A hard swing towards conservatism. Kids will start getting married in their early 20s again and the trend towards more SAHMs will continue.

I predict the opposite NicoleK. 70% of Americans will be born to a single mother. Their parent will never marry and the 'dad' will be replaced every 5-10 years. Due to a need for at least a single stable income kids will be raised from near birth in preschool and then public schools. This will cause a severe break culturally with their parents. After all their parents aren't who raised them. They will get their values and opinions from public school teachers instead. The drive towards zero public affiliations (really stealth affiliations) will continue.

One of the harder to predict ones is when will the US default. I'm guessing around 50 years from now. The unsustainable spending on welfare for the elderly will cause ever increasing debt. Eventually the US won't be able to borrow to match it's spending. At which point it will go into default and refuse to pay the people it owes money to, preferring to keep welfare payments going. That will lead to recession as the US economy collapses and possibly world war 3.

It would be nice if the last one was avoided but so far the elderly show no willingness for welfare reform. SS and medicare are not sustainable. They are the major issue with balancing the budget. Still, any politician who talks about any sort of cut to those programs loses their job. The message voters sent has been heard loud and clearly. The only acceptable reform will be after entitlement programs bankrupt the government.

"or many, feeling like they're part of some movement, even if it's ultimately a movement of assholes, gives them something to hang onto, to be a part of, to feel sure about."

Sebastian Haffner, who grew up in Germany between the wars, observed a similar phenomenon. When the economic and political climate briefly stabilized--during the Stresemann era...

"The last ten years were forgotten like a bad dream. The Day of Judgment was remote again, and there was no demand for saviors or revolutionaries…There was an ample measure of freedom, peace, and order, everywhere the most well-meaning liberal-mindedness, good wages, good food and a little political boredom. everyone was cordially invited to concentrate on their personal lives, to arrange their affairs according to their own taste and to find their own paths to happiness."

But not *everyone* was happy about the stabilization:

:A generation of young Germans had become accustomed to having the entire content of their lives delivered gratis, so to speak, by the public sphere, all the raw material for their deeper emotions…Now that these deliveries suddently ceased, people were left helpless, impoverished, robbed, and disappointed. They had never learned how to live from within themselves, how to make an ordinary private life great, beautiful and worth while, how to enjoy it and make it interesting. So they regarded the end of political tension and the return of private liberty not as a gift, but as a deprivation. They were bored, their minds strayed to silly thoughts, and they began to sulk."

and

"It was not the entire generation of young Germans. Not every single individual reacted in this fashion. There were some who learned during this period, belatedly and a little clumsily, as it were, how to live. they began to enjoy their own lives, weaned themselves from the cheap intoxication of the sports of war and revolution, and started to develop their own personalities. It was at this time that, invisibly and unnoticed, the Germans divided into those who later became Nazis and those who would remain non-Nazis."

> A hard swing towards
> conservatism.

Man, you're optimistic.

But on the Fifth Column a couple days back, Moynihan said something deeply counter-intuitive and kinda obvious at the same time— Black people are conservative in a lot of ways (homosexuality, personal finance, etc.)

The black American family has been ruthlessly shattered by big-government liberals… And yet.

David Foster, that was interesting stuff from Haffner. Thanks. I've read a couple of books about Weimar Germany and they seem to agree with that observation, though without putting it that way.

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For many, feeling like they're part of some movement, even if it's ultimately a movement of assholes, gives them something to hang onto, to be a part of, to feel sure about.

I was listening to right-wing talk radio yesterday, for the first time in years, and a caller brought up an interesting point. He said that past generations have been tested by some generational challenge to overcome. He cited World War II, the Depression, Civil Rights, and the Cold War as examples.

He then went on to point out that Millennials and Gen-Z have grown up in the most secure and comfortable environment we could create. They have had no big generational challenge. As a result, they're trying to create one in climate change, the 2008 melt-down, student loans, racism, #MeToo, etc.

I don't know that I agree entirely with that caller, but he did make an interesting point - both directly about Millennials and Gen-Z having not had a generational challenge and indirectly about how important such a challenge is to the collective self esteem of a generation.

