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“Trump Says Mail-in Votes Are Suspicious Because They Overwhelmingly Favor Joe Biden. He's Wrong. This isn't fraud. This isn't a scheme to steal the election. It is the very predictable outcome of the president's own words and actions” — Eric Boehm at Reason
Although Trump could still manage to win enough electoral votes, it appears he’s going to lose. And he’s the most pathetic kind of loser: a sore loser. If he loses, he’ll be ranting and whining about “massive voter fraud” until the day he dies.
JD
at November 5, 2020 10:49 PM
> he’ll be ranting and whining
That's probably true, but was anyone looking forward to his 'memoirs'?
Well, actually, has anyone looked forward to any WH memoirs?
Deal— If he writes one (own hand) and it's good, I'll vote for him in '24.
Crid
at November 5, 2020 11:19 PM
That is so not Christian. Christians aren't supposed to pray for their own will, but for acceptance of God's will.
In Luke 22, we read that Jesus was in the Garden of Gethsemane, knowing full well the fate that awaited him. But still prayed for God's will, not his own.
41 And he was withdrawn from them about a stone's cast, and kneeled down, and prayed,
42 Saying, Father, if thou be willing, remove this cup from me: nevertheless not my will, but thine, be done.
43 And there appeared an angel unto him from heaven, strengthening him.
44 And being in an agony he prayed more earnestly: and his sweat was as it were great drops of blood falling down to the ground.
On this subject, I wonder why pray for anything at all? While in college, I was performing in a play called "The Night Thoreau Spent in Jail," a shameless propaganda piece if there ever was one.
The character of Henry David Thoreau was being asked to pray for his cellmate, Bailey. He responded, "Is God so almighty absent-minded that he needs a tap on the shoulder to remind him that Adam had children?"
There's something thought-provoking about that. Does God need to be asked to do the right thing? Shouldn't a benevolent, all-powerful being be doing the right thing anyway?
As for the impending results, which look less and less favorable to Donald Trump {although there's been a few accusations of shenanigans, which I haven't sufficiently investigated to know if these have any merit), I've seen a few videos from Trump supporters. Normally, I attribute the public displays of violence to the left (because that's where it belongs), but a few ardent Trump supporters are vowing revolution if he loses.
This should be interesting, perhaps horrifying.
Patrick
at November 6, 2020 4:04 AM
JD,
He was a sore winner in 2016 so his current performance as a poor loser is par for the course.
The guy is well-known for cheating at golf because he cannot handle reality:
The only thing going into this election that I knew with utter and complete certainty was that under no circumstances would Trump concede the election with dignity and grace.
Unpresidential from start to finish.
Well see how things go over the next few days and weeks, but at this stage I am left to wonder if he would even bother finishing out his term during a lame duck session or if he would just start issuing pardons to himself and the rest of his family before trying to hide in a hole somewhere.
Artemis
at November 6, 2020 4:24 AM
Orion is left to wonder.
Crid
at November 6, 2020 5:00 AM
Crid,
The handle is Artemis... you've been confused for years.
As for being "left to wonder"... I am being generous. Trump is very likely to lose... Biden is very likely to have ~306 electoral votes... and Trump is very likely to issue pardons like there is no tomorrow.
I say I am "left to wonder" so as not to disturb the overly sensitive members of this blog.
They will need time to come to grips with what has transpired despite my many attempts to explain in detail that this has been coming down the road for years.
Artemis
at November 6, 2020 6:09 AM
"They are finding Biden votes all over the place—in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan," Trump complained today. "So bad for our Country!" To which Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) dryly replied: "It's called an election."
So we come back to the question we started with: Can Trump really be this clueless? After nearly four years of this president's self-flattering nonsense, I am beginning to suspect the answer is yes. — Jacob Sullum at Reason
JD
at November 6, 2020 6:22 AM
Orion is being generous.
Crid
at November 6, 2020 6:26 AM
Well, actually, has anyone looked forward to any WH memoirs? ~ Crid at November 5, 2020 11:19 PM
Not really.
I think Grant's are considered the last well-written memoirs to come from the pen of a former president.
Even with a ghost-writer, I think Trump's will be nonsense on a scale so large it will make Obama's unwieldy tome digestible.
Deal— If he writes one (own hand) and it's good, I'll vote for him in '24. ~ Crid at November 5, 2020 11:19 PM
I think you're safe.
If he loses, he’ll be ranting and whining about “massive voter fraud” until the day he dies. ~ JD at November 5, 2020 10:49 PM
If? Even without the suspected shenanigans, it looks like Trump would lose, however razor-thin the margin.
As for conceding, he'll make Al Gore look like a gentleman, fighting it all the way. However, despite Hillary's lashing out, I don't think it will require the military to remove him. At some point, even he will realize that the game's lost and a dignified exit is better than an undignified one.
All of that aside, we do need to clean up our election and ballot counting processes or this kind of nonsense will continue. Late-night surges in votes for one candidate with few, if any, for the other candidate, invite suspicion of shenanigans, even if legitimate. "Found" ballots that overwhelmingly favor one candidate invite suspicion.
And why is no one ever arrested or fired over ballots being "found" where they should not have ever been? The elections supervisor of Broward County in Florida was reappointed to her job despite two boxes of mid-term ballots being found in the trunk of a rental car at the airport in the next town over.
At the very least, states need to implement a chain-of-evidence procedure for ballot boxes. Free and fair elections are far too important to be left to the casual sloppiness with which too many states and politicians treat them.
