Consider—

Mayor Bill de Blasio
Twitter Via Google Cache, original has been deleted

Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film.

5:16 PM - 2 Mar 2020 (24 days ago)

Chancellor Richard Carranza
Via New York Post

City schools will remain open indefinitely despite mounting coronavirus fears, Chancellor Richard Carranza told a parent group Thursday. […]

A participant at the meeting of the Chancellor’s Parent Advisory Committee asked Carranza about a petition with about 108,000 signatures demanding a systemwide shutdown.

The schools chief said the DOE would maintain the status quo “until 108,000 epidemiologists” make the same demand.

March 12, 2020 | 9:08pm (14 day ago)

Obviously, no civilized person suggests raising/aggravating the death rate for any reason, aside from economic nutters like Dan Patrick. (Didn't he also condemn "death panels," not long ago? Not to mention, does he really think "only" the elderly die from the virus?)

But one thing I'm morbidly curious about is what the Italian economy will look like, maybe 2 years from now, when it will presumably have had time to rebuild itself in general.

That is, even if their low birth rate increases very little or not at all, will that really be much of a problem, with fewer elderly people to support - and youngish immigrants? Will pronatalists start losing power?

"What are the Germans doing right?"

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&channel=ipad_bm&source=hp&ei=Zkd8Xt6KKoOJggfRnLCwDQ&q=germany+coronavirus&oq=&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.1.3.41l3j41i131l2j41l3.0.0..4738...0.0..0.0.0.......0...........8.mcqsoetxO8w

> what the Italian economy
> will look like

Some will say that's been foretold.

> "What are the Germans
> doing right?"

W.A. guesses from the epidemiological perspective that comes from a life spent editing cheesy tv shows—

• Germans are being younger

• Germany's young, more likely to be carriers, are less likely to be living with their elders, who are more likely to get sick noticeably and severely.

• Perhaps less air passenger traffic from China, per the link above.

Oopsie doodle, the link— metrics.

In addition to Crid's points on Germany, Germans are a lot richer than the Italians and their government is a lot less corrupt. While there are issues with the German government and there is citizen concern with trusting it comparing that with the Italian government is almost impossible. The Italian government is corrupt and everyone knows it. So when it started implementing quarantine Italians stopped going to work and instead hung out in bars, completely defeating the purpose. No one really trusted it when it said there was a problem.

Our expanding sun will eventually swallow the earth whole. And if not, it'll get warm. Very warm. In about 5 or so billion years hence.

https://futurism.com/heres-what-it-will-look-like-when-the-sun-becomes-a-red-giant-earth-burns-video

Need New Yorkers exclude prosecution from their daydreams?

If they want to be civil about it, yes. There are other means at their disposal. Which are less civil.

They could just seize de Blasio's wealth, divvy it up and call it a day.

I guess I need to be watching TED talks non-stop.

https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-03-26

From Crid's "foretold" link

If one positive thing can come of the Wuhan corona-virus, maybe it will be that the world will finally open its eyes to just how sinister China has been over the past few decades, slithering in to our households, seemingly unbeknownst to us, and co-opting even our most basic necessities. Time will tell, but one thing is clear- it appears that “Why Italy?” is more nefarious than anyone could have initially thought.

https://uncoverdc.com/2020/03/20/why-italy/

As Vir Cotto expressed in Babylon 5, some deals come at too high a price.

You were warned, lefties, that #BelieveAllWomen was dangerous. Now it looks like Quid Pro #HimToo Joe is about to be bitten...*checks notes* given a 24/7 white wash along with accusations that the woman in question is a "Russian asset".

https://twitter.com/kthalps/status/1242691746561167360

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/24/joe-biden-metoo-times-up/

More Cringe Pro Joe.

biden appears to be confused about his past

he claims he became a professor when he left the us senate

he didn't; he became vice president

he also never actually taught a class

the campaign needs to stop him from doing interviews bc they aren't going well for him at all

https://twitter.com/helloitsthao/status/1242874597227331585

What's behind a name?

https://twitter.com/sageboggs/status/1242968530250870786

The Italian government is corrupt and everyone knows it. So when it started implementing quarantine Italians stopped going to work and instead hung out in bars, completely defeating the purpose. No one really trusted it when it said there was a problem.

This also sums up Latin American nations in a nutshell. In part because the high poverty rates means a very sizable amount of the population survive on what they earn each day.

And also because everyone knows that the governments rely on foreign donations that they steal and keep it for themselves.

Wanna think about another COVID-19 effect? How about elections? In this way...

Love in the time of Corona.

https://imgur.com/a/9xtrfJz#XtK2TcU

How about elections?