> 70% of

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That's unconscious, right? It's from the Old Country.

> the cheap intoxication of the
> sports of war and revolution

That's an interesting phrase.

> As a result, they're trying
> to create one

It's always seemed that way, that they're drama queens. DQ's demand not only that they themselves be admired, but that the admiration come to them conveniently. They don't want to reach into the smelly, unpleasant world to shake the unwashed hands of the masses for whom they feign concern.

DQ:

Trust me. I have inherent sensitivities, qualities of warmth and insight glowing within me even though I've never courageously investigated the world or made anything happen without enormous support from my surrounding community.

The Rest of Us:

Yeah. Right.

From The Matrix

Agent Smith: Did you know that the first Matrix was designed to be a perfect human world? Where none suffered, where everyone would be happy. It was a disaster. No one would accept the program. Entire crops were lost. Some believed we lacked the programming language to describe your perfect world. But I believe that, as a species, human beings define their reality through suffering and misery. The perfect world was a dream that your primitive cerebrum kept trying to wake up from. Which is why the Matrix was redesigned to this: the peak of your civilization.

Just your senility acting up Crid.

Conan, I see it more of an issue with who has the microphone. As Haffner said it wasn't everyone. But the ones who became the Nazis were the ones in power. They weren't even the majority. But that didn't matter. Tyrannies of minorities are actually more common than tyrannies of majorities. Millenials have been strongly trained not to speak out against left wing causes. The voices 'representing' that group are actually fringe elements with little real support. But if most people are unwilling to oppose them out of fear and training it doesn't matter that they are a small fringe group. They will still rule unopposed.

I can agree with Moynihan about that brand of conservatism becoming more dominant. Millenials were huge supporters for gay rights.
Key word being were. That support is falling pretty fast. As for marriage making a comeback, not a chance. At least not for quite some time.

As for marriage making a comeback, not a chance. At least not for quite some time.

Marriage as currently constituted in the USofA is a bad deal for men. It's not likely to get better any time soon. I think this generation will have to pass away for meaningful reform is brought to the system.

I would advise young men to avoid that institution. We'll have to see how it works out for the gays.

"He then went on to point out that Millennials and Gen-Z have grown up in the most secure and comfortable environment we could create. They have had no big generational challenge."

Partly true, but....many of them had the challenges of broken-up families. Many of them incurred huge debts for services being sold to naive buyers/borrowers by sleazy university administrators, who never could have gotten away with such low ethical standards in any other industry. They faced an economy which was, until very recently, pretty stagnant.

Conan, I see it more of an issue with who has the microphone. ~ Ben at September 6, 2019 8:04 AM

Well, Ben, Haffner over-simplifies things a bit with "...the Germans divided into those who later became Nazis and those who would remain non-Nazis."

Some of those disaffected youth with who failed to build an internal life gravitated to the Communist party and later clashed in the streets with their fellow-traveling collectivists in the National Socialist German Workers' Party (Nazis).

The National Socialists and the Communists were the two major socio-political movements in Weimar Germany. Both were hostile to the capitalist economic system and democratic political system extant in Germany then.

Seeking meaning to their now-humdrum lives, few of Germany's disaffected youth gravitated to the other political parties - those were parties more than movements and did not offer structure and a cause to nomad souls seeking to something to define them and give their lives meaning (think joining Antifa or BLM vs. registering Democrat).

Since the Nazis won out in the end, lumping all of the non-Nazis together is a forgivable simplification on Haffner's part.

Partly true, but....many of them had the challenges of broken-up families. Many of them incurred huge debts.... They faced an economy which was, until very recently, pretty stagnant. ~ David Foster at September 6, 2019 8:39 AM

Other generations in US history have had to deal with broken families, debt, a stagnant economy, and widespread fraud.

What you're describing are personal challenges, not really generation-defining ones. No one is going to write a history book about Frank Smith's student loan debt. Nor is Frank going to occupy a foxhole in a foreign country alongside fellow draftees in a firefight with the evil debt collectors. Nor is Dorothea Lange going to show up and take a photograph of Frank struggling to pay his debts.

