"Based on that imperfect knowledge, the risk of returning HCWs transmitting Ebola to others is low, but not zero.

As long as the risk is not zero, it requires a value judgment to decide what degree of individual liberty is reasonable"

There is nothing on this entire planet that has *zero* risk. Risk is always a balancing test.

I don't know who Michelle Meyer is, but I suspect she has never taken statistics, or she would not have made such a foolish statement.

As Crid would probably say, we don't quarantine people who have been exposed to the flu, which is an airborne virus, and influenza kills far more people every year, than Ebola ever has.

This whole thing has been politicized from the start.
The easy thing to do, would have been to stop travel from the affected areas until the outbreak is over, but that was politically unacceptable.

I'm not panicked about Ebola, but at the same time think it is sensible to keep infected people from trying to outrun it, and putting the cost of their treatment on the American taxpayers, when they get sick over here.

Too bad we cant send them to Great Britain for treatment. It would serve a purpose in exposing the NHS for the clusterfuck that it is.

As a libertarian, how can you have any questions about this issue? Scientifically and philosophically, she should be free to go about her life as she wants.

There's a size-hyooge difference between "Ebola-Infected Or Potentially Infected Healthcare Workers," and it's an arrogant *government* that wants command of your life without knowing which is which.

That fact others are sketchy about infectious disease does not mean that you or I should be expected to coddle their fears.

Australia clamps down on importing Ebola.

If you're old enough, cast your mind back to the Reagan years, as foolish people described possible responses to GRID & HIV...

We've been through this before, haven't we?

I can be difficult to maintain patience with control-minded paranoids.

Whoops, it can be difficult to be etc.

I will be very difficult no matter what. .

I thought vaccines caused ebola?

I mean, like, in *that* case you knew better than to let arrogant authorities from government intimidate people you were supposed to be caring for, right? You knew better than to let your own fears get the best of you and cause suffering to others.

Also, note well Isab's mention of flu... Beginning in a few weeks, influenza --almost certainly from interior China-- will begin killing thousands of Americans. That is going to happen... It's essentially a metaphysical certainty.

We've lost one (1) guy fromThe Big Ebe, annif I remember right, he wasn't actually even ours per se so to speak one might say... If one were an asshole. But by being here for his last times, he had the best possible shot at survival... And, we should hope and pray, diminished suffering and horror.

Follow the Gog link. Isn't it weird how other countries are always considering their behavior as reflections of the example of the United States, even when they're pissy about it?

Also, what Isab said about journalists and statistics.

We're not talking about quarantining people because they have ideas we don't like but because they have been around a deadly and contagious disease that doesn't show up immediately.

Libertarianism is about leaving people be unless they are hurting others. If you've just treated a bunch of Ebola patients, do we want you feeling up the pole on the subway after you maybe just wiped your nose from sneezing and then sticking your fingers in a bowling ball? How many of you want to grab on to that subway pole or hold that bowling ball?

http://nypost.com/2014/10/23/nyc-doctor-tests-positive-for-deadly-ebola-virus/

Scientifically and philosophically, she should be free to go about her life as she wants.

Let me remind you: her rights end where my fist begins. She doesn't have a right to endanger me and mine just because she doesn't think she's infected.

Maybe she isn't. Maybe she is. Would you take that chance? I'm thinking the answer will be a big fat NO. But I could be wrong.

"Early, overconfident and absolutist pronouncements by CDC and other officials helped create that crippling distrust."

That's because our fearless President proclaimed, back at the start of this thing, that Ebola would never ever occur in the United States, and therefore nothing needs to be done, and you don't see that man behind the curtain. It's very clear that the CDC's first priority is to not allow the facts to embarrass the Administration, and actually getting a handle on the situation (whatever the situation actually is) comes in a distant second. Ebola is a viral disease that has a ridiculously high mortality rate, and can be spread by less-than-intimate means of contact. Being leery of it is a rational response. That said, the risk is still (probably) very low, and there is legitimate debate about what measures are actually necessary. But it's irrational to say that no measures are necessary, and people who are saying so should be dismissed as the worthless political hacks that they are.

(And after this is all over, I don't ever want to hear another single goddam word about how the Democrats are the "pro-science" party.)

And a side point:

"Here's a recent article with background on where this number comes from (pretty good, but not perfect, data), which suggests that the tail of the distribution of onset of symptoms includes somewhere between 0.1-12% of Ebola patients who exhibit initial symptoms after 21 days."

From 0.1 to 12 is two orders of magnitude. I'm not sure that qualifies as "pretty good" data.

I love facts and figgers more than anybody, and I understand that the odds of contracting Ebola from Ms. Hickox are very..very low. But if I'm in the café or C-store when she pedals her bike into town, I'm runnin' the other way, guessing a lot of her fellow Mainers might do the same. A lot of folks would be happy to kick back at home for a couple weeks, seems like Ms. Hickox is trying WAY too hard to be right.

That fact others are sketchy about infectious disease does not mean that you or I should be expected to coddle their fears.

Yes, this. I am frankly amazed that Amy is ignoring the best scientific evidence we have and sanctioning a civil liberties violation in response. Have I traveled through the looking-glass and and am in the anti-Amy blog? Will there be a post extolling the virtues of a day started with a big bowl of healthy whole grains?

The current evidence indicates that a) ebola is not contagious until the patient is symptomatic and even then it's the people who are in contact at the worst stages of the illness who are most likely to be at risk (e.g., two nurses given no training on donning protective gear treating a dying man are the only infections to date); b) the death rate in 3rd world countries where health care is poor to non-existent and people practice some rather dangerous funeral rites is not what we expect in a country with hospitals and fluid IVs.

Yes, we should take precautions to limit the spread of a deadly disease, but so much of what is being done now is driven by fear rather than rational thinking.

"best scientific evidence we have"

See the science above. Links are live at the original post.

"the risk of returning HCWs transmitting Ebola to others is low, but not zero."

From the CDC:

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/qas.html

What are body fluids? Ebola has been detected in blood and many body fluids. Body fluids include saliva, mucus, vomit, feces, sweat, tears, breast milk, urine, and semen.

Can Ebola spread by coughing? By sneezing?
Unlike respiratory illnesses like measles or chickenpox, which can be transmitted by virus particles that remain suspended in the air after an infected person coughs or sneezes, Ebola is transmitted by direct contact with body fluids of a person who has symptoms of Ebola disease. Although coughing and sneezing are not common symptoms of Ebola, if a symptomatic patient with Ebola coughs or sneezes on someone, and saliva or mucus come into contact with that person’s eyes, nose or mouth, these fluids may transmit the disease.

What does “direct contact” mean?
Direct contact means that body fluids (blood, saliva, mucus, vomit, urine, or feces) from an infected person (alive or dead) have touched someone’s eyes, nose, or mouth or an open cut, wound, or abrasion.

How long does Ebola live outside the body?
Ebola is killed with hospital-grade disinfectants (such as household bleach). Ebola on dry surfaces, such as doorknobs and countertops, can survive for several hours; however, virus in body fluids (such as blood) can survive up to several days at room temperature.

I R A Darth Aggie is right: "She doesn't have a right to endanger me and mine just because she doesn't think she's infected."

That person also doesn't have a right to do what it will likely do to businesses if she walks in the door.

Again, if you have just gotten back from Africa, from treating Ebola patients, it is reasonable to require precautions to protect people who've just been living their lives back in New York or Maine to not be infected due to your choices.

The only people in my opinion who should be worried about getting Ebola in the U.S. right now are those treating the active patients. This is where the CDC has really dropped the ball. Providing gowns and linking to a web page on their use?? This is grossly inadequate.

I work with space flight hardware that is highly susceptible to contamination. You don't just hand people gowns and point them toward the clean room. People have to be trained on how to get into their gowns without contaminating them. For the nurses, I would bet dollars to doughnuts that that is where they were infected: in the act of taking off the protective gear.

