How women feel when they notice their pinky toes are hanging out of those lovely open toe shoes:

https://mobile.twitter.com/chadfelixg/status/1333606798272684033

FYI, if he cares more about that detail than you, that's a red flag.

I love these women with all my heart.

> How women feel when

Reminds me of this guy.

Here's a page of text, words on a screen, which will appear to be blank to Raddy.

Here's a page of text, words on a screen, which will appear to be blank to Raddy.

"A Mighty Fortress: Abandoning the fight for a Christian America, fundamentalists are retreating into their own homes. But it's hard creating a world apart when the secular world keeps knocking."

https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/magazine/home/20000227mag-christian.html

There are photos.

You don't have to register. It was from early in 2000 and it was a cover story for the New York Times Magazine, so of course it's very long. But it's worthwhile, in that despite some creepy details, I'd say the family's anti-materialism is inspiring in the same way that stories of Amish families often are. (The Scheibner family is Baptist. They lived in Pennsylvania, then Maine, and the parents now live in North Carolina. The father, Steve, is an American Airlines pilot who also runs a ministry, Characterhealth Corporation. The mother, Megan, has written at least three nonfiction books.)

I got to meet the author, essayist Margaret Talbot, years ago.(Before then, in 2004, she became a staff writer for the New Yorker.) She said she wasn't planning on doing an update on the Scheibner family, despite the huge amount of attention the story got. But, as it turned out, she didn't need to. Aside from Steve's short film "In My Seat" (about how he narrowly missed becoming one of the doomed pilots on 9/11), Megan wrote her book on homeschooling in 2013, which not only has brief updates on her 8 children (the last one was adopted), but has chapters near the end written by all the kids! Those chapters averaged just over 2.5 pages each. The three oldest kids were married by then, and the three youngest were still teenagers. (By this time, Steve Jr., the second youngest(?), should be 22.)

So anyway, I'd say there are a couple of surprises in the updates, if anyone's curious, after reading the article.

It turns out that some animals are more equal than others. The mayor of San Jose, California, Sam Liccardo, spent Thanksgiving with his family - five households worth - despite the California Public Health Department and the governor ordering that gatherings be limited to no more than three households.

Before Thanksgiving, Liccardo tweeted that families should cancel big gatherings this year; that is, families not related to hizzoner.

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/san-jose-mayor-apologizes-for-breaking-covid-19-rules-on-thanksgiving/

He should change his name to József Gayorgy. It sounds somewhat Hungarian.

Speaking of Iron Curtains, I found a little something which Radwaste might enjoy.

> some animals are more
> equal than others

I hope you're keep your list up to date. That may be an important resource in times to come.

Conan, you'll never guess where the next one happened…

I fear a bad outcome for the young performer Page.

CIty Journal examines the risk tolerance of red states vs. that of blue states and finds a great divide.

And the language around risk was glaringly different. Republican governors and President Trump pushed reopening and talked more of getting the economy going again. Democratic governors like Andrew Cuomo, Gavin Newsom, and Jay Inslee stressed that reopening risked future outbreaks and that they would tell us when it was safe to resume our lives.

AND

We often think of blue states as being more open and tolerant of individual freedoms; they were the first to allow gay marriage, for example, and are more liberal on transgender issues. But openness to social change is only one aspect of risk. When it comes to other issues, blue states often stress protecting the community over individuals’ right to take risks and bear the consequences. In red states, with laxer gun laws, owning a gun is seen as a way of managing personal risk—gun proponents claim that they need guns to defend themselves. Blue states stress the risk that guns pose to others—the risk, say, that you’ll be shot by someone with mental illness, or have your own gun used against you.

It’s unclear if differences in risk-tolerance profiles are cultural, or if some people are innately more risk-averse. Risk-takers and risk-avoiders exist in all parts of the country, but the culture you grow up in does shape how you deal with risk and what you’re willing to do to reduce it. ... Another study argued that conservatives may be less open to change but are more comfortable with economic and financial risk. ... Or the risk could be physical—Americans who work in mining, oil and gas, trucking, and construction are more likely to donate to Republicans than are government workers, who overwhelmingly donate to Democrats.

AND

The role of government in reducing risk becomes more pronounced after a crisis. New York governor Andrew Cuomo envisions the recovery period as an opportunity for more government intervention to manage the economy; the programs he has in mind could endure long after the virus is gone. Red states are depending more on a private-sector recovery. This contrast will deepen the divide in America, though it needn’t do so. Sweden is known for both its comprehensive safety net and its robust private enterprise; during the pandemic, the country took a public-health risk by never locking down its economy.

In case you missed my point about states treating the election process with a casual sloppiness, this just in:

New York's 22 District race has been thrown into turmoil with the discovery of 55 mislaid early voting ballots that could turn the election. Republican Claudia Tenney was leading Democrat Anthony Brindisi by 12 votes when the mislaid ballots were discovered.

No one will be fired, censured, or otherwise reprimanded for this oversight. Theoretically, the early ballots should have been kept safe to be counted when the returns were counted, but somehow these were placed where they could be missed - at least that's the story the county DA is telling the court. 11 of the 55 ballots are from unregistered voters and will not be counted, but the remaining 44 could change the expected results of the election.

The county election commissioner casually downplayed the issue, "My guess is they came in early and they were put aside and mislaid." His "guess?" Why are ballots coming in during the early voting period not being secured?