...who never could have gotten away with such low ethical standards in any other industry. ~ David Foster at September 6, 2019 8:39 AM

Not true. Other industries have been rife with fraudsters preying on a gullible marks as well. Try land speculation fraud (goes all the way back the 1700s with the Yazoo scandal). Want something more recent? Try derivatives. Try credit card companies in the '80s preying on college students. Try the dot-com bubble. Try mortgage fraud and the housing bubble. Try virtual currencies.

I accept that Haffner over simplified things. But the issue with millenial self silencing is very real. We had a post on here a few days ago talking about how stores would put pro-left wing signs in their windows purely as an attempt to avoid being vandalized. The entire millenial generation does that. Less so now than when they were younger. But still to a very large amount. Take that ass David Hogg for an example. He was loud, rude, and got national attention representing his generation. And he was complete astroturf. He represented nothing. And then you had Kyle Kashuv, who lost his seat at Harvard because he publicly opposed left wing views. Kashuv's experience isn't unique. It is actually quite normal. And that is how a small group takes control. If only the Hoggs of the US get to talk and anyone who opposes them gets punished (kicked out of school, business smashed, lose their jobs) then the Hoggs will rule. Most nations are run by a small militant group.

"Marriage as currently constituted in the USofA is a bad deal for men." ~IRA

Agreed. Until the laws of marriage change it isn't making a comeback. People will just cohabitate. No reason to waste the money on lawyers. You will still have 20% or so who still get married. They are the rich and they have other ways of balancing the scales.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
Demagogues are replacing thoughtful politicians and journalists. Medicare for all will solve every medical problem. Better teachers and charter schools will solve every education problem. Tariffs will bring manufacturing back. Renewable energy will solve the climate change and provide cheap energy.

We will swing back and forth between populist rightists and populist leftists. Every 4 or 8 years we will have someone new elected who will press the magic buttons to solve every problem. Politicians who actually tries to think will lose their primary to a true believer. Fortunately, our system of checks and balances will keep the elected morons from doing too much damage.

Everyone will think the sky is falling when the other meanie gets elected. Meanwhile, the world will continue to get better because people are smart and it is hard for government to destroy progress. We will get richer, better educated, healthier with a better environment. But we will all moan about how much better it was in the old days.

Conan...."Some of those disaffected youth with who failed to build an internal life gravitated to the Communist party and later clashed in the streets with their fellow-traveling collectivists in the National Socialist German Workers' Party (Nazis)."

True. But quite a few of those who initially gravitated to Communism later became Nazis. Haffner observes this phenomenon in the book, and comments on certain unpleasant personality traits common to believes of both types.

Patrick Leigh Fermor, who traveled in Germany circa 1933. Once he stayed in a spare bedroom offered by a friendly guy he had met. It turned out that there was Nazi regalia everywhere, and an SA uniform hanging neatly ironed. “When I said that it must be rather claustrophobic with all that stuff on the walls, he laughed and sat down on his bed and said: “Mensch! You should have seen it last year! You would have laughed! Then it was all red flags, stars, hammers and sickles, pictures or Lenin and Stalin and Workers of the World, Unite!” He went on to say that he and his friends “We used to beat hell out of the Nazis, and they beat the hell out of us…Then suddenly, when Hitler came into power, I understood it was all nonsense and lies. I realized Adolf was the man for me!” His old friends had all changed sides as well; the only problem he saw was that there were hardly and socialists or communists left to beat up.

Conan..."Other industries have been rife with fraudsters preying on a gullible marks as well."

True. But this particular industry was vocally supported by parents, media, politicians, virtually all voices in the society. And the targets were 17- and 18-year olds.

A 10-K for an existing corporation or an S-1 for an IPO always includes a Disclosure of Risks, which it is required to do. For most people, a college education...with or without student loans...is one of the largest "investments" they will ever make, and there have been no disclosures or risk or suitability.