Once people are in their gowns, they have to be rigorously trained to avoid contaminating acts that are second nature activities, such as touching their glasses with a gloved hand and then touching the hardware. Hell, we had a guy at Goddard Space Flight Center take off his glasses with his gloved hand and place it on the flight hardware. And another engineer who got pissy and defensive when it was pointed out that he had a gap of bare skin between his glove and sleeve.

The current effort should be strongly geared toward better treatment protocols but locking down an asymptomatic nurse is just bad political theatre.

There's a nurse who just returned from West Africa in there area where I live who is staying home for the next three weeks...because some people do the right thing without being forced.
http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/central-texas-nurses-voluntary-ebola-quarantine-co/nhwFf/#20a7a309.3708586.735536

I won't start to worry about it unless a real outbreak occurs. I think people are so scared, though, because it seems like a pretty awful way to die. Plus, 70% fatality rate doesn't sound very promising, does it?

To some extent, the first 2 weeks or so of quarantine are pointless - patients are not infectious until the time symptoms appear. Which is also, alas, when a blood test can be reliable: Ebola stays in spleen or liver until so far advanced that it is forced [back] into blood and then lodges in other systems as well. While a biopsy of those organs might allow earlier clear/infected diagnosis biopsies are themselves difficult and somewhat dangerous.

> We're not talking about quarantining
> people because they have ideas we
> don't like but because they have been
> around a deadly and contagious disease
> that doesn't show up immediately.

What makes you think so? What makes you think the power to quarantine wouldn't be as readily abused as the power to probe the underwear and seize the belongings of air travelers?

> "She doesn't have a right to endanger
> me and mine just because she doesn't
> think she's infected."

Fuck that with a stick. YOU have a right to lock yourselves in your goddamn houses, sink your hands into your shorts, and wait out the apocalypse.

Sheezus, kids.

> Let me remind you: her rights
> end where my fist begins.

Oh, that's darling.

Every time I come to this blog I learn something about human nature.

It's almost never something admirable.

Maybe I think Aggie's a fuckheaded piece of shit.

So I say we lock up up in house house for three weeks.

His family will be permitted to drop groceries on horse porch once every three days. If they can afford it. No outgoing... No garbage collection or anything, can't chance it.

And actually, let's make it five weeks because safety margin,

THERE'S A LOT WE DON'T KNOW
ABOUT THIS DISEASE.

So this is our opportunity to grab our dicks with both hands and REALLY start fucking around with other people as an expression of our own scientific illiteracy and interpersonal cowardice.

Beginning with that fuckface Darth Aggie, who disagrees with me about stuff.

Also, maybe the gays. For old time's sake, y'know? I always hated those people with all my heart, and it would be like a Reagan's-80's reunion tour for Duran Duran and Christi Lauper. Next year we can do Negroes and women.

Let me remind you: her rights end where my fist begins. She doesn't have a right to endanger me and mine just because she doesn't think she's infected. ~ Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at October 30, 2014 6:12 AM

Your right to swing that fist ends at her nose (ebola-ridden snot or not).

"Your right to swing your arms ends just where the other man's nose begins." ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes

Sick or not, she still has rights.

The trick in this case is to enable the government to temporarily (very important point, that) quarantine someone for a potentially infectious disease without giving it the right to quarantine (arrest) someone for anything it decides to call a public danger.

That's not an easy thing to pull off.

Currently (and in general), we're better off with the government's ability to arrest being restricted than we are with her ability to move about being restricted.

==============================

On the nurse's personal behavior: she's being incredibly selfish and thick-headed.

No one's going to remember her as the hero of civil liberties that she imagines herself to be.

She'll be remembered as the woman who put her own desires ahead of her neighbors' safety. And I'll wager that, going forward, few of her neighbors are going to want to have her as their nurse or as their friend.

Science doesn't have all the answers, people.

So this is our opportunity to grab our dicks with both hands and REALLY start fucking around with other people as an expression of our own scientific illiteracy and interpersonal cowardice.

+1 to Crid again.

Do we not have enough events in our history where ignorance of consequences combined with fear has led to violations of people's freedoms?

I don't care if the nurse is selfish or abrasive. As someone just said recently on the subject of civil liberties, "Nobody Needs To Protect Speech About How Kittens Are Cute And Bunnies Are Furry." People on the front lines of these cases are usually not our most delightful citizens.

Sorry, Amy, I side with the nurse. If she followed protocol to protect herself from being infected, she has no reasonable chance of being infected. Should we capitulate to unreasonable chances? No, because then we'd all live in plastic bubbles with all the contagions that exist now.

The law does not require her to quarantine, then neither the local nor the federal government have the right to force her.

Governor Chris Christie recently forced an asymptomatic nurse to quarantine against her will, whom he pronounced "obviously ill." She was not. The only testing done was an incompetent nurse placing a hand on her forehead and pronouncing her febrile. When the supposedly infected nurse asked if her temperature could be ascertained with a thermometer (you know, the way we're supposed to do it?), she was refused.

I hope she sues Christie for wrongful imprisonment, and that Christie is further charged with practicing medicine without a license.

And the 'tards.




Also, teh cripples.

Sorry for today's 12:13PM typos.

My fingers get all clumsy WHEN I'M ENRAGED BY THE COCKSUCKING IDIOCY OF PANTY-PISSING PIMPLEBRAINS.

Query!: What does Darth Aggee most often hold "where [his] fist begins?"

Like I said, seekers, flu season is on the way. It's going to be happening all around you. Donut shops, breakrooms at work, lines at the grocery, streetcorners.

Snotdripping influenza carriers are going to be sneezing their way through your most-intimate bio-realm in a matter weeks, if not days... Handling your foodstuffs... Manipulating your bills & coinage... Fondling the goods and merchandise coming to your home... Maybe even fucking your mistress. From behind!

Well, what are we going to do about that? Again, statistically speaking, THOUSANDS OF THOSE PEOPLE ARE GOING DO DIE ANYWAY. That is a genuine truth, one which is also an actual fact. I'm not kidding.

And over there stands Darth Aggie, who thinks he's got a right not to be "endangered." And he's got a fist, and at the end of it he's got... Well, nothing much besides the 2nd Amendment to Constitution of the Yoonited States of 'Merica.




So this is going to be a rilly entertaining holiday season.

Error bars.

Hyooge difference between the human race's experience with flu and with ebola.

Length of time of that experience.
Numbers of people exposed and affected.
Amount of scientific analysis of the two viruses.

So if the CDC said ebola is not contagious until symptoms show up and the CDC also said the flu is not is not contagious until symptoms show up you could ask, what are the error bars surrounding those two conclusions.

If the CDC said ebola is not likely after 21 days of no symptoms and the CDC also said the flu is not likely after 21 days of no symptoms it would also be salient to ask what are the error bars surrounding those two conclusions?

What is the error bars surrounding rates on infection?

How contagious is it?
How quickly can it spread?
How quickly can it mutate?
How deadly is it?

These are things we know about flu. These are things science is currently studying about ebola.

And this is what the CDC says about flu:

> The Flu Is Contagious

Most healthy adults may be able to infect other people beginning 1 day before symptoms develop and up to 5 to 7 days after becoming sick. Children may pass the virus for longer than 7 days. Symptoms start 1 to 4 days after the virus enters the body. That means that you may be able to pass on the flu to someone else before you know you are sick, as well as while you are sick. Some people can be infected with the flu virus but have no symptoms. During this time, those persons may still spread the virus to others.

I do wonder what would have differed in reaction to Kaci Hickox if she had reentered the US via California (Jerry Brown) and been subjected to the California ebola quarantine versus New Jersey (Chris Christie).

If she followed protocol to protect herself from being infected, she has no reasonable chance of being infected. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 30, 2014 1:15 PM

The nurse who got infected in Dallas followed the protocol that existed at the time.

Any protocol is only as good as the knowledge available when it was created.