Are we really prepared to accept this kind of sloppy treatment of our franchise?

Didn't you get the memo Conan? You are supposed to shut up and fall in line. Weren't JD and Arty quite clear about that?

And that is the biggest problem for a Biden administration. Roughly half of the voters think he stole the election. And that isn't a partisan statement. About a third of Democrats think that too. So why would people do what Biden directs if they don't think he is the actual president? His partisans have threatened to pack the Supreme Court. If he does so will anyone accept the court's rulings? It will be interesting if Biden becomes a major source of limited federal government as no one accepts the legitimacy of the federal government for the next four years.

Ben,

In the United States of America we respect the outcome of elections.

That is how democracy works.

What we do not do is kowtow to a bunch of out of touch conspiracy theorists because they cannot fathom the very idea of losing an election.

Trump has already lost over 30 court cases at this point, he has been practically laughed out of the courtroom by his own judicial appointments.

"Roughly half of the voters think he stole the election. And that isn't a partisan statement."

Actually it is a partisan statement.

This is no different than the rampant conspiracy theories put forth by Trump himself during the Obama administration that he was an "illegitimate" president because he asserted without proof that he wasn't born here and wasn't a citizen.

The election is over... it's been over for a long time at this point.

The problem is that in many ways Trump supporters have become like a religious cult... facts and information cannot penetrate... they believe what they believe by faith alone.

One does not "steal" an election by getting more votes... that is called winning an election in a democracy.

I told you guys this was going to happen years ago and you insisted that Trump was going to win despite all of the information indicating that was unlikely to be the case.

This isn't about anyone shutting up and falling in line... this is about respecting the outcome of free and fair elections even when they don't go the way you might have hopped.

This is as much about your own egos at this point as it is about Trump's inability to accept reality. You've been ranting and raving so loudly for so long it is inconceivable to you that you could have been so very wrong for so long.

Christ you are a gasbag

Actually it is a partisan statement. ~ Artemis at December 2, 2020 10:41 AM

Not necessarily, Artie.

Rasmussen recently tweeted that 47% of voters, including 30% of Democrat voters, believe the election was likely influenced by fraud.
__________________________________________________

"How likely is it that Democrats stole votes or destroyed pro-Trump ballots in several states to ensure that Biden would win?"

Democrats - 30% - 20% say Very Likely (VL)
Unaffiliated - 39% - 29% say VL
Republicans - 75% - 61% say VL
All Voters - 47% - 36% say VL
__________________________________________________

Make of that what you will since another poll reports that 61% believe Trump should concede.

Personally, I don't care which way the vote went. I'm tired of the sloppiness with which state and county authorities are and have been treating the electoral process.

I love this sappy music so much. It's already 16 years old.

All the tunes on my favorite easy listening station are at least that old. One out of ten melodies is truly enjoyable… That's higher than any other service you could name.

Oh, and Crid - or fake Crid - is right. You are a gasbag, Artie.

"I'm right."

"I was right."

"Look at me, right all the time."

"I told you I was right."

Your "I'm so right" prediction in this election also included a Democratic sweep of the down-ballot races and the death of the Republican Party, something about demographics being destiny. That didn't happen.

In fact, the opposite did and the Democrats lost seats in the House, failed to flip targeted state houses, and, pending the run off in Georgia, may have failed to gain control of the Senate. So much for that blue wave you were forecasting.

In addition, Trump gained the second-highest percentage of non-white votes of any Republican since the 1960 election.

A New York Times article called the Democrats' down ballot losses "crushing."

The Times article went on to say, "Mr. Biden’s winning margin of over six million in the popular vote obscured how narrow his Electoral College victory was: He carried three battleground states — Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — by fewer than 44,000 total votes."

Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back, Artie.

Conan,

So now you are suddenly trusting polling data?

Those same polling outfits consistently predicted that Biden would defeat Trump.

Why is it that you only seem to trust polls that tell you what you would like to believe?

I also love how within that poll it states 30-20%... and you and Ben both quote 30%.

Since we are only taking the high numbers from that poll, then I think it is disingenuous to say that if 75% of Republicans believe something and 70% of Democrats believe the opposite that it isn't a partisan issue.

That is the very definition of partisanship... we get completely opposite and polarized results depending on the party you are examining.

"Personally, I don't care which way the vote went. I'm tired of the sloppiness with which state and county authorities are and have been treating the electoral process."

Great... take it up with the GOP.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/482569-senate-gop-blocks-three-election-security-bills

"Election security has become a point of contention during the Trump era. House Democrats have passed several election-related bills, including a sweeping ethics and election reform measure, but they've hit a wall in the GOP-controlled Senate."

In other words... it was the Democrats in the house constantly trying to pass election security measures in the year leading up to this election... the GOP blocked everything... and now that they lost the election they are crying about fraud that they cannot demonstrate in court.

This is just stupid at this point.

What is also hilarious is that the states that Trump and his supporters complain the most about are controlled by Republican legislatures and in many instances have Republican governors... and Republican officials running and coordinating the elections.

So in summary the argument appears to be that the GOP refused to pass election security bills at the federal level... GOP state legislatures ran sloppy elections... GOP election officials didn't do a good job either... all in an effort to install Biden?

Even the elements of this conspiracy theory sound monumentally stupid.

What kind of idiots would believe this nonsense?

