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Bloggermann Likes Zogby
And Zogby likes Kerry. Bloggermann is MSNBC's Keith Olbermann, and here's what he calls the "Redskin rule and Carter corollary," posted at 5:51 p.m. EST (sorry, wouldn't give me a permalink to the exact item):

John Zogbys polling was generally considered the most accurate during the crazed 2000 election, and if he maintains that measure of reliability, you can go to sleep now.

Zogbys final tracking poll, state by state, released at 5:30 EST, suggests the prospect of a Kerry win by a margin of 311 Electoral Votes to 213, with only Colorado and Nevada too close to call (and representing just fourteen votes between them).

Oh and by the way, he has Mr. Bush winning the popular vote, narrowly an irony of biblical proportions that one Democratic pollster rated a one-in-three chance just last week.

It should be noted Zogby is doing a lot of extrapolating. In the two from Column A (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania), two from Column B (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin) states, he gives them all to Kerry. But Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are listed as trending Kerry based on exit polling. The smaller three states show Kerry up by 5-6%.

If hes right, it upholds both the Redskin Rule (a bloody football team would be 18-0 predicting who gets to run the country) and the Carter Corollary (no incumbent is reelected nor defeated narrowly).

A lot of people remaining uncertain that hes right.

Uncertain, but hopeful. With all the butterflies in my stomach right now, I could start an insect zoo.

Posted by aalkon at November 2, 2004 5:11 PM


Remember, I don't have a TV, but why are people concerned with Keith Olbermann? Isn't he part of the Tucker Carlson/Bill Oreilly continuum of sexual dysfunction for which cable news is renowned?

Fifteen years ago I remember him on the news mocking Charles Barkley for being misquoted in his autobiography.

But Florida was called for Bush 20 minutes ago. Sorry Mr Zogby, Sorry Mr Olbermann.

Posted by: Cridland at November 2, 2004 9:42 PM