What we don't know is the major part of what makes epidemics scary to most people and what causes them to panic into mobs.

> Hyooge difference between the human
> race's experience with flu and
> with ebola.

Boolshit... We've known about Ebola since I was in high school. There haven't been any grand discoveries. Nor, despite the PORNOGRAPHIC, masturbatory fantasies of so many commenters here, have there been any stunning "mutations."

Thousands will die from influenza. THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

You're worried about infectious disease, or you aren't.

Pick a team, Pilgrim.

> How contagious is it?
> How quickly can it spread?
> How quickly can it mutate?
> How deadly is it?

Seriously?

You're an infant.

@"As a libertarian, how can you have any questions about this issue? Scientifically and philosophically, she should be free to go about her life as she wants"

It is not a 'libertarian right' to go around potentially risking infecting others with a poorly understood rapidly spreading contagious disease with a high death rate - if you accidentally infect someone after knowingly working with high-risk patients, it is IMO criminally negligent manslaughter.

If you understand the basic biology of what a virus IS, it is obvious that the claim that you "can't infect someone if you are pre-symptomatic" is bullsh-t and violates everything our entire body of scientific knowledge tells us. Fact: By the time you are exhibiting even the most minor of symptoms, basically every part of your body is teeming with literally millions of viral pathogens - your sweat, your blood, your tears, your saliva, your semen, etc. And it (basically) only takes one viral pathogen to infect someone else. The risk of infection is thus simply a matter of statistics - i.e. it's lower risk while you're pre-symptomatic and higher risk when you are visibly symptomatic. Not zero.

If you deliberately expose your body to potentially deadly infectious pathogens, then no, it's not violating your rights to expect you to be cautious for 21 days just to make sure you don't accidentally kill innocent people.

Here's the aspect of the story that all of the above is ignoring like all get-out.

President and CDC, a month ago: "There will never be a case of Ebola in the United States, under any circumstances whatsoever. No measures need to be taken."

Conclusively proven false.

President and CDC, now:

"There will never be another case of Ebola in the United States, under any circumstances whatsoever. No measures need to be taken."

Sorry, jack, saw that movie already. I'm not paying to see it again.

(In case the above is too allegorical: I don't trust anything Washington or the CDC says about Ebola. They already blew that, and now they are waaaaaay more concerned with covering their asses than they are with actually addressing the issue. State and local governments may be reacting out of fear, but what else are they supposed to do? They don't have experts on tropical viral diseases. Doing nothing has already been tried and that didn't work. At some point you have to take your best guess. It may turn out to be wrong, but at least you made an effort and didn't just persist in the course of action that already failed once.)

Conan: The nurse who got infected in Dallas followed the protocol that existed at the time.

No, she didn't. She failed to wipe the outside of the vials before removing her protective gear. Protocol exists for a reason.

^ And just FTR I *am* a libertarian. Libertarianism just doesn't mean "I get to kill people if I want".

I don't believe in imposing travel restrictions, but I do agree with imposing some reasonable quarantine on healthcare workers or others who put themselves at risk of infection.

As for Ebola being small in numbers, relatively speaking, yes - but it's not the absolute number of infections that's cause for concern, it's the rate of spread of infection - it's currently literally exponential.

I do wonder what would have differed in reaction to Kaci Hickox if she had reentered the US via California (Jerry Brown) and been subjected to the California ebola quarantine versus New Jersey (Chris Christie). ~ Posted by: jerry at October 30, 2014 1:40 PM

Andrew Cuomo (Democrat) has imposed the same standard in New York that Christie imposed in New Jersey. Of course, the true liberals don't like Cuomo since he dared dared to defy the public employee unions.

The US military quarantines soldiers coming back from the hot zones in a protocol very similar to the Cuomo-Christie standard (21 days).

Hickox was released from New Jersey quarantine after the White House pressured Christie to let her return to Maine, where she had agreed to remain in quarantine at her house.

The fact that both governors, Christie (New Jersey) and LePage (Maine), are Republicans is probably driving a certain amount of the media sensationalism surrounding Hickox's detainment, as well as her behavior itself ("Look at me. I defied those nasty Re-thug-licans!").

She may have been less willing to put Jerry Brown, a Democrat, into a tight spot, but judging from her self-promoting behavior, I doubt it.

==============================

The only testing done was an incompetent nurse placing a hand on her forehead and pronouncing her febrile. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 30, 2014 1:15 PM

You know for a fact that the testing nurse was "incompetent?"

According to Hickox herself, she was tested twice with a forehead scanner at the Newark airport and found the second time to have an elevated temperature (101°F).

Granted, her treatment at the airport was unnecessarily gruff - the quarantine protocol had only just been imposed so the procedures were still being put into place.

All those who think Kaci Hickox has a 'right' to walk freely, I say put your money where your mouth is and line up to let Ms Hickox cough and sneeze in your face, if you are so confident.

All those who think Kaci Hickox has a 'right' to walk freely, I say put your money where your mouth is and line up to let Ms Hickox cough and sneeze in your face, if you are so confident.

Posted by: Lobster at October 30, 2014 2:36 PM

I hope, *when and if * there isn't a single new case of Ebola traced back to the doctor who apparently partied all over Manhattan and Brooklyn before developing a fever,

that some of this
Straw man hysteria and these false analogies will die down,

----but I doubt it.

Straw-man hysteria? If there are no further infections, it will only be due to dumb luck.

http://nypost.com/2014/10/29/cdc-admits-droplets-from-a-sneeze-could-spread-ebola/

"CDC admits droplets from a sneeze could spread Ebola"

"Ebola is a lot easier to catch than health officials have admitted — and can be contracted by contact with a doorknob contaminated by a sneeze from an infected person an hour or more before, experts told The Post Tuesday.

“If you are sniffling and sneezing, you produce microorganisms that can get on stuff in a room. If people touch them, they could be” infected, said Dr. Meryl Nass, of the Institute for Public Accuracy in Washington, DC.

Nass pointed to a poster the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention quietly released on its Web site saying the deadly virus can be spread through “droplets.”

“Droplet spread happens when germs traveling inside droplets that are coughed or sneezed from a sick person enter the eyes, nose or mouth of another person,” the poster states.

Nass slammed the contradiction.

“The CDC said it doesn’t spread at all by air, then Friday they came out with this poster,” she said. “They admit that these particles or droplets may land on objects such as doorknobs and that Ebola can be transmitted that way.”

Dr. Rossi Hassad, a professor of epidemiology at Mercy College, said droplets could remain active for up to a day."

Pointing out scientific facts about what a virus is is not a 'false analogy', and we need to rely on more than dumb luck if we are to do a better job of fighting infectious diseases.

And the point us rational people are trying to make is that the flu is at least 100 times as contagious, more widespread, and also carries a mortality rate. If you want to start quarantining for Ebola, you better start quarantining for the flu and any other contagious disease that runs a chance of killing you.

Just a few facts:

Fact: Number of patients in the general population who have contracted Ebola: Zero.

Fact: Number of people who flew with the Ebola infected nurse who developed Ebola: Zero.

Fact: Number of people who lived with the Ebola patient who eventually died: Zero.

"My heart goes out to her because she's someone who has been trying to help others and is obviously ill." --New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Fact: Governor Chris Christie is a fatassed, lying, faux-compassionate piece of shit who should be charged with kidnapping, wrongful imprisonment and practicing medicine without a license.

Conan: According to Hickox herself, she was tested twice with a forehead scanner at the Newark airport and found the second time to have an elevated temperature (101°F).

And when she was tested at the hospital with more reliable oral thermometer readings, she tested at a non-febrile 98.6.

Her supposedly elevated temperature was an artifact of being illegally detained against her will.

By the way, I assume this will put an end to all the whiny posts that infest this blog complaining about the TSA. Don't pretend you believe in civil rights. You don't.

You want people quarantined? Then you get a goddamned law passed. You don't detain people against their will.