Conan Says:

"Your "I'm so right" prediction in this election also included a Democratic sweep of the down-ballot races and the death of the Republican Party, something about demographics being destiny. That didn't happen."

Nonsense. You are making things up again.

The following thread is from March 25th of this year:

http://www.advicegoddess.com/archives/2020/03/will-the-trump.html

"Barring a major mis-step by Trump, Biden's toast and Trump's in." - Conan the Grammarian at March 25, 2020 5:20 AM

"The emperor has no clothes Conan... it is time to open your eyes." - Artemis at March 25, 2020 6:43 AM

That entire thread is full of gems where you pontificate about how well you understand what is going on... how Trump is a shoe in... and telling me I do not understand nuance.

The reality is that you've never understood anything here. You live in a fantasy land and because of that you will almost always be incorrect.

I didn't mention "down-ballot" races even once in that thread.

Even now you lie and live in fantasy land.

Conan,

Here might be my favorite quote from the entire thread:

"The person you really need to worry about is Trump if he happens to lose because he is a toxic narcissist who cannot contend with realities he doesn't like.

What do you think the odds are if he happens to lose he will declare the election fake?" - Artemis at March 28, 2020 12:05 PM

I don't know Conan... what I had to say nearly a year ago seems pretty much spot on, now doesn't it?

Thank you Arty for confirming what I said.

See Conan the current plan is to just yell shut up.

"Are we really prepared to accept this kind of sloppy treatment of our franchise?" ~Conan

Not only are you required to accept it you are supposed to do so with a smile!

There are a lot of things a Biden administration could do to 'heal this nation' as the line being pushed goes. But none of them appear to be in the queue. Instead temper tantrums and revenge are offered quite freely.

Ben,

I don't care if you scream your head off... I predicted that kind of behavior would occur on this blog amongst the Trump loyalists as well.

My point remains that democracy does not bow its head to a bunch of conspiracy theory nut jobs.

Ben,

Just to inject some facts into this discussion that I am convinced won't make one bit of difference to you. The following is from a Reuters article published last week:

"“Free, fair elections are the lifeblood of our democracy. Charges of unfairness are serious. But calling an election unfair does not make it so,” wrote Stephanos Bibas on behalf of a three-judge panel.

“Charges require specific allegations and then proof. We have neither here,” wrote Bibas, who was nominated by Trump.

The Trump campaign and its supporters have tried and failed to convince judges of election irregularities in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, all critical to Biden’s victory.

“Voters, not lawyers, choose the President. Ballots, not briefs, decide elections,” said the appeals court opinion."

Please read and carefully absorb what is being said.

Trumps own judicial nominee states without equivocation that Trump and his legal team failed to provide any specific allegations of fraud or any evidence that would demonstrate fraud.

Trump and his team are engaging in a public propaganda campaign and nothing more because he knows just how gullible his supporters are.

You are a mark Ben... you've been a mark from the beginning... and yet you keep going back for more.

I never really believed P. T. Barnum's assertion that there was a sucker born every minute until Trump won the presidency... since then I have realized just how many suckers exist in the US ready to be conned if they tell them what they want to hear.

There is a reason why Trump asserts fraud on twitter but not in court... and it is because one arena comes with consequences for lies and the other does not.

No one is asking you to "shut up"... what I am asking you to do is read court documents and recognize the reality that Trump and his lawyers have not once argued that any fraud existed in this election where they can be held accountable.

They only shout "fraud!!!" during press conferences.

I'll also reiterate that this behavior was completely predictable... I predicted this is the kind of melt down Trump would have 9 months ago.

I didn't mention "down-ballot" races even once in that thread. ~ Artemis at December 2, 2020 12:28 PM

Not in that one, but let's look at some of your other predictions, Artie.

"As it stands the demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level. That is just facts and data, not opinion." ~ Artemis at July 3, 2019 9:43 AM

"...so when I say the demographic shifts favor progressives for the 2020 election I am talking about shifts in people who vote." ~ Artemis at July 5, 2019 10:05 PM

How's that demographic thing workin' out for you, Artie?

And, Artie, I said "barring a major mis-step by Trump...." I also said, in other threads, that the election was too close to call, conceding that Biden might win and that Trump was a troublesome candidate, in fact the architect of most of his own problems. Biden did win, but his victory was much closer than you want to admit.

In addition, your recommendation that Biden (and the Democrats) adopt Bernie's leftward view to win the election seems to have been a major flop. Abigail Spanberger, who narrowly won her House race, warned the Party to never say "socialism" again and that if it did, "we will get fucking torn apart." Concern over the leftward drift of the party explains Joe Biden's lack of coattails.

In fact, Artie, this is the first time such a split result has happened in 120 years. Remember when I said that geography trumps demographics? Of course you do.

The Atlantic went on to say:

The [Democratic] party has consolidated its hold on the nation’s largest metropolitan centers, which allows it to amass substantial popular-vote victories, but it has systematically declined in the smaller places beyond them.... The distortions created by this geographic sorting have been most apparent in the Senate. There, the GOP’s dominance of less populated, heavily rural states has allowed it to control the upper chamber more than half of the time since 1980, even though Republicans have represented a majority of the nation’s population for only one two-year span during that period.