Conan the Grammarian
at November 6, 2020 6:26 AM
“The only thing going into this election that I knew with utter and complete certainty was that under no circumstances would Trump concede the election with dignity and grace.”
* * * * *
Absolutely, Artemis. Not just because he’s a sore loser but also because dignity and grace are not part of his character.
JD
at November 6, 2020 6:33 AM
That Paula White clip was quite entertaining. I’d never heard of her before. She seems like a real piece of work.
JD
at November 6, 2020 6:39 AM
I've heard that Twitter is subleasing their space in Scat Fran. I guess Jack saw this coming. Will London Breed beg people to stay?
The only sensible position now is to demand a full forensic audit. If the system in any state is so broken that it can't provide one, then that state's votes should not be counted until they fix it.
As for "dignity and grace," the vicious liars who spent years falsely accusing the president of being a Russian agent, racist, and other calumnies have used up any consideration they can expect to receive in their lifetimes.
jdgalt
at November 6, 2020 8:21 AM
"At some point, even he will realize that the game's lost and a dignified exit is better than an undignified one."
Without the power of the presidency he will be abandoned by the members of the Republican party who will seek to rapidly distance themselves from him.
Pretty soon they will try and make it seem as if they never supported him at all.
I agree that it likely will not take the military to remove him from office... but his exit will almost certainly *not* be dignified.
Artemis
at November 6, 2020 8:22 AM
I can't wait for the movie!
NicoleK
at November 6, 2020 8:24 AM
Patrick,
Of course God's will be done. Some parts of the book are more specific to her horribly embarrassing performance.
"But I suffer not a woman to teach, nor to usurp authority over the man, but to be in silence."
I Timothy, 2:12
I don't want to sound misogynist, but men really are better at acting the fool.
Spiderfall
at November 6, 2020 8:50 AM
A friend of mine says that whenever he finds the teachings of Paul at odds with the teachings of Christ, he sides with Christ.
Also, what Paul suffers and what Yah will suffer are two different things. For instance, Judges 4:4 will tell you how Yah feels about women in authority.
Patrick
at November 6, 2020 9:28 AM
Conan: "All of that aside, we do need to clean up our election and ballot counting processes or this kind of nonsense will continue."
This morning, the Nevada governor, I think it was, gave all sorts of reasons why Nevada is taking so long. He did not, however, explain clearly why 40-plus states didn't have those problems. Yesterday, I heard a caller to a radio show suggest that the five remaining states are dragging their heels because, given that they're traditionally red, NONE of them wants to be the first one to give Biden even more electoral votes. (But what's taking North Carolina so long, if you see what I mean?)
On top of that, I heard (not sure of the source, right now) that the Nevada governor is truly worried about threats to the safety of the counters. So he wants to be sure that, at least, there will be no need for a recount.
Lenona
at November 6, 2020 10:09 AM
Will London Breed beg people to stay? ~ IRA Darth Aggie at November 6, 2020 6:50 AM
Under the new law, any company whose top executive earns 100 times more than their average worker will pay an extra 0.1% surcharge on its annual business tax payment. If a CEO makes 200 times more than the average employee, the surcharge increases to 0.2%; 300 times gets a 0.3% surcharge and so on. ~ from the link by IRA Darth Aggie at November 6, 2020 6:50 AM
She's gonna have to beg them to stay with that tax.
Companies in the tech sector are going to have higher average wages than companies in other sectors, so they'll be safe for a little while. This tax is gonna drive non-tech-sector companies out of The City; and, eventually, drive the tech ones out.
This, to be honest with you, is what The City has wanted for decades. Ever since San Francisco gave SalesForce.com a break on the city-imposed payroll tax, the Board of Supervisors has made clear its preference for new-economy industries over old-economy industries.
Chevron moved out to San Ramon in 2002. Even Wells Fargo is biding its time there.
Conan the Grammarian
at November 6, 2020 10:38 AM
Patrick: "There's something thought-provoking about that. Does God need to be asked to do the right thing? Shouldn't a benevolent, all-powerful being be doing the right thing anyway?"
From Carlin:
"And here's something else, another problem you might have: Suppose your prayers aren't answered. What do you say? 'Well, it's God's will.' 'Thy Will Be Done.' Fine, but if it's God's will, and He's going to do what He wants to anyway, why the fuck bother praying in the first place? Seems like a big waste of time to me! Couldn't you just skip the praying part and go right to His Will? It's all very confusing."
Lenona
at November 6, 2020 10:43 AM
Lenona,
You are seeing a difference between states that started processing mail-in ballots prior to election day and those that started processing mail-in ballots after election day.
Furthermore, ballots are counted 10 days after the election in Alaska, seven days after in Nevada, nine days in North Carolina and three days in Pennsylvania.
There isn't "dragging heels" going on here... state law defines which states get a head start and which ones wait. State law also defined when a received ballot is considered legitimate (they all much be post marked by election day).
This isn't anything new, but just as in 2000 people got an impromptu education on "hanging chads" people are now learning about the nuances of how ballot counting procedures vary by state.
Artemis
at November 6, 2020 10:46 AM
“Here's a good summary by an accountant of the many red flags that lead reasonable people to believe the Dems committed fraud:”
* * * * *
Breaking news:
RANDOM INTERNET DUDE MAKES CONSPIRACY ALLEGATION!
NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF THE INTERNET!
I’ve got some lyrics for Trump to sing (written by Springsteen back in 1985.)
