What's My Sign?
That's it below. As I've mentioned before, I don't have an astrological sign, because astrology is irrational crap-think, and I'm not a crap-thinker.
Via Respectful Insolence, Skeptico's post on why astrology is bunk. He points to confirmation bias, copying Austin Cline's notes on it:
Confirmation bias occurs when we selectively notice or focus upon evidence which tends to support the things we already believe or want to be true while ignoring that evidence which would serve to disconfirm those beliefs or ideas. Confirmation bias plays a stronger role when it comes to those beliefs which are based upon prejudice, faith, or tradition rather than on empirical evidence.
And points to "The Forer Effect," copying from the Skeptic's Dictionary:
The Forer Effect refers to the tendency of people to rate sets of statements as highly accurate for them personally even though the statements could apply to many people.Psychologist Bertram R. Forer found that people tend to accept vague and general personality descriptions as uniquely applicable to themselves without realizing that the same description could be applied to just about anyone.
And he proposes "The Astrology Challenge":
Here’s my challenge to proponents of astrology: show me how those ancient people figured it all out. You know, all those detailed rules, and charts you use. I’m not talking about the astronomical data – where the sun and planets were at given times. I’m talking about the meaning given by astrologers to the astronomical data: how did they ever work out which specific astrological aspect affected which personality characteristic and in what way? Because if they didn’t derive it somehow, they must have just made it up. And if they made it up, it’s very unlikely to be true. So my challenge to you is prove me wrong: show me it was not made up.How do we know what we know?
I’ll give you an idea of what I mean. If you want to know how we originally figured out any scientific fact, the information is available somewhere, and you can often repeat the experiment to test it for yourself. For example, if you want to know how Galileo knew that the planets orbit the Sun and not the Earth, you can read how he observed the phases of Venus through his telescope. What he saw was exactly what you would expect to see if Venus did orbit the Sun. If you have a decent amateur telescope you can confirm Galileo’s observations yourself.
Remember, as I gently reminded a woman who found great significance (she called it "proof numerology works") in the fact that her father died on the day her grandson was born: Coincidence is not causality. And if you believe in astrology, no, you're not "an air sign" or anything else, just an airhead.
My sign is YIELD.
Gary Steiger at September 22, 2006 4:05 PM
Yeah, astrology is bunk, but I also think it's pretty harmless. I've never heard of anybody blowing up an office building because their moon was in Sagittarius. I think the time spent debunking astrology would be better spent tackling irrational beliefs that do more harm to the world.
Gary S. at September 22, 2006 8:47 PM
"Pretty harmless"!?
When the U.S. president's wife gets him to use this nonsense as a basis for decision making, we all get screwed (in the bad sense). If you haven't read the article, at least look at the picture.
http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19880516,00.html
Note also that the nonsense is also used as a basis for discrimination. E.g.: "I wouldn't want a Pieces working in this job."
ron at September 25, 2006 8:51 AM
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