The magazine went on to say,

While Democrats will still run the House, Republicans’ unanticipated gains there underscore how the growing concentration of the Democrats’ political support into a few large places threatens their position in that chamber as well. [...] The juxtaposition between Biden’s substantial popular-vote win and the GOP’s substantial House gains captures the geographic sorting that is reshaping American politics.

How's that demographic thing workin' out for you, Artie?

Conan Says:

"As it stands the demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level. That is just facts and data, not opinion." ~ Artemis at July 3, 2019 9:43 AM"

Yes Conan... the "national level"... what "down-ballot races" are national???

Even in your own selected quotes I was talking about the national level... not specific "down-ballot" state or county level election results.

The national level election is for the presidency Conan.

""...so when I say the demographic shifts favor progressives for the 2020 election I am talking about shifts in people who vote." ~ Artemis at July 5, 2019 10:05 PM

How's that demographic thing workin' out for you, Artie?"

It worked out just fine... Trump lost the popular vote by ~7 million votes nation wide.

In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote by ~3 million votes nation wide.

The gap in the popular vote at the national level grew by more than 100%.

"Biden did win, but his victory was much closer than you want to admit."

Biden's win was by a larger margin than Trump's win over Clinton.

Trump declared his win in 2016 to be a "landslide"... I'm just saying that Biden's win was a larger "landslide" using the same criteria Trump used 4 years ago.

Needless to say, even your selected quotes support everything I have said.

Conan,

Out of curiosity, what was Trump's "major mis-step" that resulted in him losing by ~7 million votes?

Remember, back in march you declared that "Biden's toast and Trump's in."... you didn't indicate that the race would even be close. You didn't even acknowledge that Biden even had a chance.

You asserted that he would fall apart during the debates because he was so riddled with dementia he wouldn't be able to form a coherent thought.

Nothing you predicted came to pass even remotely.

I'd love to hear what "major mis-step" by Trump brought about his historic loss in this election... because asserting that the election was "stolen" and that Trump really won isn't acknowledging that he lost or that he had a "major mis-step".

Conan,

Also, why don't you share the link where you got this quote from:

""...so when I say the demographic shifts favor progressives for the 2020 election I am talking about shifts in people who vote." ~ Artemis at July 5, 2019 10:05 PM"

You seem to have snipped off a piece of that sentence.

As you are aware the demographic shifts favoring progressives voters for the 2020 national election were related to the youth vote.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/05/us-election-demographics-race-gender-age-biden-trump

"But one of the biggest divides that did come to pass was between older voters and those aged under 30, who became even “less enamoured of President Trump than before”.

“The other age groups, 30-44, 45-64, 65 and over, it’s a pretty close divide between Biden and Trump. So it’s really young people who are overwhelmingly anti-Trump and that’s really noticeable.”"

So it looks like I was correct about that too.

Go figure... it looks like I was right about everything.

It was rilly me.

Still not convinced this guy's from America, or even living here now. Too awkward, too idiosyncratic, and FAR too lonely.

Crid,

It's the internet... no one really cares what you are or are not convinced of.

It is astonishing that you haven't managed to figure this out.

Coney: + Austin/Adler.

Orion, my comments enthrall and delight. More than once I've been approached by Amy's many friends in the publishing business — in earlier days, by city weeklies and other papers, more recently by trade-paperback types — asking if I was interesting in compiling highlights of this work into a series of collections which could be marketed independently. (Of course, Amy would get a substantial cut right off the top.)

But there's just never enough time! No, my reward is that these casual scriblings offend the officious… And simultaneously make Amy's kind & thougtful readers feel even more comfortable in their own skin!

Coney, here's kind a rolling index in a Twitter thread. Note the dates, ranging from 8/31 to todayish.

Crid,

Ah yes... the argument that your written word would fetch a fortune on the open market... but you are just too darn busy to chase after such an enormous financial windfall (so enormous in fact that there is enough to provide others with a "substantial cut" lol).

Look, I am sure there is a market for just about anything these days... as I said before, Trump demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that this country is indeed full of suckers ready and willing to be taken advantage of.

That being said, go ahead and put yourself out there... prove what you've got... the numbers won't lie... I suspect when all is said and done maybe just maybe you will have earned enough to split a club sandwich with someone as their cut of the action.

Coney— It's a popular sport.

I'd love to hear what "major mis-step" by Trump brought about his historic loss in this election.... ~ Artemis at December 2, 2020 2:15 PM

Historic loss? A bit hyperbolic there, Artie.

And, Artie, the mis-step that cost him the election is before the loss, not after.

As for mis-steps, oh, I don't know. Take your pick.

Trump's campaign did not reach out to influencers at local levels (e.g., Cornyn all but guaranteed the nomination of Joe Biden).

Given the predictable media blackout of any bad news for Biden, his campaign waited far too long to emphasize the revelations about Hunter Biden's dirty dealing, sexual escapades, and drug use documented on his laptop - relying heavily on election day turnout being fully aware of any October surprise, not accounting for early votes by mail. 45% of Biden voters told pollsters they'd never seen the revelations before they voted; 9.4% said they would not have voted for him if they'd known.

Trump's over-the-top performance in the first debate was designed to throw Joe Biden off balance and confuse him, but when Trump saw that it was not working, he didn't switch it up.

His biggest mis-step was sticking to the strategy and conduct that won in 2016, when he could run as an outsider, deep into the 2020 election when he could not.