I'm goin' down, down, down, down
I'm goin' down, down, down, down
I'm goin' down, down, down, down
JD
at November 6, 2020 6:46 PM
> I don't think it will require
> the military to remove him
Me neither, but if it does, that's okay. I don't worry about coup… He's too scatterbrained. The theme of his life is disloyalty, anyway. One by one, officials and functionaries will stop taking his calls, and that will be that. He wouldn't know how to lash together a team to take over a fast food restaurant by the middle of January, let alone the Executive branch. He's got nothing left to offer... Anyone joining the staff over the next two months will barely get a blog post out of it, let alone a book contract.
These months are dangerous internationally, given Joe's accelerating befuddlement and Kam's callow corruption. If Xi puts a move on Taiwan or something, we got bad times. (On top of 121,000 new cases yesterday.)
The most entertaining aspect of the next few weeks will be the firing of Fauci— That indignity will be as good as things get.
Let's all submit set designs for his new talk show. Do a tight budget, it'll be cancelled by April. Or try to imagine what Trump'll look like running for office in 2024… The guy's presumably been slamming down diet coke and Sudafed (and corrosive bitterness) for the last four years. Anyone wanna make odds on marriage #3 lasting through Christmas '21? (Some people thought the Obamas were going to break up, but four years later, they're still together.)
Crid
at November 6, 2020 7:04 PM
I may have mentioned this before, but I heard that Melania will likely NOT divorce him. Why? Because she'd get half of what he has - almost a quarter-billion of debts.
In the meantime, a male friend of mine who used to say "Obama is nothing but a Republican" and later voted for Hillary is now saying the election is being stolen.
Given that even Lindsey Graham seems to be edging away from Trump, plus other well-known Republicans who flat-out deny that there's any proof that Biden is stealing the election, I don't know where my friend gets that from.
Lenona
at November 6, 2020 8:03 PM
(Patrick — We did TNTSiJ in High School as well. I recall only the cast & crew party afterward, but given the setting, am not surprised to learn in was propaganda.)
It seems inconceivable that Trump could've married married #3 without the all-time galactic-champion pre-nup.
Crid
at November 7, 2020 6:21 AM
If Xi puts a move on Taiwan or something, we got bad times. ~ Crid at November 6, 2020 7:04 PM
He will - and soon enough after the inauguration. Xi won't wait long to make overt moves on Taiwan and the South China Sea.
...despite my many attempts to explain in detail that this has been coming down the road for years. ~ Artemis at November 6, 2020 6:09 AM
The problem with that view is that Trump has already won a larger percentage of non-white votes than any Republican has in decades; since 1960 at last report.
Another problem for that view is that voters also don't remain static. Their situations change, as do their priorities. What was a single young voter with a progressive bent even a few years ago could be a more conservative suburban property-owning, law-and-order voter within a few years.
Voter preferences also reflect the candidate and the particular situation facing the electorate at the time; and those are not always going to be advantageous for the Democrats.
I don't think the demographic advantage for Democrats that you and other Democrats keep predicting is quite as inevitable as you think. From the link:
Going into Election Day in 2020, Trump seems poised to do even better with minority voters. His gains in the polling have been highly consistent and broad-based among Blacks and Hispanics — with male voters and female voters, the young and the old, educated and uneducated. Overall, Trump is polling about 10 percentage points higher with African Americans than he did in 2016, and 14 percentage points higher with Hispanics.
[...]
Hispanics are generally supportive of legal immigration — however, many insist that people come over “the right way” and worry that illegal immigration has a detrimental effect on Hispanics already living in the United States. More than two-thirds view improving border security as a priority with respect to U.S. immigration policy.
In other words, far from alienating minority constituencies, Trump’s messaging on immigration, law and order and cultural conservativism may be an important source of his appeal to many voters of color — even as it leads many whites to distance themselves from him.
Then again, it may be an error to look at Trump to explain these patterns among voters of color, as they could just as much be a product of minorities’ dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party. In fact, Democratic attrition of minority voters predates Trump. The Big Tent party has seen losses with Hispanic and Black voters for virtually every midterm and presidential election since 2008.
We'll see what happens going forward, but I don't think you can assume an automatic advantage to the Democratic Party will accrue simply with changing demographics.
I think Biden will win this election, but he won't win by the margin the Democrats wanted, nay needed. It'll be a squeaker.
Nancy Pelosi can call Biden's probable victory a "mandate" all she wants, but the predicted Blue Wave never materialized. Republicans gained seats in the House and will likely keep the Senate. That's gonna put a damper on the party's ability to implement a Progressive agenda, but not their enthusiasm to do so.
Pelosi herself may be finished. With the party's loss of strength in the House, an electorate back home in San Francisco feeling she's not progressive enough for them, and a restless left wing chomping at her restraint, she may have a difficult time being re-elected Speaker; and she may face a serious primary challenge in 2022. Her age will also be a factor (82 by then) as well.
AOC has already said she'll throw her support behind the "most progressive" candidate - i.e., not Pelosi. Now, Nancy's a veteran campaigner, so I wouldn't count her out just yet, but she's facing a political shift and growing unrest within her own party.
Pelosi being dethroned will signal a hard leftward shift in the party. And that shift may cost the Dems voters in the future. We'll see.
Conan the Grammarian
at November 7, 2020 7:48 AM
Conan Says:
"The problem with that view is that Trump has already won a larger percentage of non-white votes than any Republican has in decades; since 1960 at last report.
Another problem for that view is that voters also don't remain static. Their situations change, as do their priorities. What was a single young voter with a progressive bent even a few years ago could be a more conservative suburban property-owning, law-and-order voter within a few years."