So I actually bothered myself to do a little research. I went off looking for a source for Ebola deaths by year, and I came across this World Health Organization page. Allow me to summarize a few things.

Ebola was first identified in 1976, in central Africa. That is where all previous outbreaks have taken place; this current one is the first ever in any other part of the world. WHO identifies four strains of the virus (five, counting Reston virus, but that one apparently is asymptomatic in humans). I didn't copy down the total cases, but the WHO page says the historic mortality rate is close to 50%. Deaths by year since the disease was first identified:

1976: 431
1977: 1
1979: 22
After 1979, no cases were reported until 1994. (It is possible that some cases were missed since the investigation effort was not as focused then.)
1994: 31
1995: 254 (all in the Democratic Republic of Congo)
1996: 67
Again, no cases were reported for several years, this time until 2000.
2000: 224 (all in Uganda)
2001/2: 97 (the table combines these two years for some reason)
2003: 157
2004: 7
2005: 10
2006: 0 (no cases reported)
2007: 224
2008: 14
2009: 0 (no cases reported)
2010: 0 (no cases reported)
2011: 1
2012: 50
2013: 0
2014: 4920 so far, per a CNN report today. The WHO pages states that this year's outbreak has resulted in more fatalities than all previous outbreaks combined. It's happening in an area of the world where it has never been observed before. And it's the first time the Zaire strain of the virus has appeared since 2008. Yeah, Crid, something has changed.

The WHO pages also note that the outbreak has ended in Nigeria, a country that closed its borders to people from Ebola-stricken areas, and imposed strict protocols and quarantines.

And the point us rational people are trying to make is that the flu is at least 100 times as contagious, more widespread, and also carries a mortality rate. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 30, 2014 3:57 PM

While I'm in strong disagreement with those folks who want to give the government unlimited power to lock up any and all whom it deems a potential danger, your argument against the quarantine is apples-to-oranges.

Yes, influenza has a mortality rate. The highest case fatality rate recorded for influenza is during the 1918 pandemic: 2%. That one killed an estimated 100 million. The 2009 influenza pandemic had a case fatality rate of 0.03%.

Ebola, on the other hand, has an estimated 70% mortality rate.

In terms of which presents a greater danger to society, is it the disease that you're highly likely to catch, but very unlikely to die from? Or is it the disease you're much less likely to catch, but much more likely to die from if caught?

==============================

Fact: Governor Chris Christie is a fatassed, lying, faux-compassionate piece of shit who should be charged with kidnapping, wrongful imprisonment and practicing medicine without a license. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 30, 2014 4:04 PM

Fact? No. Opinion.

Also, there's an influenza vaccine that offers some protection against the disease. There is not an ebola vaccine.

this current one is the first ever in any other part of the world.

Um, this outbreak is currently located in Africa as well.

You people are freaking out over nothing, only two people in america have "caught" Ebola, both healthcare workers treating a symptomatic man who was systematic for more than a week. 2 out of nearly 80

No one has caught it from anyone asymptomatic.

The reason Ebola spread so well in some African countries is because they dont wash blood and shit stained corpses for the funeral where people touch the blood and shit stained corpses and then go on to eat for without washing the blood and shit off their hands.

What are the odds that custom is gong to spring up here in america?

You are far more likely to contract E coli at your friends dinner party cause Stacey's new boyfriend didnt wash his hands properly between taking a shit and passing you the potatoes.

Or from a bag of salad that the government said passed inspection protocals

As of 25 October 2014, the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has 13,703 reported cases and 4,922 deaths. The WHO thinks the actual number may be two and a half times that - as many as 15,000 deaths.

About 40,000 die from the flu and related complications in the U.S. each year. World wide about 750,000 die from hepatitis B each year. Tuberculosis is spread by coughing and sneezing and kills about 1.5 million a year world wide. About 180,000 die each year from typhoid fever, which spreads by fecal-oral route (i.e. something that came out of an infected person's butt gets into another person's mouth). About 100,000 a year die from hepatitis A, which spreads like typhoid, and many people who get it, especially children, have no symptoms and can still spread it. About 1.6 million die each year from HIV/AIDS.

Regarding the man who died of Ebola in Texas: how many places did he go, and how many people did he have contact with before his symptoms got bad enough for him to go to an emergency room? How many people in the hospital had contact with him before they figured out he had Ebola and isolated him. And yet other than two of the nurses who provided care in the hospital after they knew what he had and isolated him, there hasn't been a single other case.

If Ebola, with a mortality rate of 50%, spread as easily as typhoid, tuberculosis, HIV, hepatitis A or hepatitis B, the number of deaths would be in the hundreds of thousands; and if it spread as easily as the flu the deaths would be in the millions.

How worried are you about dieing from HIV, or tuberculosis? You should be a lot less worried about Ebola.

Should every nurse who takes care of a patient with tuberculosis, hepatitis B, AIDS, typhoid or the flu be quarantined? Of course not. And neither should the nurse in Maine. If they come down with the disease they should take steps to avoid spreading it to other people.

In some states, like the one I live in, it's a crime for a person with a potentially deadly disease to knowingly cause another person to become infected (in this state it's first degree assault) If the nurse in Maine, who knows she's been exposed to Ebola, negligently spreads it to another person she should be held accountable. Otherwise she should be expected to take reasonable precautions and left alone.

Conan: In terms of which presents a greater danger to society, is it the disease that you're highly likely to catch, but very unlikely to die from? Or is it the disease you're much less likely to catch, but much more likely to die from if caught?

Then, obviously, you believe in quarantining all AIDS patients, since AIDS has a 100% mortality rate. You're not likely to get it. But you know, always let fear govern your life.

Patrick: Fact: Governor Chris Christie is a fatassed, lying, faux-compassionate piece of shit who should be charged with kidnapping, wrongful imprisonment and practicing medicine without a license.

Conan: Fact? No. Opinion.

Well, let's see. Chris Christie "obviously" has a high BMI, and is undoubtedly considered obese. He has even taken extreme medical procedures to control his weight. So, that he is fatassed is no opinion. It's objective fact.

He pronounced someone who is not ill "obviously ill," so the fact remains he's a liar. And that also makes him guilty of practicing medicine without a license.

Since there was no need to quarantine this nurse, according to the CDC...but of course, you're of the opinion that the CDC should not be listened to. When you cough up the medical credentials, I'll actually consider whether I should take your word over the CDC's. Until then, it's no contest.

But lacking your medical bonafides, I'll go with the CDC and say that there was no need to quarantine this nurse, and assume that since Christie detained her illegally when the law did not require it, he was motivated by his own fears, not compassion.

So, that makes faux-compassion a fact.

A piece of shit? Okay, you might have me there. I happen to think that people who lie and detain people when they have no right to do so (fact) are pieces of shit. You obviously think such people are saints. Whatever.

And yes, he is guilty of kidnapping, wrongful imprisonment and practicing medicine without a license. Fact.

She could sue him for solitary confinement for a non-threat, and I'm praying that she does. It would do an incredible service in putting you panic-stricken Chicken Littles in line.

There's just so much stupidity out there.

Every day the sunshine —in recent decades, the flirtatious California kind— taps my eyelids to demand I select a new champion.

And for every dawn of 55 years, I've answered with the absolute best judgment I can offer. I wouldn't change a thing.

But still, there are doubts. How can one ever know for certain that one has spotted molten magnetic core of mortal foolishness, traversed and photographed that intersection of cowardice and willful ignorance which so damningly identifies human enterprise?

All we can do is make judgments, often relative ones.

For example:

> there's an influenza vaccine that
> offers some protection against the
> disease. There is not an ebola vaccine.

So what? You're ten or a hundred or a thousand times more likely to die in a car crash, inoculations be damned. What difference does vaccine make if you were going to thrive anyway?

Easy.