Biden's campaign adjusted when it saw that it could hide Biden in the basement and rely on Trump's mis-steps rather than send its candidate out to make his own. It called on John Cornyn to endorse the candidate, putting him over the top in South Carolina and the South. As a candidate, Biden was less than optimal, but his campaign ran him well. Trump's campaign never got control over its candidate and went down in flames.

You seem to have snipped off a piece of that sentence. ~ Artemis at December 2, 2020 2:15 PM

That's what ellipses are for, Artie, to show that a part of a quote has been left off, usually a part not relative to what is being argued or a part that is extraneous.

An ellipse is not used to indicate a pause - as you're using it. A comma indicates a pause.

The ellipse is three dots for the middle or beginning of the sentence and four dots for the end of the sentence - three dots for the missing section and one for the period at the end of the sentence.

Even in your own selected quotes I was talking about the national level... not specific "down-ballot" state or county level election results. ~ Artemis at December 2, 2020 2:09 PM

"A the national level" is not limited to presidential elections. It includes elections to national government positions - i.e., Senators and Congresspeople.

Those Senate and Congresspeople elections the Democrats lost are considered down ballot elections, too. It's not just a reference to county and local elections.

Besides, even "national" elections in the US are actually state-level elections. We don't elect a president, we elect electors. Candidates campaign nationally, but voters vote locally.

And those demographic shifts that you were so avid would help Democrats don't seem to have done as much as the geography that I, and The Atlantic, say will make a bigger difference in the long run.

Coney— It's a popular sport. ~ Crid at December 2, 2020 3:37 PM

Hypocrisy always is.

I made he quarterfinals in Indiana in '77. A kid from Fort Wayne smoked my ass.

(Sorry— rereading [scanning] the Agassi book tonight.)

Conan Says:

"Historic loss? A bit hyperbolic there, Artie."

Not hyperbolic Conan... Trumpian.

Here is what Trump's people had to say about his win in 2016:

https://twitter.com/kellyannepolls/status/803336493469204481?lang=en

"306. Landslide. Blowout. Historic."

That was when he lost the popular vote by 3 million votes.

If that was historic then surely Biden's victory margin of 7 million votes with the same electoral vote tally with larger wins in swing states must be even *more* historic.

I love how you rail against hypocrisy but also rail against me using the exact same measuring stick that Trump and his staff used for his 2016 victory.

If they can call that historic... then I can call this historic. That is called consistency.

I'm sorry that it has taken you this long to realize that Trump and his cronies constantly use hyperbolic language to spread their propaganda... maybe you should have taken a stand against it over the last 4 years.

You could even take a stand against it now as they constantly lie about this election being "rigged" without providing a shred of credible evidence to the courts to back up such extreme claims.

This is why you are a partisan hack.

When I use the exact same language Trump and his cronies use suddenly it triggers your sensitivities about careful use of language.

The next 4 years are going to be great fun, I can already see it.

"Artie, the mis-step that cost him the election is before the loss, not after."

Right... so his impeachment wasn't a "major mis-step".

His botched handling of the viral pandemic resulting in the death of over 250 thousand American citizens wasn't a "major mis-step".

His "major mis-step" was failing to reach out to "local influencers"... right.

"Given the predictable media blackout of any bad news for Biden, his campaign waited far too long to emphasize the revelations about Hunter Biden's dirty dealing, sexual escapades, and drug use documented on his laptop - relying heavily on election day turnout being fully aware of any October surprise, not accounting for early votes by mail."

Good grief... more conspiracy theory nonsense.

You are really far gone.

You act as if said laptop was "documented"... and yet no one was able to ever see any of that evidence either.

It's amazing Conan... Trump and his counterparts always have some conspiracy theory nonsense they are trying to peddle and when push comes to shove they can never manage to ever present the goods to anyone.

It's almost like they know their base is made up of a bunch of gullible suckers who will believe any garbage that is fed to them.

The problem is that independents were never going to buy his shenanigans without evidence.

You are literally arguing that his "major mis-step" was that he mishandled his propaganda campaign to smear someone else's children without evidence.

That you could vote for someone like that says more about your character than anything else.

"Trump's over-the-top performance in the first debate was designed to throw Joe Biden off balance and confuse him, but when Trump saw that it was not working, he didn't switch it up."

lol... because Trump doesn't do anything by a carefully laid out plan. The guy is always out of control and cannot maintain composure.

"His biggest mis-step was sticking to the strategy and conduct that won in 2016, when he could run as an outsider, deep into the 2020 election when he could not."

He didn't win in 2016 because of some wonderful strategy of running as an outsider.

He won in 2016 because it so happened that the 2016 election had the two most unpopular candidates to ever run for the presidency since we've been tracking such things.

He won because Clinton was a deeply un-liked candidate... it is really that simple.

He didn't do anything special to win in 2016, he just was running against the only candidate he could possible beat and even then it was extremely close in the swing states and he still lost the popular vote.

"Trump's campaign never got control over its candidate and went down in flames."

And this was completely predictable all the way back in March when you said Biden was toast.

It is not possible to control Trump... if you didn't learn that from his first 3 years in office you weren't paying attention.

"That's what ellipses are for, Artie, to show that a part of a quote has been left off, usually a part not relative to what is being argued or a part that is extraneous."

Ellipses are not intended to chop out relevant content.

As you are well aware the only demographics I was referring to in that conversation were age-based demographics.