You really don't get it Conan.
Your entire social model is broken.
As I told you and others about 1.5 years ago... the 2020 election would have the highest voter turnout in history and it would be driven by voters younger than 40.
That grouping leans democrat by a margin of 60% to 40%.
You have this quaint notion that voters undergo a massive shift to become conservative voters as they age... but it isn't quite that simple as that. In fact scientists who study this kind of thing don't agree with that assessment.
Instead what happens is younger generations tend to be more progressive so the older generations simply appear more conservative by comparison.
Folks younger than you will always tend to be more progressive than you are... and will always tend to be more conservative than those younger than themselves.
As a result they aren't going to really shift much on an absolute scale, they will just be more conservative relative to the even more progressive youth coming up behind them.
There is also an element of folks becoming "locked in" based on their experiences growing up.
You came of age during the Reagan era... this predisposed you to being a conservative for the rest of your life.
The people 40 and under came of age during the Clinton years which was an economic boom... followed by the Bush years which was an economic disaster... followed by the Obama years which was an economic recovery... followed by the Trump years which was a complete shit show.
These folks aren't migrating to the Republican party.
That you continue to believe this will happen despite the evidence clearly demonstrating that your predictive power is lacking is why you will never really understand what is happening around you.
I also told you that Trump's response to Corona virus was going to doom him in his reelection bid... you claimed that was when he was starting to appear presidential and that he was basically a shoe in to win.
Your model is broken because you refuse to update it when you are clearly mistaken.
Artemis
at November 7, 2020 8:25 AM
As Orion "told" us, and as he/she "also told" us.
An immigrant, right? Asian. Maybe in a wheelchair. Either an only child or raised in an institution.
Crid
at November 7, 2020 9:41 AM
Also, Despite many attempts.
Dad could never say I love you?
Crid
at November 7, 2020 9:51 AM
Crid,
You are a ridiculous person... this is you at 6:17 this morning:
"is there anyway to judge another human being besides 'identity'?" - Crid at November 7, 2020 6:17 AM
and this is you at 9:41:
"An immigrant, right? Asian. Maybe in a wheelchair." - Crid at November 7, 2020 9:41 AM
You're the most "woke" identity politics obsessed person I have ever interacted with... and you demand that this blog be maintained as your personal "safe space".
Artemis
at November 7, 2020 9:59 AM
If just ONCE he'd been able to let down his guard and put an arm around you... But no.
Crid
at November 7, 2020 10:05 AM
Artemis, I wonder if obsessive-compulsive behavior may frequently be associated with narcissism? It sure is in this particular case.
JD
at November 7, 2020 10:10 AM
JD,
Narcissists are always obsessed with attacking people who don't provide them with narcissistic supply.
Crid *needs* scapegoats... as Ben has put it before, he has an "enemy list" and once you are on it you are there forever.
Do you know what it takes to get you on that list?... disagreeing with him and demonstrating that something he has stated is in error. That's it.
Narcissists cannot handle criticism of any form, their ego is too fragile. So he lashes out with irrational drivel.
Artemis
at November 7, 2020 10:45 AM
Artemis, I was with a woman for two years back around 2001. She was a narcissist and the only reason I didn't bail earlier was because we had a lot of common interests, including music; we had a similar sense of humor; she was very attractive and sexy; and the sex was fantastic.
I still remember a time she went to a book club meeting for the first time with a bunch of women we both knew (through a message board like this.) One of the women who was there later told me that, when my girlfriend showed up, almost all discussion of the book ceased because she turned the conversation into a discussion about her. Needless to say, they never invited her back.
JD
at November 7, 2020 12:08 PM
Your model is broken because you refuse to update it when you are clearly mistaken. ~ Artemis at November 7, 2020 8:25 AM
No, Artie. I'm not using a model, I'm speaking from experience.
Younger voters today may seem more progressive than older voters, but that can shift.
A Republican from 10 years ago would struggle to reconcile his views with Republicans today. Likewise Democrats. Your model assumes the parties will hold the same positions on the political spectrum they hold today.
Even Democrats like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were comfortable being openly opposed to gay marriage in 2000, but had changed their tunes by 2016. Democratic President, Bill Clinton, signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. In 2015, Democratic President, Barack Obama, sent his Solicitor General to argue against it in Obergefell v. Hodges.
On the other hand, Reagan's vocal opposition to California's Brigg's Initiative helped defeat the anti-gay ballot measure in 1978 at a time when his Republican advisors worried it was political suicide to be in support of gay people.
The Republican Party of today is not the same party it will be ten years hence, nor is it the same party it was ten years ago. The Democrat Party, too, has changed, and will change.
Whatever party represents the status quo (the more conservative side of the political spectrum) in tomorrow's elections will attract voters with a stake in that status quo. And those voters will include some who formerly voted for the other party.
Younger voters reaching voting age today may lean more progressive when compared to their elders, but that was not always the case.
You may be too young to remember, but in the early '80s, young voters under 30 went for Reagan by a pretty solid majority. Older voters preferred Carter to Reagan.
I mentioned Jimmy Carter in another thread. he was very popular with the recently enfranchised young voters in 1976, but lost them by 1980 when they went for Reagan in a big way.
In the intervening four years, the cultural zeitgeist had changed away from hippies to yuppies, so Carter's blue jeans and "aw shucks" appeal was no longer a draw for younger voters. Today's young voters recall Carter as a much better president than he actually was, based mostly on his well-publicized charity work.
