilian targets to sow chaos and mayhem, foregoing attacking targets with actual economic value and instead choosing ones with symbolic value. Thus, pizza parlors and bus stops are preferred over power plants.
Compare American and German submarine warfare to Japanese submarine warfare in World War II. The Germans and Americans targeted mercantile tonnage in an effort to starve and impoverish their enemies, to weaken their ability to wage war. The Japanese, on the other hand, targeted mainly capital ships in an effort to show mastery over their enemy, warrior to warrior, letting American troopships and supply ships traverse the Pacific almost unmolested.
So little did the Japanese understand what the Americans were doing that they were late to develop the convoy system and even then employed it only sporadically.
Conan the Grammarian at July 17, 2019 7:32 AM
Lots of places in the US (perhaps even most by geography) take infrastructure seriously. Yes they have localized power outages. But nothing major. The power infrastructure issues in the north east or west coast are ones made by politicians. Things fail big because the politicians demand it to be so. Those politicians were elected by the local voters. It is a choice people living there have made.
In a similar vein the roads in Louisiana are terrible. All the building and maintenance funds got stolen. It's been that way for at least 50 years. The near by states don't have this problem. So it is hard to have pity for the people living there. This is a choice they have made. It is what they want.
Ben at July 17, 2019 9:07 AM
Localized power outages are a trivial problem. In every hurricane or big storm or tornado power gets knocked out and then gets fixed quickly. It seems, however, that the CA Paradise fire was caused by downed power lines--now that is a problem.
A big problem is starting to be caused by NIMBY: in NYC the power co said no more gas hookups due to lack of gas pipelines. That means no new construction. Last winter Boston had to import LNG for the same reason--from Russia!!!
cc at July 17, 2019 9:17 AM
Metcalf sniper attack
https://en.wikipedia.or/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack
"On April 16, 2013, a sophisticated assault was carried out on Pacific Gas and Electric Company's Metcalf Transmission Substation in Coyote, California, near the border of San Jose. The attack, in which gunmen fired on 17 electrical transformers, resulted in more than $15 million worth of equipment damage, but it had little impact on the station's electrical power supply.""
Jay J. Hector at July 17, 2019 9:27 AM
“Much of New York's power is still generated locally,”
Because transmission loss per mile is a major concern, it should be locally.
As to infrastructure, Obama gave a trillion plus $ to infrastructure, which got diverted to union retirement funds and teachers. Infrastructures won’t be fixed because it is too obvious a need and too easy and profitable to divert money from.
Joe j at July 17, 2019 1:09 PM
The emphasis on wind and solar energy makes the management of the grid much more difficult. Solar energy, for example, would seem to be a good match to air-conditioning loads...but on a hot day,, the need for air conditioning continues after the sun is low in the sky and even after it has set. The term "California Duck" has been used to describe the shape of the resulting generation vs load curve as seen in that state.
And very few journalists and other 'renewable' cheerleaders seem to comprehend just how difficult and expensive it is to store large quantities of electricity for any substantial period of time.
See my post Freezing in the Dark:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/59310.html
David Foster at July 17, 2019 6:55 PM
I don't know if you know this - but the size of the electrical grid already in service is often proportional to both stability and the ease with which new generators can be added to the grid. The bigger the demand, the easier it is to add a generator.
Each new generator added is very similar to adding pedalers on a bicycle made for many people. To avoid being a load, rather than a contributor to grid power, the oncoming generator is brought online spinning just a fraction faster than the grid frequency of 60.00Hz and with identical or slightly higher terminal voltage than the grid. The output circuit breaker, an exotic and enormous thing having nearly nothing in common with anything you've seen (sometimes containing sodium hexaflouride gas, get the idea?) will be closed to make the connection to the grid. The oncoming generator's primary mover, a steam turbine, gas turbine or diesel generator in rare cases, will be adjusted to provide real power (the prime mover will try to raise Hz above 60.00, but can't because it's far smaller than the total load and its regulator can tell how much power is delivered), and the generator's voltage regulator will be adjusted in a complicated dance designed to keep the generator's voltage regulator happy and in-band, to make sure it also remains a net contributor. This part isn't easy because the grid is more vulnerable to voltage issues - lightning doesn't have a frequency regulator.
For the bulk of electrical loads, frequency determines the speed at which motors run, and voltage provides the magnetic flux necessary to move motor parts, as well as the potential to energize resistive loads such as stovetops and incandescent bulbs.
Its interesting that the size of the grid should be of note - it's that big so regions with available capacity can sell it to others. People insist on living where it costs energy - like southern California. California is a net energy consumer, not producer, and its demand is one enormous reason the grid is vulnerable in the first place.
Radwaste at July 18, 2019 2:37 PM
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