When you chopped out that content you proceeded to talk about demographics in general, which could include things like race, religion, etc...

By doing what you did you created a strawman argument.

The only demographics I was referring to were age related, you know this and you cut it out anyway.

That was dishonest.

It was especially dishonest given the reality that I was very much correct about the age-based demographics playing an important roll in Trump's 2020 defeat.

""A the national level" is not limited to presidential elections. It includes elections to national government positions - i.e., Senators and Congresspeople."

No Conan... Senators and Congressional Representatives are Federal level elections.

There is only one national level election, and that is for the president.

https://study.com/academy/lesson/local-state-national-elections-in-the-us.html

"Finally, we get to the national elections, those in which all citizens of the nation can vote. Realistically, there's only one national election that we need to talk about: the presidency."

wordy

A moment ago you were going to publish a book and now you want to be an editor.

It always amazes me that the least accomplished folks in life always seem to believe that if only they had put in the effort it would have all come so easily.

No, no, it was a mistake!

He was visiting his daughter's fiancé's parents! They are a gay couple, but since Szajer is so conservative they were pretending to be a Greek Cultural Attaché and his wife. Hilarious hijinks and musical numbers ensued. They finally realized what was up, and tried to sneak out, but poor Szajer got mixed up with the gays on the way out.

After all these years, Nicolek posts a rudely satiric comment in a masculine voice.

Unless she didn't.

Crid Says:

"A kid from Fort Wayne smoked my ass."

No one here is particularly interested in your sexual escapades either.

Is there an expression in your country for "Trying too hard"?

Crid... making jokes at your expense is like shooting fish in a barrel. It takes no effort at all.

I know this must come as a shock as your inane quips take you all day to think up.

You're like George Castanza in "The Comeback".

Come to think of it you remind me of George.

No Conan... Senators and Congressional Representatives are Federal level elections. There is only one national level election, and that is for the president. ~ Artemis at December 2, 2020 6:29 PM

So, we're to believe that your stand on demographic shifts "favor[ing] progressives on the national level" meant they would only favor progressives in the presidential election, but not in any Congressional or local races? Now who's being dishonest?

Conan,

Well I certainly didn't mean this:

"prediction in this election also included a Democratic sweep of the down-ballot races and the death of the Republican Party, something about demographics being destiny." - Conan the Grammarian at December 2, 2020 12:13 PM

You stated that I predicted the "death of the Republican Party"... when all I ever predicted was that Trump was likely to lose and that demographic shifts in terms of propensity of younger people to vote would favor an "election" on "the national level".

I didn't even pluralize the word election Conan... the only national level election is for the presidency.

I didn't talk about "federal elections"... I didn't talk about "congressional elections"... I didn't talk about "state elections"... I didn't talk about "local elections".

I highlighted an election at the national level.

There is only one of those and that is the election for president.

That you tried to transform that into a prediction about the "death of the Republican Party" is the only dishonest part of this discussion and that came from you, not me.

Conan,

Also, since you won't be honest and show the rest of the quote or link to the discussion I'll do it myself:

http://www.advicegoddess.com/archives/2019/06/it-isnt-sexist.html

"Just like Trump will never be liked by progressive voters.

As it stands the demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level. That is just facts and data, not opinion." - Artemis at July 3, 2019 9:43 AM

So in the very quote you cited to demonstrate that I was predicting the "death of the Republican Party" writ large clearly indicates I was talking specifically about Trump.

And now you are saying this:

"So, we're to believe that your stand on demographic shifts "favor[ing] progressives on the national level" meant they would only favor progressives in the presidential election, but not in any Congressional or local races? Now who's being dishonest?" - Conan the Grammarian at December 3, 2020 4:16 PM

You Conan... you are the one being dishonest... you are always the one being dishonest.

You literally quoted me talking specifically about Trump... chopped out the part about Trump... and then declared tried to use that as "evidence" that I made some extreme prediction about all of the down-ballot elections.

What a weasel.

It was a musical theatre reference, Crid!!!!

What a weasel. ~ Artemis at December 3, 2020 6:30 PM

That's "Mr. Weasel" to you.

"Favor progressives on the national level" expands your Trump-centric comment to "the national level," literally by definition. It does not leave it narrowly meaning the presidential election.

If you want to see the full quote, here it is:

Progressive candidates are not going to be liked by conservative voters... they will never be liked by conservative voters.

That isn't who they are appealing to.

Just like Trump will never be liked by progressive voters.

As it stands the demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level. That is just facts and data, not opinion.

"Progressive candidates" and "demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level" don't limit your claim to a presidential election, as you say they do. You to Trump halfway through, as an example, not as the subject of your claim.

I'm willing to accept act that you intended your comment to refer only to the presidential race, but it sounds more like you voiced an expectation of a Democrat sweep in 2020 and now you're trying to walk that back.

Your responses to my later argument support this assumption:

The point is that more younger folks are voting... particularly the millennial generation (i.e., the Boomers children).

There was a spike in the 2018 election from all previous election years where that generation consistently voted at ~20%... in 2018 that generation votes at ~40%... the voting rate doubled.

Like it or not the millennial generation skews progressive.

Feel free to ear mark this discussion if you like, but I think you aren't recognizing the data-based reality of the situation come 2020.

AND

First off it is 2 years Conan, not 4... we are talking about the 2018 election and the upcoming 2020 election.

