The Idiots' Guide To Idiots
Michael Shermer takes on handwriting analysis. Part One:
Part two:
A possible explanation for the believers? The Forer effect:
The Forer effect refers to the tendency of people to rate sets of statements as highly accurate for them personally even though the statements could apply to many people.Psychologist Bertram R. Forer found that people tend to accept vague and general personality descriptions as uniquely applicable to themselves without realizing that the same description could be applied to just about anyone. Consider the following as if it were given to you as an evaluation of your personality.
You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic.Forer gave a personality test to his students, ignored their answers, and gave each student the above evaluation. He asked them to evaluate the evaluation from 0 to 5, with "5" meaning the recipient felt the evaluation was an "excellent" assessment and "4" meaning the assessment was "good." The class average evaluation was 4.26. That was in 1948. The test has been repeated hundreds of time with psychology students and the average is still around 4.2 out of 5, or 84% accurate.
In short, Forer convinced people he could successfully read their character. His accuracy amazed his subjects, though his personality analysis was taken from a newsstand astrology column and was presented to people without regard to their sun sign.
My astrological sign? I don't have one. If people press me for it, I tell them it's "No Parking/Street Cleaning" or "Don't even think of parking here."
Read your horoscope? It's bullshit. But, here, I'll help you have a better life. Next time you do read your horoscope, time how long it takes you. Add up the seconds a day, including the time retrieving or locating your horoscope, and then add them up by week, month, and year. Next, stop reading your horoscope, and put the minutes, days, weeks, and months you'd spend into something productive and worthwhile. (Even picking your nose would be a start.)
Like Jim Morrison, I am a Sagittarius, the most philosophical of all of the signs.
jerry at October 17, 2007 1:28 AM
(I put as much faith in it as Jim Morrison did.)
jerry at October 17, 2007 1:30 AM
Amy,
Definitely a fascinating pair of videos! One of the more insightful things I've seen from YouTube in some time!!
Thanks for sharing.
Robert (Vancouver) at October 17, 2007 1:49 AM
Next time you see someone going on about their horoscope, ask them about Dahmer, Stalin and Hitler. Their day was once "a ten", and they were advised, "trust your instincts where a relationship is concerned".
Radwaste at October 17, 2007 3:10 AM
But can't we just find them entertaining? I'll admit to occassionally reading my horoscope, reading the fortune in my fortune cookie and I even had my palm read once. Party tricks can be entertaining and give people something to laugh or chat about. I don't think there's anything wrong with a bit of downtime. Not every activity has to have a serious outcome or every conversation have to be a serious debate.
Must admit though, when my sister-in-law said she and a friend were going to a psychic, I ASSummed it was just a novelty and said, "Oh, that sounds like fun." Now I've discovered she goes regularly....that IS scary. I've already got her Christmas present....A Guide to Rational Living.
moreta
at October 17, 2007 7:38 AM
Why would information that's purported to be about you but is actually totally random be entertaining?
I always found "The Angry Stars" to be entertaining. But that's because they were just made up and angry. (Can't find them on the Internet - maybe they're under a different name, but they're obviously made up and very rude..."You will die a painful death after being smacked across the mouth by a chimp"-type stuff.
Amy Alkon at October 17, 2007 7:42 AM
If you want to read minds, listen to the the woman's voice crack at the top of her first interview bite (approx 1:52 on the first clip). She must have known the gig was up, and that Shermer was bringing some game. By that point in her career, she probably thought she could get into the bullshit psychology business without ever getting challenged: 'Of course handwriting analysis tells you secrets; every just knows that it does!'
There are people who can read minds, though. See http://urltea.com/1ope
Crid at October 17, 2007 8:03 AM
I guess its not really the information that's entertaining, but the conversation it creates. I wouldn't read it by myself unless I'd read every other tidbit in the newspaper and was STILL waiting for the doctor (I'm in Canada). Reading the fortune from your cookie out loud and adding "in bed" to the end is amusing. Sure its base humor, but not a bad way to tell who's too PC to have any fun!
moreta
at October 17, 2007 8:05 AM
> its not really the information
> that's entertaining, but the
> conversation it creates.
Back when I was tail-chasing horndog at bars and parties, flirtations were derailed when women brought up something astrological. Staring into her blue-shadowed eyes, I'd wonder why she thought it was alluring to pretend to be stupid.
Sagan gave a speech at the National Press Club once, and ripped into 'em pretty good: 'You argue that your editorial allotment is precious. But you have daily columns of astrology, and you don't even have monthly columns for astronomy.'
Crid at October 17, 2007 8:19 AM
Touche, Crid. For what its worth, I've never asked anyone their sign or assigned any level of credibility to the topic. Not really a good way to introduce yourself. However, it can be useful to ward off pests in the bar!
moreta at October 17, 2007 9:03 AM
"...unless I'd read every other tidbit in the newspaper and was STILL waiting for the doctor..."
Moreta,
Take a book for your downtime at the doctor's!
(Amy's right. Picking your nose is more fruitful than reading horoscopes.)
Jody Tresidder at October 17, 2007 9:10 AM
Speaking of astrology anyone here a fan of Weird Al??