Youthful disinterest in patriotism, babies, and God might be a mere proxy for young people's distaste for traditional conservatism.

And what of my adult disinterest in the same?

I still think a large number (20 million is the number I've been using) of them are going to wind up having to be institutionalized. Because they just can't function in the adult world.

For most people, a college education...with or without student loans...is one of the largest "investments" they will ever make, and there have been no disclosures or risk or suitability. ~ David Foster at September 6, 2019 9:34 AM

You mean other than common sense.

I got my undergraduate degree in 1987 and my parents, aunts, and uncles, all advised me in high school to choose a college major in something that would result in a job - i.e., to forego my chosen field of history and major in business instead; especially since the economy was entering a slowdown.

Now, you're telling me that sometime in the late '80s, people simply forgot what they knew before that and started believing that any degree was sufficient for gainful employment and the degree of difficulty or imparted level of technical proficiency didn't matter. Don't pee on my leg and tell me it's raining.

Even then, anybody with a lick of common sense could have looked around and figured out that an engineering degree would lead to a better job than a puppetry degree. The newspaper were full of articles that showed higher starting salaries for technical degrees than for liberal arts degrees.

And, as far as student loans are concerned, the disclosure statement contains an estimate of the total amount to be repaid. Mine did. So, piling loans on top of loans to get a worthless degree was just silly on the part of the serial loan applicant.

Self-delusion is no defense.

Kinda like people suing tobacco companies and claiming they didn't know cigarettes were linked to cancer - despite soldiers calling them "coffin nails" as early as World War I (1914 - 1918), long before the government required a warning label.

Yet somehow, nobody knew cigarettes were unhealthy. Smokers want us to believe that they thought waking up every morning and coughing up a lung was a sign of good respiratory health. [See the pee on my leg comment above]

==================================================

...and comments on certain unpleasant personality traits common to believes of both types. ~ David Foster at September 6, 2019 9:39 AM

True. Both are collectivist philosophies that put the welfare of the group over that of the individual.

Both are attractive to the kind of people who think they'll be in a position to control the lives of others come the revolution; the types who care more about the control than about the philosophy through which they get it.

Conan...

To quote Haffner again, concerning two acquaintances, one Nazi and one Communist:

“They both came from the ‘youth movement’ and both thought in terms of leagues. They were both anti-bourgeois and anti-individualistic. Both had an ideal of ‘community’ and ‘community spirit’. For both, jazz music, fashion magazines…in other words the world of glamour and ‘easy come, easy go’, were a red rag. Both had a secret liking for terror, in a more humanistic garb for the one, more nationalistic for the other. As similar views make for similar faces, they both had a certain stiff, thin-lipped, humourless expression and, incidentally, the greatest respect for each other.”

"I still think a large number (20 million is the number I've been using) of them are going to wind up having to be institutionalized. Because they just can't function in the adult world." - Cousin Dave.

I think they want to transform the whole country into their asylum.

> Just your…

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I hope Ben is right about default taking 50 years to happen. Pretty sure I'm not gonna live to 120.

Conan Says:

"Kinda like people suing tobacco companies and claiming they didn't know cigarettes were linked to cancer - despite soldiers calling them "coffin nails" as early as World War I (1914 - 1918), long before the government required a warning label."

This is a terrible example to try and make your point.

The reason they were successfully sued was precisely because they vociferously campaigned against the "common sense" that cigarettes were linked to cancer. They set up entire propaganda campaigns against the scientific reality of that link.

We cannot abide a society that makes everything "buyer beware" despite false advertising and lies propagated for financial gain.

When you do that all you do is create a society of con artists and thieves.

The dirty little secret about government debt Rex is that while the US is not doing that great most of the industrialized world is doing far far worse. They need US dollars to make trade work between their nations because their money is even less stable than ours. This creates a huge demand for US dollars around the world. That keeps the effective inflation rate low in the US and permits the US government debt to keep growing.

When will this stop working, I haven't a clue. Could be five years from now or fifty. But when the US loses reserve currency status it will probably go into default that same year.