Secondly, in the 2018 election the millennial generation split roughly 60% and 40% in terms of progressive versus conservative association:

The 2018 election you mention several times to bolster your argument was a mid-term election and not a presidential one.

None of us got all we expected in this election. I expected Trump to do better than he did and that didn't happen. I expected Biden's scandals and mental decline to expose him as a weak candidate. His campaign defied the odds and successfully kept those problems under wraps.

Trump's campaign boasted rallies with thousands, while Biden-Harris rallies were anemically attended by only small groups of mostly-catatonic voters. One rally actually had zero attendees.

Biden should have lost, even to Trump. His mental lapses and basement strategy would have been a loser in any other campaign year and against any other candidate. His campaign generated only lukewarm voter enthusiasm on its best day.

In addition, I expected that if Trump did lose, it would be a Democrat sweep, a reverse of the 1928 Al Smith bloodbath that seemingly swept Democrats into the wilderness, but that didn't happen either.

American politics have always been kinda squirrelly. The 2020 election was a squirrel unicorn. In very few elections has the top of the losing ticket had stronger coattails than the top of the winning ticket. In this one, voters overwhelmingly rejected progressive politics. However, they also rejected a polarizing non-progressive president in favor of a progressive-leaning quasi-moderate who barely campaigned and who looked finished in the early primaries.

Or did they?

The fact that 47% of polled voters believe funny business occurred in the vote counting does not augur stable times ahead for future elections, nor for democracy in America. That almost 1/3 of the winning side's voters are included in this skeptical near-half of the voters makes it doubly alarming.

We need a large majority of voters to believe that our elections are honest and above board; and we need those things to actually be honest and above board. If we lose voter faith in our elections, we lose democracy. The sloppy carelessness with which states are currently treating vote collecting and counting is dangerous - not simply in this election, but going forward as well. That 47% can easily become a majority.

Both parties need to work together to restore the voters' faith. First, however, both need to acknowledge the lack of faith and the need for the voters to have faith in democracy; and not just dismiss the issue as partisan sour grapes.

Conan,

For god sakes just cut the shit already.

No legitimate or reasonable reading of anything I've said could lead someone of good faith to conclude that I predicted any of the following things:

1 - "a Democratic sweep of the down-ballot races"

2 - "the death of the Republican Party"

Nor did I say anything about "destiny" here:

"something about demographics being destiny"

That is all made up nonsense based on nothing more than your own imagination.

Furthermore, once again you are being dishonest when you say "If you want to see the full quote, here it is". You didn't offer the full quote... but I'll add it in for fun:

"As for likability... this is not a useful distinguishing criteria for the upcoming election.

Trump is the most disliked political figure for decades.

The "likability" of any opponent is therefore not going to be a problem.

To some extent this entire discussion is also silly.

Progressive candidates are not going to be liked by conservative voters... they will never be liked by conservative voters.

That isn't who they are appealing to.

Just like Trump will never be liked by progressive voters.

As it stands the demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level. That is just facts and data, not opinion." - Artemis at July 3, 2019 9:43 AM

Not only did I mention Trump once... I mentioned him twice.

This statement was in direct response to an ongoing nonsense discussion about "likability" where you asserted that Trump being "authentic" would somehow resonate with young voters and that would cause him to be more likable amongst that cohort:

"When I worked in fashion marketing, "authenticity" (whatever that means) was the key attribute that Millennials and Gen-Z were looking for in a brand.

I suspect that transfers to politics as well. Pandering to an audience or identity group diminishes a candidate's authenticity.

For all his flaws, Donald Trump is, on the campaign trail, pretty much who he is in real life. He doesn't pander much (all politicians pander to some degree)." - Conan the Grammarian at July 1, 2019 8:06 AM

I was responding to a comment about Trump and the presidential race in 2020... I mentioned Trump twice in my response... I referred specifically to a (singular) national level election in 2020.

You are just being a dishonest nitwit as always.

Since we are on the subject of predictions though... let's go to the very end of the thread, shall we?

"My prediction is simple... the millennial generation will vote at a rate at or greater than 38% and their overall voting will skew largely progressive with a proportion greater than 57% in favor of progressive candidates.

Done... what is your prediction?" - Artemis at July 8, 2019 5:10 PM

That seems pretty direct and concrete when it comes to the demographics I was talking about... and I will also point out that as always you were an intellectual coward and suddenly disappeared when push came to shove for you to put your money on the table with a prediction of your own.

Needless to say, I was correct about Trump losing, and my demographic prediction regarding youth voter turn out and voting trends seems on target as well (final numbers aren't in yet, but all of the exit polling so far indicates I am correct).

You on the other hand have struck out in spectacular fashion. In fact nothing you said in that thread came to pass.

Conan,

Just to spell it out nice and clear for you since you don't seem to get it. Let me respond to this dubious objection of yours.

""Progressive candidates" and "demographic shifts for the 2020 election favor progressives on the national level" don't limit your claim to a presidential election, as you say they do. You to Trump halfway through, as an example, not as the subject of your claim."

The "progressive candidates" I was directly talking about were the candidates within the upcoming Democratic primary.

You were busy talking about several potential candidates including Warren, Harris, and Gillibrand.

What I said was a direct response to all of the potential Democrat candidates you were mentioning in terms of likability for the upcoming presidential election.

As I said... you are just a dishonest weasel.