A failed or widely-maligned presidency will always bleed voters of any age for the candidate behind that presidency. Carter, despite his appeal to young voters in 1976, failed to hold that appeal in 1980, a dramatic shift in only 4 years. Young voters continue to support Republican presidential candidates in 1984 and 1988; switching to the Democratic ticket in 1992 when young voters went for Bill Clinton over the candidate younger voters had preferred in 1988.
The one constant in this world is change. Voters will change, political parties will evolve, and intangibles will always be a factor in an election. Tomorrow's parties, candidates, and platforms will not be today's parties, candidates, and platforms. Tomorrow's voters will not be today's voters. The demographic changes today do not portend a permanent Democrat majority tomorrow, no matter how badly you want them to.
In the next couple of elections, Artie, your model will likely hold. After that, however, anything's possible. It's happened before.
“Trump Says Mail-in Votes Are Suspicious Because They Overwhelmingly Favor Joe Biden. He's Wrong. This isn't fraud. This isn't a scheme to steal the election. It is the very predictable outcome of the president's own words and actions” — Eric Boehm at Reason
Although Trump could still manage to win enough electoral votes, it appears he’s going to lose. And he’s the most pathetic kind of loser: a sore loser. If he loses, he’ll be ranting and whining about “massive voter fraud” until the day he dies.
JD at November 5, 2020 10:49 PM
> he’ll be ranting and whining
That's probably true, but was anyone looking forward to his 'memoirs'?
Well, actually, has anyone looked forward to any WH memoirs?
Deal— If he writes one (own hand) and it's good, I'll vote for him in '24.
Crid at November 5, 2020 11:19 PM
That is so not Christian. Christians aren't supposed to pray for their own will, but for acceptance of God's will.
In Luke 22, we read that Jesus was in the Garden of Gethsemane, knowing full well the fate that awaited him. But still prayed for God's will, not his own.
On this subject, I wonder why pray for anything at all? While in college, I was performing in a play called "The Night Thoreau Spent in Jail," a shameless propaganda piece if there ever was one.
The character of Henry David Thoreau was being asked to pray for his cellmate, Bailey. He responded, "Is God so almighty absent-minded that he needs a tap on the shoulder to remind him that Adam had children?"
There's something thought-provoking about that. Does God need to be asked to do the right thing? Shouldn't a benevolent, all-powerful being be doing the right thing anyway?
As for the impending results, which look less and less favorable to Donald Trump {although there's been a few accusations of shenanigans, which I haven't sufficiently investigated to know if these have any merit), I've seen a few videos from Trump supporters. Normally, I attribute the public displays of violence to the left (because that's where it belongs), but a few ardent Trump supporters are vowing revolution if he loses.
This should be interesting, perhaps horrifying.
Patrick at November 6, 2020 4:04 AM
JD,
He was a sore winner in 2016 so his current performance as a poor loser is par for the course.
The guy is well-known for cheating at golf because he cannot handle reality:
https://golf.com/lifestyle/celebrities/how-why-president-trump-cheats-golf-playing-tiger-woods/
The only thing going into this election that I knew with utter and complete certainty was that under no circumstances would Trump concede the election with dignity and grace.
Unpresidential from start to finish.
Well see how things go over the next few days and weeks, but at this stage I am left to wonder if he would even bother finishing out his term during a lame duck session or if he would just start issuing pardons to himself and the rest of his family before trying to hide in a hole somewhere.
Artemis at November 6, 2020 4:24 AM
Orion is left to wonder.
Crid at November 6, 2020 5:00 AM
Crid,
The handle is Artemis... you've been confused for years.
As for being "left to wonder"... I am being generous. Trump is very likely to lose... Biden is very likely to have ~306 electoral votes... and Trump is very likely to issue pardons like there is no tomorrow.
I say I am "left to wonder" so as not to disturb the overly sensitive members of this blog.
They will need time to come to grips with what has transpired despite my many attempts to explain in detail that this has been coming down the road for years.
Artemis at November 6, 2020 6:09 AM
"They are finding Biden votes all over the place—in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan," Trump complained today. "So bad for our Country!" To which Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) dryly replied: "It's called an election."
So we come back to the question we started with: Can Trump really be this clueless? After nearly four years of this president's self-flattering nonsense, I am beginning to suspect the answer is yes. — Jacob Sullum at Reason
JD at November 6, 2020 6:22 AM
Orion is being generous.
Crid at November 6, 2020 6:26 AM
Not really.
I think Grant's are considered the last well-written memoirs to come from the pen of a former president.
Even with a ghost-writer, I think Trump's will be nonsense on a scale so large it will make Obama's unwieldy tome digestible.
I think you're safe.
If? Even without the suspected shenanigans, it looks like Trump would lose, however razor-thin the margin.
As for conceding, he'll make Al Gore look like a gentleman, fighting it all the way. However, despite Hillary's lashing out, I don't think it will require the military to remove him. At some point, even he will realize that the game's lost and a dignified exit is better than an undignified one.
All of that aside, we do need to clean up our election and ballot counting processes or this kind of nonsense will continue. Late-night surges in votes for one candidate with few, if any, for the other candidate, invite suspicion of shenanigans, even if legitimate. "Found" ballots that overwhelmingly favor one candidate invite suspicion.
And why is no one ever arrested or fired over ballots being "found" where they should not have ever been? The elections supervisor of Broward County in Florida was reappointed to her job despite two boxes of mid-term ballots being found in the trunk of a rental car at the airport in the next town over.
At the very least, states need to implement a chain-of-evidence procedure for ballot boxes. Free and fair elections are far too important to be left to the casual sloppiness with which too many states and politicians treat them.