OK? Before you play varsity--

> "CDC admits droplets from a sneeze
> could spread Ebola"

--you have to recognize the hand of a professional, as the New York Post certainly is. When trying to summon the potato-famine terror in the heritage of the American heart, reaching across generations and an ocean for an Old World expression of stupidity in the world's first literate continent, the Post has no peers...

...And don't kid yourself. "Admits" is a masterstroke. An "admission" isn't about and intern who answered a press query while his boss was out of the office... No, there's no forgivable explanation. With one hundred nuances, "admits" stokes the fear of the idiot that no one knows anything, and it's time for guns and canned goods, and we need to lock up perfectly good (in fact, supremely good) nurses and kill everyone who isn't a blood relative.

God. Damn.

I'm just so RIGHT about this, while others are so wrong.

But it's late, time to sleep, and there will be a fresh and perky atrocity in the morning. I'll hit it with a stick.

OK, so what is the proper response when huge numbers of people are so horny to be worried about something so unlikely?

The proper response, when people have returned from treating people with an infectious disease that kills 50-80% of people who contract it refuse for be quarantined for a measly 21 days, is to say "WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?"

Yes, influenza exists and kills people. We can't do much about that. The argument that therefore we shouldn't worry about people who have had direct contact with patients infected with a different disease is just bullshit. It's something we can control - so we should. Yes, the risk is lower. But it can be fixed, which by and large influenza infection can't be.

Then, obviously, you believe in quarantining all AIDS patients, since AIDS has a 100% mortality rate. You're not likely to get it. But you know, always let fear govern your life.

Well that's just rubbish too Patrick. We're talking about a 21 day quarantine for people in direct contact with a disease that has a completely different infection rate, and completely different effects. Not locking people up for life. Someone who does get infected with Ebola is going to a) die, or b) recover. Waiting a short period of time to find out if you are a possible infection risk sounds like a good idea to me.

And if you do have HIV (or suspect your partner may), it's not a great idea to have unprotected sex. Is that fear governing your life? Or just being sensible?

There's a reason Australia is refusing to supply medical teams to assist with treating Ebola (instead providing financial assistance - I agree this is pathetic). It's because we don't have any legal way of getting people to remain isolated when they return either. So the options are

a) Send people there, hope like hell that they follow protocols and they work, hope like hell they agree to voluntary quarantine when they return, then hope like hell that if they don't that it's hard to transmit. Low risk.

b) Don't send anyone. If they go voluntarily, warn them they may not be allowed back into the country. No risk.

You see? This is not about "wow, it will kill less than influenza". It's about a risk of zero vs non-zero.

No, she didn't. She failed to wipe the outside of the vials before removing her protective gear. Protocol exists for a reason.

And that right there Patrick is why anyone who has been involved in treatment should be quarantined. Just in case. People fuck up. all of us.

Id rather get the flu than ebola myself

LTW what's to stop them from flying in and out via some other country?

Ok NicoleK, could happen - but that just changes it to very low risk vs low risk. The fact that someone could do that doesn't mean we say "fuck it, why bother at all". Same as that the existence of the flu/HIV doesn't mean we go "meh, what's one more disease?"

Amy, this has got to be a rare occurrence - I agree with you but disagree with both Patrick *and* Crid. This must be a serious issue.

No, Amy, LTW is wrong and so are you. You're being governed by fear, not facts, plain and simple.

Ironically, you're both just as bad as the supporters of the TSA that you find so abhorrent. The chances of TSA actually catching a terrorist are virtually non-existent. Whether their presence actually deters terrorism is debatable, but ultimately unknowable. We can't know if there are suicide bombers or hijackers out there who are thinking, "Well, we can't do another 9/11. The TSA is x-raying all of us and there's no way to get through the reinforced cockpit door."

The point is, both you and the TSA supporters aren't listening to reason. You're letting yourselves be controlled by fear.

Although admitting this is about as palatable as eating a bowl of broken glass, Crid is correct. There are probably thousands of ways you could die that are more likely than contracting and dying from Ebola. Should we now insulate your fearful and trembling little selves against them all?

And that would include the flu, since Conan himself pointed out that a disease with less than a 2% mortality rate wiped out 100 million in a years time. Those Conan has proved that the flu is more dangerous than Ebola. What it lacks in mortality rate, it more than makes up for with the fact that it's more widespread and more contagious. As for the immunization shots, need I remind you that when you get a flu shot, you're being immunized against last year's strain?

As for LTW's plaintive question, "WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE?" that's easily answered.

They have spent weeks, perhaps months, taking care of patients with a potentially deadly disease. Dressed up in burqas, working in isolation tents, disinfecting everything under the sun. By the time they're done, they're probably quite ready for a deserved vacation. Not being bullied by pompous politicians looking to score points with the fretful population who thinks they know more about how dangerous Ebola is than the CDC. Or that they can second guess the CDC's motives. "Oh, they just want to keep the Administration from looking bad."

I guess it would useless to point out that we did away with the spoils system and the CDC has civil service protection; therefore, they shouldn't give a rat's ass as to which President looks good or bad.

"I guess it would useless to point out that we did away with the spoils system and the CDC has civil service protection; therefore, they shouldn't give a rat's ass as to which President looks good or bad. "

As is the case with all other federal agencies, the senior managers are Senior Executive Service and are not protected by civil service laws. They serve at the pleasure of the President and can be dismissed at any time.

What on earth does the TSA have to do with this? Ebola is a real, low probability, but real threat. And a simple, short quarantine period eliminates that threat from returning HCWs. It's something that can be implemented easily and is effective. And I can't see why anyone would argue against it. I don't think anyone should panic either, but if you've been directly exposed, a few weeks wait to see if you're infectious is not that big a deal and transmission is controlled. After the isolation period, that's it, no further intrusion in your life.

And again, for the cheap seats, not being able to control influenza doesn't mean you ignore any other health issue. It's simply not relevant, and has about as little to do with this discussion as the TSA.

Plaintive? No, not really.

I find it amusing that I keep hearing that Ebola is spreading rapidly in West Africa so we should be sending medical teams to help, but those same people are apparently no risk when they get back. Both can't be true.

Different cultural practices have contributed, yes (washing corpses, etc). But they still got the disease. So obviously it can be transmitted through contact. Hence a short period of isolation being sensible.

I'm detecting a hint of "poor unwashed masses are vulnerable but Americans aren't" here.

Dressed up in burqas

In West Africa? Really? I'm happy to look at some evidence, but I doubt it. Rag heads are further north and east.

Then, obviously, you believe in quarantining all AIDS patients, since AIDS has a 100% mortality rate. You're not likely to get it. But you know, always let fear govern your life. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 31, 2014 12:31 AM

Hyperbole much?

The world's not black and white, Patrick.

In every post, I've said I do not favor giving the government unlimited power to quarantine and that any quarantine must be temporary, if imposed at all.

I've always maintained that Hickox has rights, even if ill (especially if ill).

The passage you quoted is one in which I asked which poses a greater danger to society, not one in which I advocated any quarantine. You maintained that if a quarantine for ebola is allowed, then the government must also quarantine for influenza since both have a mortality rate. I pointed out it was less than 2% vs. greater than 70% and that equating ebola and influenza as equally deadly threats to society is ridiculous.

When Isab brought up influenza, he advocated balancing risk in the equation. You went reducto ad absurdim (per your usual hyperbolic tantrum) and argued quarantining for influenza must be aboslute.

By the way, quarantining for influenza was a standard practice during the 1918 pandemic. Good book in the subject: The Great Influenza by John M. Barry.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Pandemic/dp/0143036491/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1414769115&sr=8-1&keywords=influenza

And no, I don't favor quarantining AIDS patients. Never have. It's not an airborne virus and the risk of catching it from someone who has it is very small.

==============================

Well, let's see. Chris Christie "obviously" has a high BMI, and is undoubtedly considered obese. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 31, 2014 12:48 AM

Yes, Chris Christie is fat.

And yes, the New York / New Jersey quarantine protocol is a bit extreme (probably too much so).

