Did You Say SUV or SIV?
Even a "Motley Fool" hadn't heard of the SIV -- the Structured Investment Vehicle -- as little as a month ago. Emil Lee writes for The Motley Fool:
Now I'm sweating buckets that the estimated $400 billion in SIVs outstanding might derail the capital markets. What happened, and what does it mean for the rest of us?At the risk of oversimplifying, an SIV is an entity set up when a bank buys long-term assets and finances them by issuing short-term commercial paper (CP). The bank gets a fee for managing the SIV, but can keep the SIV's debt off the balance sheet because it doesn't take on the credit risk. However, many banks agreed to give the SIV a liquidity backstop -- meaning the bank ensures that the SIV will be able to refinance its short-term CP debt.
Whoops!
That liquidity guarantee is coming back to haunt the banks. Until very recently, it would have been almost laughable to predict that the commercial paper markets would come to a screeching halt. The CP markets are extremely deep and liquid.
However, these are not normal times, and the CP markets, especially the asset-backed CP markets, are very, very unaccommodating right now.
What now?
With many banks facing obligations -- based on contracts or their reputations -- to provide liquidity backstops to their SIVs, it's very important that the banks solve this problem. If the banks can't find CP buyers, they will have to fund the SIVs themselves -- no easy task given the amounts of money in play here.
There's an estimated $400 billion in SIVs outstanding, and according to The Wall Street Journal, Barclays (NYSE: BCS) recently injected $1.6 billion into one of its SIV affiliates, HSBC (NYSE: HBC) had an SIV affiliate with $35 billion in debt, and Citigroup (NYSE: C) manages SIVs with a whopping $80 billion in assets.
Not to worry! The government will bail everybody out! ("The government" being a polite shorthand for "Fuck you, taxpayers!") Here's another "Motley Fool," Seth Jayson, explaining Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's idea of a solution:
Gotta be some way out of this other than the way we came...Now, Paulson -- like all the other politicians in Washington -- is scrambling for a way to fix the mess without any pain for anyone. Obviously, this is absurd. Billions of dollars in fictional equity were created via the housing Ponzi scheme, and these guys are dead set on preserving as much of it as possible, no matter what the cost.
"We must help as many able homeowners as possible stay in their homes," Paulson said. "Foreclosures are costly and painful for homeowners."
Yeah, well, too bad. That's what happens when you allow people who make $50,000 a year to buy $500,000 homes on gimmicky loans that apply a pretend interest rate up front.
Now, Paulson says lenders should work with home owners to refinance these overpriced houses before the interest rates reset and they can no longer afford them. Surely, he knows that the funding for those loans was provided only on the condition that they would someday reset at rates that make medieval usurers look kind.
That's sleazy, but that's what naive, deluded, or greedy buyers signed on for. Take away that reset, and you take away the incentive to lend the money in the first place. If Paulson thinks he's got a credit crunch now, just wait and see what happens in a world that dictates new loan terms as soon as it's politically expedient. Lending will get even tighter and home prices will drop like rocks.
...Someone's gotta pay. And if it's not going to be the debtors leaving the homes, and if it's not going to be Hank's buddies on Wall Street, who does that leave?
Us. The responsible majority of Americans. Remember us? The people who didn't go out and do stupid things with our money?
And here's a great analogy, excerpted from Patrick.net:
SUV Bailout To Keep America Humming
Lawmakers in Washingon are near final agreement on a proposed $400 billion bailout of SUV buyers. The massive amount of debt taken on by drivers in an attempt to ensure that their vehicles are significantly bigger than their neighbors’ vehicles has resulted in millions teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. “We need to keep these people in their Hummers, at whatever cost to taxpayers” said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Paulson is expected to announce details of the plan as soon as Wednesday, said sources familiar with the matter. With more than 2 million drivers facing higher interest costs and the possible loss of their oil-company-friendly vehicles if they cannot meet the payments, the future of US overconsumption is at stake.
Step right up for the "foreclosure bus tour"!
Patrick.net link via Consumerist







A couple weeks ago someone linked to a New Yorker article about a homeless guy in Phoenix who abused his body on the streets and racked up $1 million or so in hospital/paramedic costs. I thought to myself, "Here's an irresponsible person determining where the public spends their money. Something is wrong here."