Conan the Grammarian at November 6, 2020 6:26 AM
“The only thing going into this election that I knew with utter and complete certainty was that under no circumstances would Trump concede the election with dignity and grace.”
* * * * *
Absolutely, Artemis. Not just because he’s a sore loser but also because dignity and grace are not part of his character.
JD at November 6, 2020 6:33 AM
That Paula White clip was quite entertaining. I’d never heard of her before. She seems like a real piece of work.
JD at November 6, 2020 6:39 AM
I've heard that Twitter is subleasing their space in Scat Fran. I guess Jack saw this coming. Will London Breed beg people to stay?
https://apnews.com/article/san-francisco-approves-taxes-on-ceos-9dbf9e764220830dcfabeed96b45a63d
I R A Darth Aggie at November 6, 2020 6:50 AM
Darth, the usual Cali pattern is to tax people for leaving.
Crid at November 6, 2020 7:15 AM
Here's a good summary by an accountant of the many red flags that lead reasonable people to believe the Dems committed fraud:
https://monsterhunternation.com/2020/11/05/the-2020-election-fuckery-is-afoot/
The only sensible position now is to demand a full forensic audit. If the system in any state is so broken that it can't provide one, then that state's votes should not be counted until they fix it.
As for "dignity and grace," the vicious liars who spent years falsely accusing the president of being a Russian agent, racist, and other calumnies have used up any consideration they can expect to receive in their lifetimes.
jdgalt at November 6, 2020 8:21 AM
"At some point, even he will realize that the game's lost and a dignified exit is better than an undignified one."
Without the power of the presidency he will be abandoned by the members of the Republican party who will seek to rapidly distance themselves from him.
Pretty soon they will try and make it seem as if they never supported him at all.
I agree that it likely will not take the military to remove him from office... but his exit will almost certainly *not* be dignified.
Artemis at November 6, 2020 8:22 AM
I can't wait for the movie!
NicoleK at November 6, 2020 8:24 AM
Patrick,
Of course God's will be done. Some parts of the book are more specific to her horribly embarrassing performance.
"But I suffer not a woman to teach, nor to usurp authority over the man, but to be in silence."
I Timothy, 2:12
I don't want to sound misogynist, but men really are better at acting the fool.
Spiderfall at November 6, 2020 8:50 AM
A friend of mine says that whenever he finds the teachings of Paul at odds with the teachings of Christ, he sides with Christ.
Also, what Paul suffers and what Yah will suffer are two different things. For instance, Judges 4:4 will tell you how Yah feels about women in authority.
Patrick at November 6, 2020 9:28 AM
Conan: "All of that aside, we do need to clean up our election and ballot counting processes or this kind of nonsense will continue."
This morning, the Nevada governor, I think it was, gave all sorts of reasons why Nevada is taking so long. He did not, however, explain clearly why 40-plus states didn't have those problems. Yesterday, I heard a caller to a radio show suggest that the five remaining states are dragging their heels because, given that they're traditionally red, NONE of them wants to be the first one to give Biden even more electoral votes. (But what's taking North Carolina so long, if you see what I mean?)
On top of that, I heard (not sure of the source, right now) that the Nevada governor is truly worried about threats to the safety of the counters. So he wants to be sure that, at least, there will be no need for a recount.
Lenona at November 6, 2020 10:09 AM
She's gonna have to beg them to stay with that tax.
Companies in the tech sector are going to have higher average wages than companies in other sectors, so they'll be safe for a little while. This tax is gonna drive non-tech-sector companies out of The City; and, eventually, drive the tech ones out.
This, to be honest with you, is what The City has wanted for decades. Ever since San Francisco gave SalesForce.com a break on the city-imposed payroll tax, the Board of Supervisors has made clear its preference for new-economy industries over old-economy industries.
Chevron moved out to San Ramon in 2002. Even Wells Fargo is biding its time there.
Conan the Grammarian at November 6, 2020 10:38 AM
Patrick: "There's something thought-provoking about that. Does God need to be asked to do the right thing? Shouldn't a benevolent, all-powerful being be doing the right thing anyway?"
From Carlin:
"And here's something else, another problem you might have: Suppose your prayers aren't answered. What do you say? 'Well, it's God's will.' 'Thy Will Be Done.' Fine, but if it's God's will, and He's going to do what He wants to anyway, why the fuck bother praying in the first place? Seems like a big waste of time to me! Couldn't you just skip the praying part and go right to His Will? It's all very confusing."
Lenona at November 6, 2020 10:43 AM
Lenona,
You are seeing a difference between states that started processing mail-in ballots prior to election day and those that started processing mail-in ballots after election day.
Furthermore, ballots are counted 10 days after the election in Alaska, seven days after in Nevada, nine days in North Carolina and three days in Pennsylvania.
There isn't "dragging heels" going on here... state law defines which states get a head start and which ones wait. State law also defined when a received ballot is considered legitimate (they all much be post marked by election day).
This isn't anything new, but just as in 2000 people got an impromptu education on "hanging chads" people are now learning about the nuances of how ballot counting procedures vary by state.
Artemis at November 6, 2020 10:46 AM
“Here's a good summary by an accountant of the many red flags that lead reasonable people to believe the Dems committed fraud:”
* * * * *
Breaking news:
RANDOM INTERNET DUDE MAKES CONSPIRACY ALLEGATION!
NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF THE INTERNET!
