Welcome Back To The Cave
We live in "evolutionarily novel" times -- meaning that we encounter all sorts of things every day that our stone-age-developed human psychology isn't very prepared for.
Good piece in Psychology Today by Maia Szalavitz on how poor our little antique brains are at risk assessment. An excerpt:
I. We Fear Snakes, Not CarsRisk and emotion are inseparable.
Fear feels like anything but a cool and detached computation of the odds. But that's precisely what it is, a lightning-fast risk assessment performed by your reptilian brain, which is ever on the lookout for danger. The amygdala flags perceptions, sends out an alarm message, and—before you have a chance to think—your system gets flooded with adrenaline. "This is the way our ancestors evaluated risk before we had statistics," says Paul Slovic, president of Decision Research. Emotions are decision-making shortcuts.
As a result of these evolved emotional algorithms, ancient threats like spiders and snakes cause fear out of proportion to the real danger they pose, while experiences that should frighten us—like fast driving—don't. Dangers like speedy motorized vehicles are newcomers on the landscape of life. The instinctive response to being approached rapidly is to freeze. In the ancestral environment, this reduced a predator's ability to see you—but that doesn't help when what's speeding toward you is a car.
II. We Fear Spectacular, Unlikely Events
Fear skews risk analysis in predictable ways.
Fear hits primitive brain areas to produce reflexive reactions before the situation is even consciously perceived. Because fear strengthens memory, catastrophes such as earthquakes, plane crashes, and terrorist incidents completely capture our attention. As a result, we overestimate the odds of dreadful but infrequent events and underestimate how risky ordinary events are. The drama and excitement of improbable events make them appear to be more common. The effect is amplified by the fact that media tend to cover what's dramatic and exciting, Slovic notes. The more we see something, the more common we think it is, even if we are watching the same footage over and over.
After 9/11, 1.4 million people changed their holiday travel plans to avoid flying. The vast majority chose to drive instead. But driving is far more dangerous than flying, and the decision to switch caused roughly 1,000 additional auto fatalities, according to two separate analyses comparing traffic patterns in late 2001 to those the year before. In other words, 1,000 people who chose to drive wouldn't have died had they flown instead.
More good stuff at the link above.
This reminds me on the "Summer of the Shark" a few years back. (2003, I think) After that little boy had his arm chomped off by a Bull Shark in the Gulf of Mexico it was all sharks all the time. Turns out that there were actually fewer shark attacks that summer than the previous ten summers. (individually, not combined) Yet, the media had most Americans believing that there was some kind of feeding frenzy of sharks eating people. I blame it on the media and the 24 hour news cycle.
There is a far greater likelihood that you will be killed by a domesticated dog than a shark.
Tom at February 1, 2008 6:15 AM
"Dangers like speedy motorized vehicles are newcomers on the landscape of life. The instinctive response to being approached rapidly is to freeze. In the ancestral environment, this reduced a predator's ability to see you—but that doesn't help when what's speeding toward you is a car."
...wow, I always wondered why in movies people would just stand there if a car was coming at them instead of jumping out of the way. Now it makes more sense - I thought my reaction would be JUMP! but since I've luckily never been in that situation I wouldn't know.
I also wondered why my yelling loudly at the t.v did not reach the character thus helping avoid his/her impending death. This includes things like "Run" and "Don't go upstairs." People always die when they go upstairs.
Gretchen at February 1, 2008 6:55 AM
That fatalities stat is misleading. If 99 people are on a plane only one person is driving. He is a really good driver, that is why he got that job. If those same 99 people decide to drive their cars, a significant percentage of those drivers suck at driving and are much more likely to cause an accident. The pilot in this stat, along with the most highly skilled drivers are safe from harm.
If the airplane malfunctions or crashes for any reason the chances for survival are virtually nil. Meanwhile, if you crash in your car you have a good chance of surviving.
The bottom line is that if you are a good driver, your land lubber car will always be much safer than a gigantic, heavy, high mileage monster that tears through the atmosphere with reckless disregard for wind shear. Most jetliners are so old that if it were your car you wouldn't trust it on a really long cross country trip.
William at February 1, 2008 7:06 AM
People always die when they go upstairs.
Or when they go into the basement. Or when they hear something in the woods behind the house, and go out to investigate, especially when they hear the dog barking, and then he stops. Abruptly. And they always have to go out to see WHY. Idiots. o_O
Flynne at February 1, 2008 7:10 AM
Flynn, I'm w/ you on that...the rustling in the bushes is a monster/warewolf/robot that you will injure in ways that should kill it about 10 times but it won't die. Stop. Do not pass go. Don't go in the house, don't call 911...it's all rigged. You should just kill yourself right when see the shadow of an unknown creature.