But instead of saying you disagree with a policy implemented jointly by the Democratic and a Republican governors of neighboring states, you used it as an opportunity to make a personal attack on one of them (big surprise it was the Republican governor you chose to insult).

As for his "obviously ill" statement, if you'd been told the person in question had a fever of 101°F, you might also say "obviously ill." Fevers above 100.4°F are considered medically significant. They're considered dangerous at 103°F.

If you were later told the temperature when measured on a more accurate device was 98°F, you might let that person go home, as Christie did.

As for practicing medicine without a license, you'll have to charge every parent who ever lived and gave a child cough syrup or kept them home from school instead of rushing them to a licensed doctor.

==============================

There is way too much hysteria surrounding ebola right now.

It calls for a measured response, one we're unlikely to get from the career politicians we inmates have allowed to run the asylum. Sadly, it's up to us.

Yes, ebola can be transmitted from person to person (much more easily than HIV/AIDS).

Yes, some form of TEMPORARY quarantine or isolation for people exposed to the virus may be a reasonable measure. However, any government authority to quarantine must be limited, severely limited.

Yes, influenza also kills. Over time, it's killed more people than ebola. Of course, it had a head start. Ebola was only identified in 1976. But, with a much higher mortality rate, ebola has the potential to catch up quickly if not constrained.

In fact, it may have already surpassed the fever. Doctors Susan Scott and Christopher Duncan have suggested that the Black Death of the 1300s may have been a hemorrhagic plague very similar to ebola.

Nonetheless, let's keep in mind that at this point in time more people in the US have been married to a Kardashian than have died from ebola. And those people probably suffered more, too.

And in relation to Conan's comments, I will point out one more time that the reason Ebola has become a political issue is 100% on Barack Obama. Had he simply kept his mouth shut, stayed out of the way, and let the professionals do their job, Ebola would have fallen out of the news cycle by now. But being what he is, he could not resist the opportunity to demonstrate his magnificence to the world by making a Grand Proclamation saying that the virus would not dare mess with his America.

But viruses don't care about proclamations. Ebola ignored Barack Obama! How dare it! And Obama, being the narcissist that he is, is so invested in Being Right that he continues to double and triple down on his original statement, even though that statement has been proven laughably wrong. Of course, by doing that, he's ensuring the Ebola will continue to be front-page news. (Somebody remind me again how he's this brilliant politician...) The CDC people are not stupid. They know what Ebola is and how to handle it. So why were there no protocols put into place until two health care workers in Dallas had contracted the disease from a patient? Only one possible answer: the White House pressured them not to. Because, you know, Being Right.

So here we are, 68 posts into this thread, talking about a disease that the average American is very unlikely to ever come in contact with. Why? Because we can't trust our government to tell us the truth about what's going on. Because it was more important to some narcissist politicians to Be Right than it was to actually address the problem. We've got no leadership. If we did, we'd have leaders passing along information about the nature of the problem, the risk, and what needs to be done. Instead, we're having to find the information and decide what to do on our own. Hence the 68 posts. Does a nurse in Maine need to be quarantined for public-health reasons, or does she not? We don't know, and our leaders aren't making an effort to figure it out. If the answer was apparent, this thread would be dead by now.

Conan: "And no, I don't favor quarantining AIDS patients. Never have. It's not an airborne virus and the risk of catching it from someone who has it is very small."

Very small risk indeed. And yet more than 200 times more people die from AIDS every year than have died from Ebola ever.

Cousin Dave: And in relation to Conan's comments, I will point out one more time that the reason Ebola has become a political issue is 100% on Barack Obama. Had he simply kept his mouth shut, stayed out of the way, and let the professionals do their job, Ebola would have fallen out of the news cycle by now. But being what he is, he could not resist the opportunity to demonstrate his magnificence to the world by making a Grand Proclamation saying that the virus would not dare mess with his America.

Since when has Barack Obama ever kept his stupid mouth shut on matters that were essentially none of his business? (And yes, Ebola is not really any of his business. At least not yet -- and I doubt it ever will be. As you point out, it's for the professionals.)

He weighs in on the Concord police department and their incident involving Gates, who escalated what could have been a fairly routine investigation by being a belligerent asshole. Even after admitting he couldn't know since he wasn't there -- at which point, he should have shut his mouth -- he decided that the Concord Police Department "acted stupidly." He has also decided to weigh in on the Trayvon Martin/George Zimmerman fatal encounter, though he knew nothing about it. "If I had a son," he proclaimed grandly...and idiotically. "He would look just like Trayvon." Even if so, so what? (And I notice his two daughters don't look much like Trayvon.)

So, you were expecting President Busybody to avoid chiming in, Cousin Dave? Ye gods! What were you thinking?

As for you, Conan. I don't think the AIDS comparison is hyperbolizing at all. Yes, AIDS is normally transmitted by sexual contact, but how many healthcare professionals have contracted AIDS in incidental ways that have had nothing to do with sexual contact? How many from the general population? More, I'll wager, than have contracted Ebola. So, by your logic, yes, you do agree that we should quarantine AIDS patients.

And HEP C patients, for that matter. All it takes is a little blood.

Conan: "The highest case fatality rate recorded for influenza is during the 1918 pandemic: 2%. That one killed an estimated 100 million."

Not exactly. The Spanish flu in 1918 didn't kill 2% of the people who got it. It infected and estimated 500 million people, and killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people - which was about 10% to 20% of the people who got it, or about 2.5 to 5% of all the people in the world at the time.

And that would include the flu, since Conan himself pointed out that a disease with less than a 2% mortality rate wiped out 100 million in a years time. Those Conan has proved that the flu is more dangerous than Ebola.

No, Conan has proved that, so far, flu is more contagious than Ebola.

Mortality rates prove that Ebola is far more dangerous than the flue.

[Conan:] And no, I don't favor quarantining AIDS patients. Never have. It's not an airborne virus and the risk of catching it from someone who has it is very small.

Except for nearly 2 million Americans who have contracted AIDS. For them, the risk was 100%.

If you could wind back the clock and quarantine patient zero, would you?

The last time Crid and I agreed on anything was when Amy's pompous friend Ray Richmond decided that it was his calling in life to push Merv Griffin out of the closet...something he probably wouldn't have dared to do had Merv been alive at the time.

I don't remember how long ago that was. But there was no pricking the conscience of that immense ego. "Bluster, bluster...in saying that outing Merv is wrong, we're saying homosexuality is wrong," he pontificated.

No, we were saying that outing people against their will is wrong, regardless of how we feel about homosexuality. But never mind. It was years ago. So, I doubt Crid and I are in any danger of actually agreeing again any time soon.

Buncha children.

And no, I don't favor quarantining AIDS patients. Never have. It's not an airborne virus and the risk of catching it from someone who has it is very small.

And the risk of catching Ebola it literally zero unto the sick person starts bleeding from every hole in their body. And the risk of getting ebloa stays zero for those smart enough not to get that blood in their mouth.

Doctors Susan Scott and Christopher Duncan have suggested that the Black Death of the 1300s may have been a hemorrhagic plague very similar to ebola.

If so they are fucking morons who never bother to look at the finding of ever plague grave ever unearthed. Thus far only bubonic plague has been discovered.

Not exactly. The Spanish flu in 1918 didn't kill 2% of the people who got it. It infected [an] estimated 500 million people, and killed an estimated 50 to 100 million people - which was about 10% to 20% of the people who got it, or about 2.5 to 5% of all the people in the world at the time. ~ Posted by: Ken R` at October 31, 2014 11:05 AM

Further research shows Ken R is correct on the percent of infected people who subsequently died.

Still, 20% is lower than the 50-80% rate that ebola is racking up. And that 20% was only one pandemic. Overall, influenza's case fatality rate is much lower than 20%

Ebola's doing its damage in the age of modern medicine. Many doctors the 1918 epidemic still bled patients with leeches and had gotten their medical training from apprenticeships or mail order programs, or had little to no actual medical training.