I fully expect to receive 27 mail in ballots come August (primary) and November.

> Love in the time

Who amongst us hasn't stopped traffic in midtown at one point or another?


Additionally, it turn out that those elegant straw-colored latex gloves that all the kids are wearing nowadays CAN survive a complete laundry cycle: Full-load agitation vigor in warm water with commercial detergent, and a 40-minute dryer ride with Permanent Press heat. They come out looking fine! So if you happen to leave a *fresh* set in your pants pocket, they'll be sitting on top of the load when it's all over.

(Note: THEY WILL NOT BE DISINFECTED. They are not designed for reuse.)

> If they want to be
> civil about it

As Lenona and I were discussing in a recent thread, civility is an important and under-selected hue in a *rainbow* of choices.

Those fuckers almost certainly got people killed while smirkingly affirming their leadership: They endangered the public who were paying them to know better. No excuses — Hard time.

No excuses — Hard time.

I was thinking "guillotine" (the device, not the inventor). But I'm a sucker for tradition, and the kids have different notions. They should be given a listen, 'cause they may invent the next great tradition.

Keep repeating this, it needs to be remembered.

We confront hard fact history: Beijing's communists decided to let Chinese citizens die rather than confront the epidemic.

https://strategypage.com/on_point/20200324224015.aspx

Xi's Disease will necessitate a long, messy clean up on multiple fronts.

As often happens during emergencies, governors and mayors across the country have used executive power to waive laws and bypass regulations. This allows goods to get to the public quicker at lower cost, more service providers to enter struggling industries, and the market to respond to the crisis in countless other ways.

Lifting these regulations does not put public health or safety in jeopardy; if that were the case, they wouldn’t be lifted with such ease. But this should lead the public to question why the regulatory burdens exist at all.

https://fee.org/articles/a-litany-of-useless-laws-have-been-exposed-by-the-coronavirus/

People are dying in waiting rooms before they can even be admitted as the coronavirus pandemic overpowers medical staff. With some funeral services halted in the Spanish capital and no space left in the morgues, corpses are being stored at the main ice rink.

One wonders what it ̶w̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ WILL take for Mom of 4 and Ben to recant their use of the word "hysterical."



That's the beauty of this: As humdrum infections blossom, you can't pretend that panic is the source of the problem. People couldn't see the virus on their fingertips, so they trusted the authorities who told them to go to movies and to school and ignore the thing. Two weeks later, it all turns to shit… As anyone who's read a high-school biology textbook would have foreseen.

"It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

— President Trump, Two Weeks Ago

> Xi's Disease will necessitate…

Excellent. Excellent.

• C'mere, gorgeous!

• Here's a handy metric we can all use in our daily lives.

Dang Crid, you live in Spain?

Well, back to your regularly scheduled hysteria with a coffee filter taped to your face.

USA 12:27 3/16/20—

Coronavirus Cases: 79,082
Deaths:1,143

All that suffering (even in your own family), and all that economic destruction, means less to you than wiggling your dick in public on behalf the Orange Oracle.

Well, we'll try out some new numbers in the weeks ahead! Do your homework with potential wealth in a centralized clearinghouse!

Barcelona, Madrid, NYC, & Paris are all on track to be worse than Milan or Wuhan.

"Dang."

Over 3 million people have lost their jobs. Tens of thousands are losing their homes. None of that matters to Crid. They could all die from hunger for all Crid cares. Just so long as they don't die from corona.

Doesn't make sense, does it.

Elections in November!

You all are an optimistic bunch.

Today I learned that the Swiss government is looking at our cell phone data to track the difference in our movement since the restrictions were implemented.

On the one hand, cool that they can do that and see if it worked.

On the other hand HOLY CREEPY HELL.

The conspiracy theory in me wonders if this is all a test to see how compliant we are.

Or failing that, now that the opportunity has shown that we are content to give up our civil liberties... will they be given back

I dunno. I'm getting paranoid. It must be the isolation. Or just the general feeling that I am living in a novel.

BennyBunBun, that isn't even coherent. See "economic destruction," above.

Here are half a million more funny jokes about Spain.

N.— You are not paranoid, but keep paying attention.

Crid is likely aware of this news, but the Indy 500 has been moved to 23 August 2020.

https://covid19.ims.com/

Today I learned that the Swiss government is looking at our cell phone data to track the difference in our movement since the restrictions were implemented.

So leave your cell phone at home when you want to go and do something naughty. Not that you ever do anything naughty. Perish the thought.

Oh, hai! Swiss DDPS!