JD at November 6, 2020 12:09 PM
This election is looking more and more sketchy all the time. Michigan apparently discovered a glitch in their system that caused one voting precinct to send 6000 votes to Democrats that were intended for Republicans. Moreover, 47 other counties use this same software.
Patrick at November 6, 2020 2:46 PM
She's INNOCENT!!
She just IS…!!!!!
…I can tell, I just can… She would never…
Crid at November 6, 2020 5:26 PM
I’ve got some lyrics for Trump to sing (written by Springsteen back in 1985.)
I'm goin' down, down, down, down
I'm goin' down, down, down, down
I'm goin' down, down, down, down
JD at November 6, 2020 6:46 PM
> I don't think it will require
> the military to remove him
Me neither, but if it does, that's okay. I don't worry about coup… He's too scatterbrained. The theme of his life is disloyalty, anyway. One by one, officials and functionaries will stop taking his calls, and that will be that. He wouldn't know how to lash together a team to take over a fast food restaurant by the middle of January, let alone the Executive branch. He's got nothing left to offer... Anyone joining the staff over the next two months will barely get a blog post out of it, let alone a book contract.
These months are dangerous internationally, given Joe's accelerating befuddlement and Kam's callow corruption. If Xi puts a move on Taiwan or something, we got bad times. (On top of 121,000 new cases yesterday.)
The most entertaining aspect of the next few weeks will be the firing of Fauci— That indignity will be as good as things get.
Let's all submit set designs for his new talk show. Do a tight budget, it'll be cancelled by April. Or try to imagine what Trump'll look like running for office in 2024… The guy's presumably been slamming down diet coke and Sudafed (and corrosive bitterness) for the last four years. Anyone wanna make odds on marriage #3 lasting through Christmas '21? (Some people thought the Obamas were going to break up, but four years later, they're still together.)
Crid at November 6, 2020 7:04 PM
I may have mentioned this before, but I heard that Melania will likely NOT divorce him. Why? Because she'd get half of what he has - almost a quarter-billion of debts.
In the meantime, a male friend of mine who used to say "Obama is nothing but a Republican" and later voted for Hillary is now saying the election is being stolen.
Given that even Lindsey Graham seems to be edging away from Trump, plus other well-known Republicans who flat-out deny that there's any proof that Biden is stealing the election, I don't know where my friend gets that from.
Lenona at November 6, 2020 8:03 PM
(Patrick — We did TNTSiJ in High School as well. I recall only the cast & crew party afterward, but given the setting, am not surprised to learn in was propaganda.)
Crid at November 6, 2020 8:39 PM
Missed and anniversary yesterday,
Crid at November 6, 2020 10:00 PM
It seems inconceivable that Trump could've married married #3 without the all-time galactic-champion pre-nup.
Crid at November 7, 2020 6:21 AM
He will - and soon enough after the inauguration. Xi won't wait long to make overt moves on Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The problem with that view is that Trump has already won a larger percentage of non-white votes than any Republican has in decades; since 1960 at last report.
Another problem for that view is that voters also don't remain static. Their situations change, as do their priorities. What was a single young voter with a progressive bent even a few years ago could be a more conservative suburban property-owning, law-and-order voter within a few years.
Voter preferences also reflect the candidate and the particular situation facing the electorate at the time; and those are not always going to be advantageous for the Democrats.
I don't think the demographic advantage for Democrats that you and other Democrats keep predicting is quite as inevitable as you think. From the link:
We'll see what happens going forward, but I don't think you can assume an automatic advantage to the Democratic Party will accrue simply with changing demographics.
I think Biden will win this election, but he won't win by the margin the Democrats wanted, nay needed. It'll be a squeaker.
Nancy Pelosi can call Biden's probable victory a "mandate" all she wants, but the predicted Blue Wave never materialized. Republicans gained seats in the House and will likely keep the Senate. That's gonna put a damper on the party's ability to implement a Progressive agenda, but not their enthusiasm to do so.
Pelosi herself may be finished. With the party's loss of strength in the House, an electorate back home in San Francisco feeling she's not progressive enough for them, and a restless left wing chomping at her restraint, she may have a difficult time being re-elected Speaker; and she may face a serious primary challenge in 2022. Her age will also be a factor (82 by then) as well.
AOC has already said she'll throw her support behind the "most progressive" candidate - i.e., not Pelosi. Now, Nancy's a veteran campaigner, so I wouldn't count her out just yet, but she's facing a political shift and growing unrest within her own party.
Pelosi being dethroned will signal a hard leftward shift in the party. And that shift may cost the Dems voters in the future. We'll see.
Conan the Grammarian at November 7, 2020 7:48 AM
Conan Says:
"The problem with that view is that Trump has already won a larger percentage of non-white votes than any Republican has in decades; since 1960 at last report.
Another problem for that view is that voters also don't remain static. Their situations change, as do their priorities. What was a single young voter with a progressive bent even a few years ago could be a more conservative suburban property-owning, law-and-order voter within a few years."
You really don't get it Conan.
Your entire social model is broken.
As I told you and others about 1.5 years ago... the 2020 election would have the highest voter turnout in history and it would be driven by voters younger than 40.
That grouping leans democrat by a margin of 60% to 40%.
You have this quaint notion that voters undergo a massive shift to become conservative voters as they age... but it isn't quite that simple as that. In fact scientists who study this kind of thing don't agree with that assessment.
Instead what happens is younger generations tend to be more progressive so the older generations simply appear more conservative by comparison.
Folks younger than you will always tend to be more progressive than you are... and will always tend to be more conservative than those younger than themselves.