In addition, global travel was in its infancy in 1918. Most people never ventured far from home - and without World War I, they would probably never have gone to Europe. The movement of troops from the US for World War I and their close proximity in quartering spurred the spread of the Spanish Flu. Today's global air travel provides a greater potential for diseases to spread more quickly than even modern medicine can fight them.

No, Conan has proved that, so far, flu is more contagious than Ebola. ~ Posted by: Jeff Guinn at October 31, 2014 11:12 AM

I haven't really proven it.

I merely pointed out that over time, influenza does not have the case fatality rate that ebola has and that getting the flu is not (and never was) the nearly-automatic death sentence that getting ebola is.

As far as quarantining, as Patrick points out, AIDS is 100% fatal (so far) and we don't quarantine people for that.

Of course, HIV/AIDS is not as easily transmitted from one person to another as ebola, so the potential for a global pandemic (especially in developed countries) is much lower. Africa's problem with AIDS is more a behavioral issue than an epidemic of people catching a disease from casual contact.

No, we were saying that outing people against their will is wrong, regardless of how we feel about homosexuality. ~ Posted by: Patrick at October 31, 2014 11:13 AM

That's the issue I have with the near-deification of Harvey Milk here in San Francisco. His outing of people against their will led to at least one suicide, but that gets left out of the hagiographies.

And the risk of catching Ebola it literally zero unto the sick person starts bleeding from every hole in their body. And the risk of getting ebloa stays zero for those smart enough not to get that blood in their mouth.

There is an approximately 22-day period in which the person may not be symptomatic, but may be contagious. ~ Posted by: lujlp at October 31, 2014 12:39 PM

So, the risk is not exactly zero until they bleed from every orifice.

If so they are fucking morons who never bother to look at the finding of ever plague grave ever unearthed. Thus far only bubonic plague has been discovered. ~ Posted by: lujlp at October 31, 2014 12:39 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/02/science/new-theories-link-black-death-to-ebola-like-virus.html?pagewanted=1

Few medieval descriptions of the Black Death have survived over the years. It's difficult to definitely identify a disease when you can't find accurate descriptions of its symptoms and effects.

And Scott and Duncan are not alone.

Archaeologist, Barney Sloane also casts doubts on the rat-borne fleas with Bubonic Plague origins of the Black Plague in his book, The Black Death in London.

He cites the colder winter temperatures during the height of the Black Death in London as counter-intuitive for a flea-borne pestilence.

Other scientists and historians have also challenged the conventional wisdom that Yersinia pestis caused the Black Plague.

According to the New York Times, "Dr. Samuel K. Cohn, a professor of medieval history at the University of Glasgow, maintains that many other diseases are better candidates for the Black Death and its subsequent outbreaks through the early modern period than Yersinia pestis."

That should have read:

And the risk of catching Ebola it literally zero unto the sick person starts bleeding from every hole in their body. And the risk of getting ebloa stays zero for those smart enough not to get that blood in their mouth. ~ Posted by: lujlp at October 31, 2014 12:39 PM

There is an approximately 22-day period in which the person may not be symptomatic, but may be contagious.

So, the risk is not exactly zero until they bleed from every orifice.

@Patrick "You're being governed by fear, not facts, plain and simple."

We're being 'governed by fear' because there is an actual, scientific, factual, legitimate risk. This isn't some abstract concept, it's REAL LIFE - there is an actual real infectious viral pathogen, and if it infects your body, you may die. During the Black Death, people who avoided coming into contact with sick people weren't being 'governed by fear' they were just being sensible, those are the people who were more likely to survive.

Ebola DOES NOT CARE if you stand up and boldly and proudly declare that you refuse to allow yourself be 'governed by fear' - it will simply infect you anyway and kill you, if a carrier sneezes in your face or something. And no, they most certainly do not have to be 'bleeding from every orifice' ---- if it were that hard to get it, then it wouldn't have killed so many doctors and nurses already who work with Ebola patients in Africa.

Lobster, you're comparing their hygienic and sanitary practices to ours. And there is no comparison, to put it bluntly.

In related news, a judge in Maine today soundly rejected the state's request to put Kaci Hickox in a mandatory quarantine in her own home. Since the home-quarantine did not pass legal muster, we can imagine how Herr Governor Chris Christie's three-day solitary confinement would have stood up in court.

Pleeeeeeease, Kaci Hickox. Sue Chris Christie for solitary confinement for a non-threat. You'd win big.

The judge's decision read, in part, "Respondent should understand that the court is fully aware of the misconceptions, misinformation, bad science, and bad information being spread from shore to shore in our country with respect to Ebola. The Court is fully aware that people are acting out of fear and that this fear is not entirely rational."

Conan, I'd never heard that of Harvey Milk. (I know nothing about him other than what I saw in the movie with Sean Penn.) And I agree. If he did that, then his actions were disgusting. He wants to traipse out of the closet, more power to him. But he has no right to make that decision for anyone else.

In Ray Richmond's case, though, Merv Griffin was already dead. And I can understand why he waited till Merv Griffin died, though I don't sanction him doing this at all; he is not the keeper of Merv Griffin's legacy. Had he done it while Merv was alive, he might find himself banned from publishing anything in any publication outside a high school newspaper. Merv was a powerful man and from what I understand of him, he was not one to be trifled with.

Straight from the CDC's mouth:

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/infections-spread-by-air-or-droplets.pdf

"DROPLET SPREAD
Droplet spread
happens when
droplets that are coughed or
sneezed from a sick person splash
the eyes, nose, or mouth of another
person, or cause environmental
contamination, like a soiled
bathroom surface or handrails,
from which another person can
pick up the infectious material

A person might also get infected by touching
a surface or object that has germs on it and
then touching their eyes, mouth or nose.
Droplets generally travel shorter distances,
less than about 6 feet from a source patient.
Germs like plague, meningitis, and Ebola
can be spread through large droplets"

Lobster, you're comparing their hygienic and sanitary practices to ours. And there is no comparison, to put it bluntly.

Except the point under discussion is whether returnees should be quarantined. If their hygienic and sanitary practices are that bad, sounds good to me.

a judge in Maine today

Praise the Lord, we're all saved! A judge said there's no danger!

I've been talking about commonsense. I'm less than interested in legal opinions. It's not a big risk, but it's one that can be controlled. I don't care when people are supposedly asymptomatic or infectious or whatever. I simply don't care.

A short period of isolation is a good idea.

> we're all saved! A judge said there's
> no danger!

An American judge, you Canadian housewife.

Being a Canadian makes you twitchy and defensive, okay? We get that. Must you emote your liquid shame all over us this way?

You got some in Jerry's eye.

Very funny Crid. Inaccurate as always, but funny.

An American judge, you Canadian housewife.

Only you seem to get this oddly defensive "circle wagons" attitude around here. The internet is a big place for a little boy isn't it? Is the poor widdle Crid challenged by the foreigner?

I don't give a shit about the nationality of the judge. The decision was bullshit, I'd say that whoever made it.

And I'm Icelandic.

I am a healthcare worker. Not infrequently that has meant handling sharp objects stained with blood containing MRSA, VRE, hepatis C, and HIV. Never have I hesitated or worried, because the risk is negligible. I would feel the same about treating an Ebola patient. I think the frenzy over this is much ado about not very much.

Ltw: I've been talking about commonsense.

No, you haven't.

Lizzie: am a healthcare worker. Not infrequently that has meant handling sharp objects stained with blood containing MRSA, VRE, hepatis C, and HIV. Never have I hesitated or worried, because the risk is negligible. I would feel the same about treating an Ebola patient. I think the frenzy over this is much ado about not very much.

Thank you.

Of course what has the Chicken Littles gnashing their teeth is that there's been no outbreak. And believe me, they're praying for one. If there's no outbreak, then they will look like the idiots they are. But if there was one, they can say, "Told ya so!"

