The Bullet Train Is A Bullshit Train
California voters are like a few repeat "customers" who write to me for advice, never, ever, ever learning from the broken promises they got the last time around.
The difference is that California voters are cozying up pols and their promises and not guys off Tinder.
The problem is that it costs the rest of us in the state, like those of us slated to pay for the "high speed" (hah -- that's funny!) train, or as I like to call it, the "traindoggle."
As for why, this letter to the editor in the LA Times illustrates it pretty well:
To the editor: Why isn't the California High Speed Rail Authority in court for blatantly defying the express will of the voters?In 2008, the voters approved a ballot measure authorizing the expenditure of about $10 billion toward the total $33-billion cost of the initial segment connecting Los Angeles to San Francisco in a specified travel time. Now the authority wishfully thinks it can build a slower train connecting part of the Bay Area to Southern California for three times what voters were originally told it would take.
The train will not go where promised; it will go slower than promised; it won't be ready for 13 years after its originally promised completion date; and its cost projection is triple the original estimate.
There is a business principle of "sunk costs" that's similar to the old saying that when you discover you're digging your hole deeper, stop digging. Cancel this project and stop pouring millions of dollars per day down the bottomless pit.
Richard Morse, Redondo Beach
I'm guessing (though we're fun to make fun of, with all the sunshine and boobs here and all), that California is not unique in voter gullibility.
I also think a substantial corrective for it is libertarian leanings -- and the lack of naivete about government that comes with.








It's hard to overcome the free shit army, especially if they're in the legislature. Barack promised them lots of money, and they and the voters bit.
Florida was offered similar money. The legislature drooled, the governor said no. So, instead we have this:
http://www.govtech.com/fs/infrastructure/Floridas-Latest-Railroad-Is-a-Mostly-Private-Gamble.html
I wish them luck. But I suspect they'll eventually have to come hat-in-hand for subsidies from someone. Even densely populated Europe and Japan trains are subsidized.
I R A Darth Aggie at August 29, 2018 6:21 AM
"The free shit army" is well put. Ugh.
And I suspect you're exactly right about the subsidies they'll come calling for.
Amy Alkon at August 29, 2018 6:27 AM
My first thoughts, hey they are better than NASA! Isn't NASA averaging 100x predicted costs these days and decades behind schedule.
second thoughts, if those are your priorities then you need to get out and vote them. Clearly not many in California share your priorities and that doesn't look like it is going to change any time soon.
Ben at August 29, 2018 6:30 AM
On the other hand, if the subsidies are less than the cost of building and maintaining new roads, bridges, and related infrastructure, that may not be a horrible trade off.
I R A Darth Aggie at August 29, 2018 6:55 AM
Well, it's become obvious (if it wasn't already) that the only real purpose of the train program is to enrich cronies. California's government is exploiting the quasi-religion of environmentalism, and they're laughing all the way to the bank.
Cousin Dave at August 29, 2018 6:56 AM
You had me at boobs.
I live in Europe. Trains work here because the population density is about nine times that of the US, and probably 90 times that of the western US.
High Speed Rail will be a giant smoking money pit. You'd think the morons responsible for this thing would realize they are using a 19th century tool as if it is somehow better than 21st century solutions.
Oh, wait. Never mind. They are morons.
Jeff Guinn at August 29, 2018 8:26 AM
Railroads have rarely made money on passenger rail.
That's why the government had to take it over US passenger rail and consolidate it into Amtrak, which loses money on every route, even on the heavily-ridden Northeastern Corridor.
The iconic Old West passenger train existed because the government forced the railroads to add passenger service. The railroads made very little on it and dumped passenger service as soon as they could.
Henry Flagler might have made money on his Florida line, but I suspect any actual profit was made on the hotels he owned along the line instead of the line itself. And land speculation with his railroad bringing in potential buyers.
European and Asian passenger rail is highly subsidized by the state. Lacking the impact of Henry Ford and his ubiquitous Model T, railroads remained the chief way for people to get from town to town there vs. the US where the automobile was coming into prominence. Ford's cheap and easily-produced "Tin Lizzie" modernized US society and the US economy.
The French would later seek to emulate Ford's success in modernizing his country with the 2CV, the West Germans with the Volkswagen, and the East Germans with the Trabant, but those efforts were post-war efforts and had to surmount obstacles imposed by the effects of World War II on the combatant countries; the Trabant also had to contend with rigid state control of manufacturing and design.
Today's environmentalists see the modernization wrought by Ford's Tin Lizzie as an unmitigated disaster, but without it, the US would be a much more pastoral nation and probably not the economic and military powerhouse in which they live in comfort.
A former German general interviewed for a book on the Red Ball Express stated that the genius of the US Army in World War II was not in having better equipment or better soldiers, he held the Germans superior in both those regards, but in the ability to get arms and supplies to the point at which they were needed quickly.
Driving a truck, he told the interviewer, was a specialized skill in the Wehrmacht, but a general skill in the US Army; allowing the Americans to set up and maintain an ad hoc supply line hundreds of miles long and growing longer by the day as Allied armies drove the Germans back.
Conan the Grammarian at August 29, 2018 8:52 AM
Monorail!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDOI0cq6GZM
"We're twice as smart as the people of Shelbyville, just tell us your idea and we'll vote for it!"
bkmale at August 29, 2018 9:31 AM
People who vote for this crap never actually expect to pay for it.
Consider that stuff like high-speed rail and commuter trains are super sexy to recent college grads and techies/marketing people/startup-culture folks. Also consider that these young people are almost transient. They live in LA or San Jose for a couple years with a few roommates. But CA's so shallow, dude, so next it's Austin. But, hey, it's hot here, and your college roommate just moved to Boulder, so that will be the next stop... So why not vote for whatever sounds cool and progressive? It's gonna solve all of our traffic problems, right? And when your expenses consist of rent and utilities split three ways in the gentrified part of town, plus your bar tab, life is pretty good. And what does it matter if people in Los Angeles or Austin or Nashville have to pay for it, you won't be there anyway. Plus, you're going to be young and have a pocket full of money forever, right?
ahw at August 29, 2018 10:02 AM
The very people who are pushing trains will never themselves take one--too low class for them. There is so much data showing how expensive a boondoggle trains are, and yet this is ignored. ugh
cc at August 29, 2018 1:23 PM
James Bovard came up with a good description- the battered voter syndrome. We, the voters, believe the promises of our politicians to do better this time, like battered wives who won't leave their husbands.
I usually find Bovard's books to be interesting, but depressing.
Nicholas (Unlicensed Joker) Gray at August 29, 2018 5:43 PM
I've heard good things about the Dallas light rail. And the Houston train has good ridership, or so I've heard. And best of all the Houston train is free . . . because all the ticket machines are broken.
Ben at August 30, 2018 6:06 AM
Rail is an incredibly efficient way to move bulk freight. Passengers, not so much.
When people change travel patterns, buses or planes can be easily rerouted and reallocated, because they're not on rails.
bw1 at August 30, 2018 7:23 PM
To that extent Bw1 personal automobiles are the best.
Ben at September 1, 2018 11:48 AM
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