Conan Says:

"None of us got all we expected in this election. I expected Trump to do better than he did and that didn't happen. I expected Biden's scandals and mental decline to expose him as a weak candidate. His campaign defied the odds and successfully kept those problems under wraps."

No Conan, it didn't defy "the odds".

All of the polling leading into the election predicted a win for Biden.

That lead was consistent over the entire course of the election:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

There is not a single moment in time when the aggregate polling indicated that Biden was behind.

Only people stuck in a conservative thought bubble were surprised by this and actually thought Trump had this in the bag.

I really wish you would take stock of your own failure to accurately capture what was going on here and acknowledge the deep flaws in your reasoning... but instead you keep chalking up the whole thing to a fluke... that "Biden should have lost, even to Trump."

No Conan... he shouldn't have lost... only one Democratic nominee could ever have really lost to Trump and that was Hillary Clinton in 2016. That was the outlier... not what happened in 2020.

This was entirely predictable. Just as in 2016 I accurately predicted that Clinton didn't have it in the bag and Trump had a real chance of pulling it off.

"We need a large majority of voters to believe that our elections are honest and above board; and we need those things to actually be honest and above board. If we lose voter faith in our elections, we lose democracy."

Yes we do, but unfortunately Trump loyalists are too far gone to listen to facts or reason.

They literally do not believe it was possible for Trump to lose.

The rational members of society just need to move forward and help the cult to deprogram.

Political life is going to be difficult for deeply conservatives to accept moving forward.

Just to make things clear for you, the state of Texas is likely to turn blue during a presidential election at some point during your lifetime. I can show you the numbers and the trend if you are interested... when that happens Republicans will never be able to win another presidential election again without completely changing its platform.

Oh, Artie, you really should learn to use quote marks. I never said anything about "the odds." I said nobody got everything they expected out of this election. Even you, Artie.

No, Artie, you didn't get everything you expected out of this election. And, yes Artie, for all his faults, Donald Trump is authentic. He's the same asshole in person that he is in public.

You really need to learn to deal with people as people. They're flawed, as human beings tend to be. Even you, Artie.

The internet makes it okay to brutally dismiss people won don't agree with you or whose expertise is in fields you consider inferior. And, Artie, you've been a champion of dismissing people you consider inferior because their book-learning skills aren't up to yours.

But, Artie, sometimes those people know things you don't, things that have value in the world.

From what I've seen you post, Artie, I wouldn't give you a week to survive in the wilderness. Your skills are all book-learned. Not all necessary skills are.

Conan,

I think something has gone seriously wrong with your brain.

Let's try and recap, shall we:

"I never said anything about "the odds."" - Conan the Grammarian at December 4, 2020 8:22 PM

Yes... you did... you said it verbatim right here:

"His campaign defied the odds..." - Conan the Grammarian at December 4, 2020 3:46 PM

You literally said "the odds" a few hours ago, and I quoted you directly... and then you denied saying it at all.

Seriously Conan, is everything alright?

"No, Artie, you didn't get everything you expected out of this election."

Conan, everything I predicted came to fruition.

Trump lost... young voter turnout was at high levels and skewed heavily left... I even predicted Trump would refuse to acknowledge his loss.

I don't even know what you mean to say I didn't "get everything" I expected. I make predictions based on data and observation, not based on what I wish might happen.

You make predictions based on wishful thinking, which is why you are almost always wrong.

"And, yes Artie, for all his faults, Donald Trump is authentic. He's the same asshole in person that he is in public."

Nonsense, the guy is phony as a 3 dollar bill. Only conservative dupes fell for his idiocy.

He has fake hair, fake tan, fake business success... the guy is a life time con artist.

Not authentic in the least. Just because you fell for it and continue to fall for it doesn't mean 80+ million people don't see through it easily.

"But, Artie, sometimes those people know things you don't, things that have value in the world."

For fucks sake Conan... take your own god damn advice.

The way we determine whether or not people know things or have a reasonable understanding of the world is based on their demonstrated ability to make reliable and accurate predictions about future events.

You are consistently wrong... I on the other hand am consistently correct.

You need to listen more and talk less.

Christ, you're a tedious gasbag, Artie.

Conan,

You are just ashamed at how you've been showing your ass for years constantly saying that you knew what was going to happen... spouting forth your nonsense ideas constantly... and then saying we would find out in 2020.

Well 2020 is here... you were wrong about everything and instead of being the least bit introspective and wondering how you could have been so very wrong while someone else you refused to listen to was so very right... you resort to calling me a "gasbag".

Even your attempted insults don't make any sense... a "gasbag" is someone who talks at length about unimportant things. We've been discussing the political future of the country... and I've been engaging in that conversation with you and others.

Either you think the political future of the country is unimportant, or you consider yourself to be a gasbag as well.

Regardless of all that, what I do know without a shadow of a doubt is that like always you are full of hot air.

Even your desperate attempt to cast aspersions are strained and weird:

"From what I've seen you post, Artie, I wouldn't give you a week to survive in the wilderness."

Really Conan... you really believe an internet blog associated with political conversations is in some sense designed to give you deep insight into other peoples wilderness survival skills?

You're a joke... but you are a joke that is going to be really frustrated in the coming years because you refuse to gain a real grasp on reality.

I get why you identify with Trump though, he cannot acknowledge when he has lost or made a mistake either. Such behavior is antithetical to personal growth and development.