WEIRD AL YANKOVIC LYRICS
"Your Horoscope For Today"
Aquarius
There's travel in your future when your tongue freezes to the back of a speeding bus
Fill that void in your pathetic life by playing Whack-A-Mole seventeen hours a day
Pisces
Try to avoid any Virgos or Leos with the Ebola virus
You are the true Lord of the Dance, no matter what those idiots at work say
Aries
The look on your face will be priceless when you find that forty pound watermelon in your colon
Trade toothbrushes with an albino dwarf, then give a hickey to Meryl Streep
Taurus
You will never find true happiness - what you gonna do, cry about it?
The stars predict tomorrow you'll wake up, do a bunch of stuff, and then go back to sleep
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
Gemini
Your birthday party will be ruined once again by your explosive flatulence
Your love life will run into trouble when your fiance hurls a javelin through your chest
Cancer
The position of Jupiter says you should spend the rest of the week face down in the mud
Try not to shove a roll of duct tape up your nose while taking your driver's test
Leo
Now is not a good time to photocopy your butt and staple it to your boss's face, oh no
Eat a bucket of tuna-flavored pudding, then wash it down with a gallon of strawberry Quik
Virgo
All Virgos are extremely friendly and intelligent - except for you
Expect a big surprise today when you wind up with your head impaled on a stick
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
Now you may find it inconceivable or at the very least a bit unlikely
that the relative position of the planets and the stars could have
a special deep significance or meaning that exclusively applies to only you,
but let me give you my assurance that these forcasts and predictions
are all based on solid, scientific, documented evidence, so you would have
to be some kind of moron not to realize that every single one of the is absolutely true.
Where was I?
Libra
A big promotion is just around the corner for someone much more talented that you
Laughter is the very best medicine, remember that when your appendix bursts next week
Scorpio
Get ready for an unexpected trip when you fall screaming from an open window
Work a little harder on improving your low self-esteem, you stupid freak
Sagittarius
All your friends are laughing behind your back (kill them)
Take down all those naked pictures of Ernest Borgnine you've got hanging in your den
Capricorn
The stars say that you're an exciting and wonderful person, but you know they're lying
If I were you, I's lock my doors and windows and never never never never never leave my house again
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
That's your horoscope for today (that's your horoscope for today)
That's your horoscope for today
That's your horoscope for today (yay yay yay yay yay)
That's your horoscope for today
lujlp at October 17, 2007 11:31 AM
I always feel a combination of disappointment and embarrassment when the astrology topic comes up... it's a feeling of "why am I here with this person right now? how did I end up in such a pathetic conservation?"
Lena at October 17, 2007 11:59 AM
That whole "what's your sign?" thing lost its effect on me with only one listen to Zappa's "Disco Boy". (run into the toilet and comb your hair) o_O
Flynne at October 17, 2007 12:08 PM
This all sounds like what magicians call "cold reading". I actually tried this at a party once, on some people who didn't know me well. Had two of them utterly convinced that I was telepathic. The key is to make it vague, but make sure to end it with something complimentary: "You are sometimes difficult in relationships, but in the end, you are always loyal to the people that you love." Who'd disagree with that?
Cousin Dave at October 17, 2007 2:29 PM
Sagan is exactly right. The sad thing is, readers would riot if they dropped these ridiculous astrology columns from the paper.
Amy Alkon at October 17, 2007 2:33 PM
Well get a load of this: I was hanging with a couple of cool cats when one, a woman, held her arms out like she was a scale, started swaying back and forth and said: "there's a Libra in this room". Whoa! How did she know? What are the odds? Only two others and she didn't know our birth dates? One in six? Funky.
Of course if she does that often enough it's likely she end up freaking someone out.
Proud Libra at October 17, 2007 3:48 PM
The other day I had someone ask what my sign, and my ex's signs were. I asked what it mattered, and they insisted, so I told them, they said immediately "A Pisces and an Aries! Well, no wonder you split up! I'm amazed you staid together for all those years at all!"
They could have just as easily said "Oh, you're both in your mid 20's, all those years together were pretty good for your age group's relationship statistics." and not have sounded like an idiot.
Or even better, they could have left it alone. ;)
Edi at October 17, 2007 4:51 PM
Seeker! Don't be afraid here in the New Age, 'cause there's a seeker born every minute!
Gog_Magog_Carpet_Reclaimers at October 17, 2007 4:56 PM
> lost its effect on me
> with only one listen
Flynne, I want you to be my bride.
Crid at October 17, 2007 7:42 PM
Gog, you too, especially if you're a girl. That was a great record.
Crid at October 17, 2007 8:33 PM
lujlp - Nice! I enjoy the Onion horoscopes.
moreta - I, too, must confess a certain juvenile pleasure in adding "in bed" to fortune cookies.
As far as asking about someone's sign, I know some people do it for the stated purpose, but I wonder if frequently it's just an excuse to be able to find out someone's birthday.
Shawn at October 17, 2007 10:12 PM
Thanks Shawn. Despite the suggestion that everything I do should be fruitful (must agree that mining boogers is more fruitful than reading a horoscope), I was heartened to see the author at Amy's link for Bad Astronomy give permission to read the horoscope ads and have a chuckle.
moreta at October 18, 2007 6:22 AM
Oh joy, Crid's a polygamist. What's his sign?
Flynne at October 18, 2007 6:27 AM
Here's my favorite horoscope.
That's Your Horoscope for Today
Jamie at October 19, 2007 11:53 AM
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