We seem to have the same thing here, at a higher class level: irresponsible people setting public policy.
doombuggy at December 14, 2007 5:33 AM
Just scooted all over the place finding this very, very funny "analysis" of the lending chaos (saw it first on Metafilter).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM
Jody Tresidder at December 14, 2007 5:57 AM
Spanks for that Jody! It would've been hysterical if it hadn't rung so true, especially that last line about pension funds! o_O
Flynne at December 14, 2007 6:16 AM
My pleasure, Flynne!
It's one of those bits of satire you just yearn for other people to enjoy too.
Jody Tresidder at December 14, 2007 6:39 AM
How about I tell my landlord to go to taxpayers for my rent? Geeze. Why would people even want these handouts if they could get them? I mean am I the only one who thinks it sucks to be dependent on the kindness of strangers? Does no one (present company excepted) want that good feeling that comes from standing on your own two feet any more?
Oh, and the reason people like me who can't afford to lose it, don't invest is because it is a risk.
Donna at December 14, 2007 9:37 AM
Donna - as good as it feels to stand upon one's own two feet, it's just so much more satisfying to sit on one's ass.
Preferably with a beer.
brian at December 14, 2007 10:58 AM
"Billions of dollars in fictional equity were created via the housing Ponzi scheme, and these guys are dead set on preserving as much of it as possible, no matter what the cost."
This is by far away the best description of how we got into this mess and why we're not getting out of it in one sentence that I've ever heard. This idiotic idea of getting people to re-negotiate with their lenders won't work for one reason, the principal is too much for them to afford at any interest rate. That moron who bought a 500,000 dollar house who makes 50K can't really afford that house if the interest rate were zero. But he didn't think that he would have it that long, he thought it would go up another hundred percent in a few years and sell it for a hugh profit. Kinda reminds me of those idiots who were paying thousands of dollars for a rare beenie baby. That still makes me laugh. One way or another they are going to try to stick the taxpayer with this mess and I don't think it will work because I don't think the congress can slide this past the public. What has to happen is that the financial community has to admit that real estate is not worth what they sold it for and that fictional equity is not there, that they screwed people by colluding to inflate real estate prices and invented forms of creative financing to facilitate selling over priced homes to people who could never afford it. They would then have to re-negotiate loans at actual realistic lower prices. And I think that is about as easy or likely as pulling a bad tooth out of a mountain lion with no anesthetic.
Bikerken at December 14, 2007 2:32 PM
The blogger Iowahawk wrote a pretty fuuny post about the subprime "crisis".
http://iowahawk.typepad.com/
(It's the third post down, entitled "Please Don't Destroy My American Dream". The spam-filter here blocked the perma-link.)
David Crawford at December 14, 2007 8:03 PM
http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2007/12/please-dont-des.html
Amy Alkon at December 14, 2007 8:15 PM
Went through fine for me above. Perhaps you forgot to put your name on the comment form or something? Please everybody e-mail me if you get a spam note so your IP won't get blocked (I need to rescue the spam-blocked post). Thanks!
Amy Alkon at December 14, 2007 8:16 PM
Again, a look around Florida will find you $400 thousand-dollar condos. For a LONG time, I have been wondering where all this money was coming from.
Radwaste at December 14, 2007 8:50 PM
That Iowahawk post is ruthless, I love it.
"Who am I, fucking Oliver Wendell Smallprint? "
That's going on the fridge.
martin at December 15, 2007 7:55 AM
I find it hard to have sympathy for anyone who was willing to buy more house than they could afford, knowing that the adjustment would come.
Just like Tulip Bulbs, people got in thinking that the ride would never end.
Well, it did. Granted, I don't expect to sell my house any time soon, but even with the small bubble that CT had, I have no reason to expect my house value to go up short term, even with the improvements I've done.
Someone ought to hold Congress, and the race pimps that pushed them to account for a goodly portion of this. If the banks weren't being pressured to say "yes" when they should have been saying "no", we wouldn't be in this mess now.
brian at December 15, 2007 10:48 AM
>> "Who am I, fucking Oliver
>> Wendell Smallprint? "
>That's going on the fridge.
Word; eye-level, by the handle.
Crid at December 15, 2007 12:45 PM
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