> the Indy 500 has been moved

That's a start, but let's be blunt… Without Monaco (most always scheduled the same day as the 500) 2020 may as well have never happened…

Which is how most of us are going feel about this year anyway.

The drug, delivered as an aerosol known as PUL-042, was created by biopharmaceutical company Pulmotect, MD Anderson Cancer Center and Texas A&M, which have worked together to develop the drug for more than a decade. PUL-042 has been tested on mice and had limited human trials in the United Kingdom, and at that point would usually be at least a year away from approval by the Food and Drug Administration.

Pulmotect plans to launch clinical trials testing the safety and effectiveness of the drug in humans next week at Houston Methodist, the company said. If successful, it could request expedited approval in the next six months.

But if approved, it could provide short-term immunization for doctors, nurses and people in close proximity to COVID-19 patients until a proper vaccine is developed.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Houston-researchers-test-lung-inhalant-that-could-15151348.php

> leave your cell phone at home

I've been wondering that for a few years now… How could any married person have an illicit affair nowadays? All that data, ALL OF IT, including the room number at the Shadyside Inn, sits on a server somewhere or other. Considering the profligacy with which GoogleFacebookMicrosoftTwitter et al market this data to others, how could you not think that information will be made available to your spouse with a simple lookup page in the years or months ahead?

Watson and other AIs are on Xi's disease.

Viruses infect host cells by injecting them with a "spike" of genetic material. Summit's job is to find drug compounds that could bind to that spike and potentially stop the spread.

Oak Ridge researcher Micholas Smith created a model of the coronavirus spike based on research published in January. With Summit, he simulated how the atoms and particles in the viral protein would react to different compounds.

The supercomputer ran simulations of over 8,000 compounds that could bind to the spike protein of the virus, which could limit its ability to spread to host cells. Summit identified 77 of them and ranked them based on how likely they were to bind to the spike.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coronavirus-scn-trnd/index.html

But I do feel sorry for the Man, who per your link, will be investing in the quickly-fading beauty even as she naps. I hope he doesn't regret it.

Remember this from March 26, 2020 1:08 AM, above?

Perhaps (Germany had) less air passenger
traffic from China… I don't know.

Well.

Dang:

The trajectory of the U.S. #COVID19 epidemic just couldn't be worse, especially compared to other nations. We've outpaced China and we're racing to hell at a clip well beyond Italy or Spain.

Ah, the joys of working at a company that gives zero f*cks about accountability:

https://twitter.com/mffisher/status/1242957612204916739

Upside down world:

Mexicans demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1243220554066415616

Six, I like that second reply—

"Anyone know Marc's folks?"

• Chinese perfidy with PPE.

• Corporate perfidy with your data.

• Here's a little atrocious weirdness just for Nicolek (I think, I can't remember where she lives exactly.)

• Here's a sweet video.

• Yesterday's sweet video.

• A video on extinguishing a kitchen pan fire.

Those fuckers almost certainly got people killed while smirkingly affirming their leadership: They endangered the public who were paying them to know better. No excuses — Hard time.

Would it be too much to ask that they be hanged in Times Square?

Corona Virus Daily Thread #28

Well, back to your regularly scheduled hysteria with a coffee filter taped to your face.

Go ahead, Ben. Get out there and party on. Just remember to hug Grandma for me afterward.

Oompa Loompa Doopity-doo
Wuhanic Plague is comin' for you!

They seem nice.

Chinese company shipped out millions of Australia’s masks, hand sanitiser, glove supplies

Crid, it's because the virus came to Switzerland through Italy, and a bit through France. Ticino has the most contact with Italy. The French cantons also have a lot of contact with Italy though not quite as much, and a lot of contact with France. The cantons with commuters from France and Italy are more affected.

A lot of people work in Switzerland because salaries are higher, but live in the surrounding countries because rents and cost of living are cheaper. France and Italy are a week or two ahead of us, so the virus came with the commuters.

The German cantons have mostly commuters from Germany and northern France which isn't as affected yet.

Also there was February break and a lot of Italians who live in Switzerland went home for the break.

I'm in Vaud. We are hit pretty bad. I don't know anyone who definitely had it though apparently there's a guy who lives a couple blocks from me.

Be well! Wash your hands, make the kids wash their hands.

Alarmist? Crid, that was last week. It is just plain facts. A very predictable event. But now it is history.

Here is the truth Crid, you don't care about anyone who has died from Corona. You only care to use their deaths to stroke your own ego. A vile action.