Also, after shooting the killer w/ all 400 bullets in the gun they never remove the mask. I know it's scary and the killer will probably pop up and knife your ass but, don't you want to see who it is?? Cause it's probably, like, your grandma or something twisted.
Gretchen at February 1, 2008 7:50 AM
if you are a good driver
I've known many people who thought they were good drivers. I've known very few who actually are. VERY few. In addition to the extensive training, screening, etc. that pilots have to go through, they are backed up by autopilots, radar, traffic controllers and the like, none of which drivers have. As for the airplanes being old - so are trains. Airplanes are built to last much longer than cars, computers or virtually all of the less expensive equipment we use in everyday life.
This isn't to say bad things can't happen in airplanes. They can. Airplanes can be hijacked. Airplanes can be improperly de-iced. And if an airplane suffers an equipment malfunction, you're much more screwed than you are if your car suffers an equipment malfunction. But you can believe that you're the best driver in the world all you want - you're still going to be safer, from a statistical point of view, in an airplane. Especially given that, as you said, your car is surrounded by cars driven by unsafe drivers, while planes are surrounded by other planes flown by highly experienced pilots backed up by radar, technology, ground control, etc.
marion at February 1, 2008 8:00 AM
"That fatalities stat is misleading." In other words, the statistics are for averages and if you're exceptionally good you'll be OK. In other other words, the stats may be bad but if you don't fit the stats you won't fit the stats.
Is it just me or is this just a long winded way of saying nothing?
Norman at February 1, 2008 8:39 AM
Me, I'm an arachniphobe. Spiders scare the shit out of me. Its completly irrational, and doesnt matter what variety either.
The other day I was cleaning my kichen when a jumping spider hit my hand
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Sandalodes_jumping_spider.jpg heres a pic
Next thing I know I'm sitting on top of my refrigerator throwing boxes of crackers at the thing as it scuttled across the floor
lujlp at February 1, 2008 8:44 AM
"If you're a good driver. . ."
The problem with that statement is that it assumes a lot. I mean how does one judge whether or not one is a "good driver." If you surveyed most people, I'm pretty sure they would tell you they're a "good driver." Plus even if they categorically are a "good driver," there are many many incidents you can't control for when driving.
If you're a good driver and your brakes fail when it's starting to rain on the middle of busy highway . . .
If you're a good driver and a drunk comes full speed down a one way road. . .
If you're a good driver, driving an SUV and need to swerve out of the way, the SUV then tips over and rolls around (SUVs aren't safer. you're more likely to die in one of them)
If you're on a road going at a reasonable speed and hit a bad patch of black ice. . .
There are too many variables in driving to simply say that "if you're a good driver" you're not going to have bad things happen to you.
flighty at February 1, 2008 8:59 AM
I usually don't really care about spiders, but that one would definitely get squished. When I was a kid it was grasshoppers.
eric at February 1, 2008 8:59 AM
I, for one, am not ashamed to admit that I'm a terrible, terrible driver, and an even worse person (I ran over 5 people on the way to work today). In fact, I'm kind of proud of it, and you should thank me because I make the rest of you look like a bunch of Mario Andrettis.
Just don't go for a walk, because I got your number.
Snoop-Diggity-DANG-Dawg at February 1, 2008 9:37 AM
I usually don't really care about spiders, but that one would definitely get squished. When I was a kid it was grasshoppers.
For me, it was wasps and yellow jackets, I HATE the damn things.
Flynne at February 1, 2008 10:52 AM
I'm not sure if eric noticed the size of the spider, its about 10mm
Think half the size of your thumbnail if not smalller
lujlp at February 1, 2008 11:11 AM
I don’t think we take driving as seriously as we ought to. My friend Pennie from work will drive her minivan to work, yakking on the phone, drinking coffee, eating a cup of sausage and eggs and putting on her make-up. I saw an accident outside my office window near Miramar airbase and knew it was a fatality by the way they were putting up the yellow tape. It turned out to be my best friends daughter, Colleen, 20 yrs old, 1yr old son. I had known her since she was 13. She died in a single car accident going too fast on the transition ramp to the 52 freeway and lost control, rolled over and hit the viaduct support. Her friend on the phone heard the accident.
Lujlp, I am also arachnophobic. I once found a spider on my desk when I picked up a piece of paper it was hiding under and flipped the whole desk into the air and across the room, and it was one of those heavy metal old government desks full of crap too. I have busted through a shower door, almost wrecked a car, and I’m not even going into the shooting. I got bit by a brown recluse when I was 21 on my wrist and almost lost my arm. It swelled my arm up like a football and I was so sick it could’ve killed me. I am terribly allergic and I wonder if the inborn fear isn’t your brain knowing you are allergic and telling you they are really dangerous to you specifically.