As a result they aren't going to really shift much on an absolute scale, they will just be more conservative relative to the even more progressive youth coming up behind them.
There is also an element of folks becoming "locked in" based on their experiences growing up.
You came of age during the Reagan era... this predisposed you to being a conservative for the rest of your life.
The people 40 and under came of age during the Clinton years which was an economic boom... followed by the Bush years which was an economic disaster... followed by the Obama years which was an economic recovery... followed by the Trump years which was a complete shit show.
These folks aren't migrating to the Republican party.
That you continue to believe this will happen despite the evidence clearly demonstrating that your predictive power is lacking is why you will never really understand what is happening around you.
I also told you that Trump's response to Corona virus was going to doom him in his reelection bid... you claimed that was when he was starting to appear presidential and that he was basically a shoe in to win.
Your model is broken because you refuse to update it when you are clearly mistaken.
Artemis at November 7, 2020 8:25 AM
As Orion "told" us, and as he/she "also told" us.
An immigrant, right? Asian. Maybe in a wheelchair. Either an only child or raised in an institution.
Crid at November 7, 2020 9:41 AM
Also, Despite many attempts.
Dad could never say I love you?
Crid at November 7, 2020 9:51 AM
Crid,
You are a ridiculous person... this is you at 6:17 this morning:
"is there anyway to judge another human being besides 'identity'?" - Crid at November 7, 2020 6:17 AM
and this is you at 9:41:
"An immigrant, right? Asian. Maybe in a wheelchair." - Crid at November 7, 2020 9:41 AM
You're the most "woke" identity politics obsessed person I have ever interacted with... and you demand that this blog be maintained as your personal "safe space".
Artemis at November 7, 2020 9:59 AM
If just ONCE he'd been able to let down his guard and put an arm around you... But no.
Crid at November 7, 2020 10:05 AM
Artemis, I wonder if obsessive-compulsive behavior may frequently be associated with narcissism? It sure is in this particular case.
JD at November 7, 2020 10:10 AM
JD,
Narcissists are always obsessed with attacking people who don't provide them with narcissistic supply.
Crid *needs* scapegoats... as Ben has put it before, he has an "enemy list" and once you are on it you are there forever.
Do you know what it takes to get you on that list?... disagreeing with him and demonstrating that something he has stated is in error. That's it.
Narcissists cannot handle criticism of any form, their ego is too fragile. So he lashes out with irrational drivel.
Artemis at November 7, 2020 10:45 AM
Artemis, I was with a woman for two years back around 2001. She was a narcissist and the only reason I didn't bail earlier was because we had a lot of common interests, including music; we had a similar sense of humor; she was very attractive and sexy; and the sex was fantastic.
I still remember a time she went to a book club meeting for the first time with a bunch of women we both knew (through a message board like this.) One of the women who was there later told me that, when my girlfriend showed up, almost all discussion of the book ceased because she turned the conversation into a discussion about her. Needless to say, they never invited her back.
JD at November 7, 2020 12:08 PM
No, Artie. I'm not using a model, I'm speaking from experience.
Younger voters today may seem more progressive than older voters, but that can shift.
A Republican from 10 years ago would struggle to reconcile his views with Republicans today. Likewise Democrats. Your model assumes the parties will hold the same positions on the political spectrum they hold today.
Even Democrats like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were comfortable being openly opposed to gay marriage in 2000, but had changed their tunes by 2016. Democratic President, Bill Clinton, signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. In 2015, Democratic President, Barack Obama, sent his Solicitor General to argue against it in Obergefell v. Hodges.
On the other hand, Reagan's vocal opposition to California's Brigg's Initiative helped defeat the anti-gay ballot measure in 1978 at a time when his Republican advisors worried it was political suicide to be in support of gay people.
The Republican Party of today is not the same party it will be ten years hence, nor is it the same party it was ten years ago. The Democrat Party, too, has changed, and will change.
Whatever party represents the status quo (the more conservative side of the political spectrum) in tomorrow's elections will attract voters with a stake in that status quo. And those voters will include some who formerly voted for the other party.
Younger voters reaching voting age today may lean more progressive when compared to their elders, but that was not always the case.
You may be too young to remember, but in the early '80s, young voters under 30 went for Reagan by a pretty solid majority. Older voters preferred Carter to Reagan.
I mentioned Jimmy Carter in another thread. he was very popular with the recently enfranchised young voters in 1976, but lost them by 1980 when they went for Reagan in a big way.
In the intervening four years, the cultural zeitgeist had changed away from hippies to yuppies, so Carter's blue jeans and "aw shucks" appeal was no longer a draw for younger voters. Today's young voters recall Carter as a much better president than he actually was, based mostly on his well-publicized charity work.
A failed or widely-maligned presidency will always bleed voters of any age for the candidate behind that presidency. Carter, despite his appeal to young voters in 1976, failed to hold that appeal in 1980, a dramatic shift in only 4 years. Young voters continue to support Republican presidential candidates in 1984 and 1988; switching to the Democratic ticket in 1992 when young voters went for Bill Clinton over the candidate younger voters had preferred in 1988.
The one constant in this world is change. Voters will change, political parties will evolve, and intangibles will always be a factor in an election. Tomorrow's parties, candidates, and platforms will not be today's parties, candidates, and platforms. Tomorrow's voters will not be today's voters. The demographic changes today do not portend a permanent Democrat majority tomorrow, no matter how badly you want them to.
In the next couple of elections, Artie, your model will likely hold. After that, however, anything's possible. It's happened before.
Conan the Grammarian at November 7, 2020 1:20 PM
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