Here is what we know now about COVID-19. It is communicable enough that it will not burn itself out like ebola will. Everyone will get the disease eventually. The only question is when. Most people will not have life threatening complications. Only about 2% of cases are severe and require hospital intervention. Without treatment around 0.2% will be fatal but much less with treatment. How much less, who knows. We also know that severity of the disease is heavily weighted towards the elderly and those with other health complications.

Shutting down most cities isn't a solution. It doesn't solve anything. The disease isn't stopped. No lives have been saved.

Instead most people should return to work. They will get sick. There is nothing that can stop that so they may as well get it over with. The elderly and those with special medical needs should self quarantine. They are at risk and they should take precautions. Medical supplies should be reserved for them. On the federal level money to help those with health issues who cannot return to work would be a good idea. Other than that and collecting data there really isn't much they can do.

Some places have specific issues. They may need to shut down their cities to relieve demand for hospital resources. Cities that have behaved irresponsibly for decades are suffering due to their poor decisions. But one size does not fit most. Most of the US is not New York or New Orleans. In fact those places will be better served if everyone else is working and providing the resources they need to get through this.

Now, as I get called heartless and a murderer for all of this, where does Ben have skin in the game? How is Ben personally affected from this and how is Ben profiting?

Ben doesn't have a job. I wasn't fired. I retired before this even began. For family reasons I closed down my business over a month ago. Work closures only affect me minimally.

Ben is an introvert. I don't go out to bars. I usually cook my own food. So restaurants being closed don't affect me much.

Most of my income will come from stocks and other financial deals in the coming years. Yes the bills recently passed will improve my income. Even so I oppose them. They are not generally helpful and they are very expensive. My personal gain is not worth that expense.

The only skin I have in this game is negative for the position I've put out.

Here are the facts.

Over 2.5 million people die in the US every single year.
Over 10,000 people die from the flu every year. Some years it is over 60,000. This is normal and it has happened all of your life.
In 2008 over 10,000 people committed suicide due to the recession. Over 40,000 tried. Only 2.6 million people lost their jobs over that. Last week over 3 million lost their jobs. Most likely another 3 million will lose their jobs this week or more.

Telling people to stay home and lose their jobs isn't saving lives. It is costing them.

(Had to look up "Cantons")

Seriously, take care of yourself over there.

Ben, you're being tremendously silly, but it's not helping you make the argument you've denigrated every day before yesterday. The leaders of France, Britain, and Germany are all serving from isolation due to a calamitous illness that's sickened well more than half a million, killed 25,000 thousand and is still exploding in hotspots and lesser waves across the planet. In response, just 24 hours ago, you mimicked your Orange Beloved:

"It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

Instead most people should return to work. They will get sick. There is nothing that can stop that so they may as well get it over with. ~ Ben at March 27, 2020 7:27 AM

Quarantining is not about keeping people from getting the disease. It's to slow the progress of the disease and avoid overwhelming the hospital emergency rooms - to flatten the infection curve to a rate out medical system can handle.

That there from Conan.

We're managing the when, not the if.

And you are doing it poorly Crid.

Not everywhere has the same hospital load. A point I made. Many areas have next to zero load. People in those areas should return to work. There is no issue there with running out of medial support. Other areas should behave differently.

How many people have to die to massage your ego Crid? How much pain and suffering do you demand?

Conan, most workers aren't going to put load on hospital services. The younger you are the less effect this disease typically has. For most people you aren't actually flattening the curve.

Apparently they're gonna start letting some businesses open here, the Federal Council announced it in their press conference.

And our cell phone data shows we've been good.

Ben, the youngsters can spread it, that is the problem.

"Ben, the youngsters can spread it, that is the problem." ~NicoleK

So what? We've already established we aren't trying to halt the disease. It is going to spread no matter what. The only goal is to reduce load on hospitals so we can save as many of the grievously ill as possible.

So what if your 5 year old spreads it to a 10 year old? What matters is do they spread it to granny who is 80. It doesn't make sense to quarantine the 5 year old. He need to get this and get over this and stop spreading it later. The 80 year old granny needs to be quarantined for her protection. The 5 year old won't be a load on the hospital. He is unlikely to even know he got the stuff.

And as I've said repeatedly, I understand if you are in an area where the hospitals are already overloaded that anything that can slow the spread is a valuable effort. But for most of the US that isn't true. Quarantine efforts aren't without cost. In much of the US the cost in just lives of quarantine may be higher than the costs from the disease.

Thanks, Crid. I have very little contact with people. We go for walks in the woods and maybe cross 3 people, who we stay several meters from. There's plenty of space here in the countryside. It's really just me, the kids and my husband. We're 43 with no pre-existing conditions.