Want to see the Chicken Littles really get pissed? Watch this.

Number of Americans in the general population who have contracted Ebola: Zero.

Number of people who lived with the Ebola patient who died who have contracted Ebola themselves: Zero.

Number of people who flew on the plane with nurse who contracted Ebola: Zero.

Number of people who came in contact with the Ebola infected doctor who contracted Ebola themselves: Zero.

A person with the common sense God gave a radish would think, "Hmmmm...maybe I've been exaggerating the risk just a tad."

Nope. Not this crew. "Foam! Gnash! Snarl! Snort! Why it's just dumb luck! The sky is falling, goddammit!"

> And I'm Icelandic.

Same thing.

I mean,

> I don't give a shit about the
> nationality of the judge.

Well, it's very important to pretend that nationality is unimportant, right?

Amy's international visitors LOVE to come here and chatter away as if the fact that they aren't American means nothing. They "don't give a shit" about that.

In as sense, they're right! The views of these commenters are uniformly entitled, bratty, and irresponsible. Indeed, their enchantment with American events is one reason their own national character is inconsequential, meaning nothing.

I mean, you say you don't care where the judge is from, but that's ALL you care about. It's why you're here.

You came to an American blog to talk to Americans about the conduct of this American judge.

What could this even mean?

> I don't give a shit about the
> nationality of the judge.

Of course you do. Of course you do.

Sigh... you pointed out where the judge was from Crid, not me. I still don't care. I notice you've stopped defending your arguments, and resorting to making shit up as usual. But whatever you want to believe...

Back to the topic

I am a healthcare worker. Not infrequently that has meant handling sharp objects stained with blood containing MRSA, VRE, hepatis C, and HIV. Never have I hesitated or worried, because the risk is negligible.

Problem with that Lizzie, is that a whole bunch of people have been infected. HCWs included. As Patrick (who agrees with you, not me) said above .

No, she didn't. She failed to wipe the outside of the vials before removing her protective gear. Protocol exists for a reason.

I have no doubt about your professionalism, but I don't think you've worked in that environment before. Avoiding contact with sharps is not the same as contact with the outside of a vial after you've removed protective clothing. It seems a wee bit more infectious than HIV? But apparently there's nothing to worry about. So that's good.

What the hell, I may as well hammer this point home. I don't believe Ebola could become a pandemic. It burns out too fast. But, that was also the reasoning for it never spreading regionally either. That theory is down the shitter already. And while it may not become part of the local landscape, a lot of people will die in the meantime if it gets out.

Various bird flus and SARS got shut down by exactly these sorts of quarantine measures. So getting back to the original point, fighting a short period of quarantine is irresponsible and stupid.

Define "a bunch of people". Because bunches of people who came into contact with Ebola patients have not gotten infected. The question is not whether there is any or no risk. There is always risk, in everything. The question is whether the reaction is in proportion to the level of risk. On that basis, I think you and many others are overreacting. Yes, some healthcare workers have contracted diseases of all kinds from patients. The chance that I will do so is still miniscule. It is far, far, FAR more likely that something else will get me first.

I'm not interested in statistics games, and I won't be defining anything. I'll redefine it to "some" if you like. It doesn't change the point. Yes there is always risk. But here's a risk (transmission of the disease to a country where it doesn't exist yet) that can be close to eliminated by a three week isolation period! That's about as easy a decision as it gets.

The chance is miniscule, I agree. But it's a chance that wasn't there before.

Since you agree the risk is miniscule, why are you having this dopey conversation? (That's a rhetorical question.) This is a much sillier game than the statistical one.

Since the period of time to clear someone from any chance of infection is so short, why *are* we having this conversation? Because someone wanted to showboat.

A legally imposed quarantine for such a miniscule risk is showboating.

> Sigh...

Christ, you're pompous.

> you pointed out where the judge was
> from Crid, not me.

Yes, exactly. What attracted you to us is your need to talk with Americans about American expressions of policy for other Americans as if you were an American. Which you are not.

It's as if Gog had been sending George Clooney long, handwritten letters full of advice for his love life for the last two decades.

(That's a metaphor! To the best of our knowledge, Gog hasn't done that.)

LTW, I think your need to do this —so coyly, in such weak rhetoric, incessantly and for YEARS— is the stuff of mental illness.

> you've stopped defending your
> arguments

Nope, they've been perfectly well substantiated, so I've just stopped repeating them.

That's another part of the sickness we get from foreigners on this blog, the childish game-playing like that, which you share so often. You simply ignore direct and devastating challenges, shoot your nose into the air like a clumsy schoolgirl and pretend not to have read the replies.

You cross international boundaries to do THAT? You make time for this every day? For nations to which you'll never be loyal?

Well, I assume you're a bitter housewife. Maybe you're badly-socialized or a drinker, but you're tragically lonely. There's obviously a desperate lack of excitement in your political exchanges with the people of your own country.

That desperation has a cause. Maybe you're just a dullard, who moves in a social circle with other dullards. But I think what's more likely is that your social fabric is simply too colorless to inspire you. Your politicians and public figures are corrupt, oppressing the spirits of their own people, so you don't want to talk about them.... Not with us, and not even with your other countrymen.

Or perhaps your national character is simply torpid, timid and unimaginative. I've seen that happen to nations with my own eyes.

Now, over the years, there've been a lot of (similarly small-minded) people who come here to play your infantile games. (It speaks well of Amy's bright cheer and staunchly American character that you guy so often select this as a place to park.)

But you're deeply pathetic, and I wish you'd go fuck yourselves. It doesn't matter whether you're from Canada, Iceland, New Zealand or Tanzania:

When you try to talk about decency and policy with Americans, you're out of your league.

> A legally imposed quarantine for such
> a miniscule risk is showboating.

☑

Lizzie is a courteous woman with faith in America. She thinks we needn't mock the showboaters too harshly, as their grandstanding can never blossom into a truly destructive policy.

I have no such faith: I say we should ridicule the idiots mercilessly.

Wow. I just thought I liked Amy's writing, and (most) of the commenters. Thanks for the in depth psychoanalyzing though. I'll just go and rethink my life.

> I'll just go and rethink my life.

Do it quietly. If you must communicate with others during this process, let them be nearby people with whom you share opportunities and responsibilities, not distant achievers whose culture and values have so little to do with your own.

Ltw: The chance is miniscule, I agree. But it's a chance that wasn't there before.

We should outlaw cars, for your peace of mind, because there's a miniscule chance that you'll be hit by one.

The chance is miniscule, I agree. But it's a chance that wasn't there before.

We should quarantine all AIDS patients, because there's a chance that one will bleed on you. And an even smaller chance that you'll get infected with AIDS from it.

The chance was miniscule, I agree. But it's a chance that wasn't there before.

We should all live in plastic bubbles now, like giant hamster balls. Because there's a chance that you'll get an infectious disease from someone and die from it.

The chance is miniscule, I agree. But it's a chance that wasn't there before.

Thanks very much, Lizzie, for injecting some much-needed common sense into this discussion. I especially appreciate your pointing out that that far, far, far more health care workers come into contact with Ebola without contracting it, than those that do.

If a health care worker has such a trivial chance of contracting the disease, just how tiny are the chances that someone from the general population will contract this disease?

Nothing personal, Ltw. I think it's great that you can so successfully annoy Crid just by existing. How dare a foreigner comment on an American's blog?

> just by existing

If only. No, it's the cowardly (and unending) subterfuge that rankles, the shameless, needful pretension.

> How dare a foreigner

If only. The one thing LTW doesn't want people to consider is that she's a foreigner. She's achingly desperate to be regarded as our equal, as a special-mascot member of the home team… She wants to blend in so badly she can taste it.

It's no surprise that lesser commenters are oblivious to American character, even their own, in these discussions; nor that they'd be childishly suspicious of its distinctively adult comportment.

The identities of those lesser commenters are never a shock, either.