Ben, you are off by a factor of 10. It's 20% that need hospital intervention and the death rate is closer to 2%.

We are all going to get this, but we hope to not all get it at once, so that the hospitals can restock masks and things and so there are enough beds and respirators.

No NicoleK, your numbers are wrong. That is a testing artifact. When you only test those who go to a hospital you get those numbers. When you start testing the general population you see much lower numbers.

South Korea tested about 140,000 people and came up with a fatality rate under 0.6%. Even that is an upper bound. The real number will be much lower. I can't pull up where I got the 0.2% number from with a five minute search, so I will concede to 0.6%.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This paper shows why demographics are such an important part of this disease. Page 5 has a chart breaking things down by age. Also note if you read the fine print this is symptomatic cases. I.e. went to a doctor.

If you are 60 and ill enough to see a doctor, 16% of those cases will require hospitalization. Out of that 16%, 27.4% require acute care. That is 4.3% of those sick enough to see a doctor. 2.2% of those in that age range sick enough to see a doctor will die.

Now compare that with a person in their 20s. Only 1.2% even require hospitalization. Of that group under 5% require acute care. The mortality rate is 0.03% or less.

Note this was only of symptomatic cases. We've already seen that a lot of people get the disease and have no symptoms. It is a reasonable estimate that even these numbers are double reality or more.

So if you said that people 50 and older need to quarantine and those who have jobs will get government guarantees that their jobs will be preserved, I have no problem with it. But closing the school for kids with parents under 40 doesn't make sense. The fatality rate in the 10-20 range is under 0.006%. The fatality rate for their parents is under 0.08%. Should children with elderly parents (grandparents, adopted, etc) be pulled from school? Yes. They are a threat to their parent. There are usually few enough such cases we can accommodate them. But shutting down most cities in the US does not make sense anymore.

If you're in a place with no coronavirus, sure it makes sense.

The problem is Grannie has to deal with some people... food delivery, nurses, etc. If THEY get it.

Or if enough health care professionals get it that they can't go to work (forget dying, just they have it bad enough that they have to stay home) that's a problem too.

I've said over and over that your situation may be different NicoleK. I've been very clear I am talking about the US.

Houston has roughly 200 cases. It has a population of 2.3 million. The city is closed. No schools. Only grocery stores and liquor stores permitted to operate (and those politically connected). Everything else is shut down.

When will it be possible to open this city without killing Grannie, NicoleK? COVID-19 isn't going away. Does the city need to be abandoned? Why can't the people you named that Grannie needs to work with be tested and screened while the rest of them go about their day? After all, you haven't prevented Grannie from getting the disease. You've only changed when by a little bit. Do we need to wait for a cure? For a vaccine? A vaccine at least won't be available for a year. Maybe longer. If the anti-malaria drugs don't pan out there is no timeline on a cure.

As for the point on medical providers getting sick, a city wide quarantine doesn't change that. Proper PPE can help. But a quarantine doesn't change things.

Or alternately walk me through how this will work. How do we save Grannie? When do things go back to normal? And how much will it cost to get there?

> How much pain and suffering
> do you demand?

In your case?

My situation is different for now. The idea is to PREVENT the US from getting to be like Europe. You guys are a few weeks behind.

I think we're looking at occasional periods of lockdown for a year or so. Like people used to do with polio when it was going around. By then most people will have been caught in one wave or another and be either dead or immune. When we're not a virgin population this won't be nearly as bad.

Think about the measles. The measles used to wipe out communities if they'd never had it. But in the west, most people got it when they were kids, had a miserable couple weeks, and were fine. The death rate was still high enough to warrant a vaccine, but no one thought that measles was going to wipe out the whole country. Heck, there was a brady bunch episode about it.

Pandemics are usually followed by economic booms. Like the plague and the Spanish flu.

But Ben, ultimately you are right in that everyone needs to get it this to develop some sort of herd immunity. It won't be as good as measles immunity because it won't be lifetime immunity, but you're right, if we aren't a virgin population it will be more spread out and not overwhelm hospitals so terribly.

The problem is getting us to the initial exposure without overwhelming systems.

Thank you NicoleK. At some point there will be a vaccine for this. Especially since this disease doesn't look like it is going to burn itself out like ebola would. But that isn't going to happen for a year or two. We can only get things done so fast.

It would also be nice if this event got Americans to wear face masks when they are ill and need to go in public. Some Asian nations have been doing that for decades. Americans and Europeans adopting the habit would be a good thing and save lives.

> everyone needs to get it this
> to develop some sort of herd
> immunity.

Like we did with Polio?

Congrats on your continuing stupidity Crid. Never change. Never grow up.