I’ve been riding motorcycles since I was about seven years old. I ride about 15000 miles a year in addition to my car miles. Motorcycle riders are actually better drivers, IN CARS, than most anyone else on the road because they look at the road. You don’t have a choice on a bike. You have to constantly be scanning the road for hazards, oil, things in the road and watching up ahead. Riding bikes is dangerous to an extent, but I don’t fear that. I have split traffic up the I-15 for thirty miles going to Vegas on a Friday afternoon. One of my friends was killed Saturday when an illegal alien decided to do a u-turn in the middle of a blvd in Bonita. He was 55. They probably will not do anything to the driver. I have had probably less than my share of accidents, but they don’t bother me so much. I’ve never been injured in a bike accident but I know that it is highly likely that I will die on one someday. I suppose one of these days it will be my turn if I don’t die of something else.
Bikerken at February 1, 2008 11:31 AM
I am sooooo wishing I had never read this. I started thinking to myself about accidents and the thought popped into my head, "When was the last car accident you were in?" I was initially stumped, I couldn't remember, I was sure there had been at least one, then it dawned on me. I have NEVER had a car accident! NOT ONE. and I'll be fifty years old this year. Now I am scared to death to drive because I feel like my number is up! This sucks! I have got to find a way to get this outta my mind.
Bikerken at February 1, 2008 12:22 PM
When I was young I lost the toes on my right foot from a rock fall when I was working in a mine. To this day I am not afraid of going in a mine or a cave and have no sense of claustrophobia.
On the other hand I'm afraid of heights and flying scares the shit out of me. I've never been on or near a plane that has had an accident and I'm aware of the statistics.
Evolution has only given me so much rationality. The best I've done is to rationally recognize at least some of my irrationalities. Sometimes that allows me to compensate.
Shawn at February 1, 2008 12:32 PM
Walking in a meadow by a wood with my boyfriend one afternoon, I caught sight of a deer bounding out of the wood straight towards us. I immediately hit the dirt and pulled my 6'4" boyfriend on top of me in less than a second.
Turns out it was a little Bambi, and now I can never live down the fact that my reptilian brain will save myself and let others be damned. Pretty pathetic.
liz at February 1, 2008 12:47 PM
Great article, Amy.
Yes, Liz, tall guys are nice to have at Knott's Scary Farm to hide behind!
I live on a very fecund road in Silver Lake - that, or the buildings are exceptionally poorly made, with cracks everywhere to let little things inside. I discovered that I don't mind spiders at all if they stay on the ceiling. They take care of moths who fly in to eat my wool. The ones with gangly legs seem to survive the cold months, hiding somewhere, but darker, uglier ones keep ending up in my tub, unable to climb out, and seemingly unable to build webs to survive. After one or two tub sitings, I carefully dump them out of the window to plantings below.
The spider I worry about most (for them, not for me) is almost transparent, and its legs wobble and shake with every step, as if it's just about to collapse. I watch carefully for these. I don't know how they manage to survive.
One day I noticed a strange grey cylinder had formed on my bathroom flourescent light. Had it really been that long since I had dusted there? I watched it, and eventually saw a rather large wasp coming in my window and entering the light. Turns out it was a mud wasp, and - WARNING - WARNING - DO NOT READ FURTHER IF TORTURE UPSETS YOU --
As I read, it was a mud wasp, which is generally considered very beneficial to farmers, etc, when it builds nests in the barn. She has a separate cell for each of her eggs, and also seals up a small spider in the cell to serve as food for the baby wasp when it is born. So the spiders are buried alive.
As I said, I rather like spiders, and this was totally unacceptable to me, and although the wasp never moved towards me, she was rather large, and kept coming in and out of the window with wet mud, I assume. So I waited til she left one day, closed the window, and had a handyman carefully vacuum the small grey nest.
The one creature I've seen just a couple of times that scares me is a millipede. It makes my hair stand on end. I read that they are totally harmless, but I can't stand looking at them in any way, even when they are outside on a wall. And Bikerken, I've always been afraid, reading about the brown recluse! I'm surprised you survived that. I read that you can lose whole pieces of flesh that won't grow back. And I have a cousin who was a paramedic, and, yes, you'll die on your bike.
Donna B. at February 1, 2008 2:54 PM
Completely OT, Amy, but I do think there is room for commentary about how women's mandated dress in the Middle East is being utliized by those financing suicide bombers. Something for those in power over there to consider. But of course, they won't
moe99 at February 1, 2008 3:45 PM
Donna, I actually had a big hole that you could stick your whole index finger into on the side of my wrist. I was lucky though, I didn't lose any skin, I just have a small scar on the outside of my right writst. I had heart problems and everything. If I was not 21 and in excellent health, I probably would have died. But after that, I'm more terrified of spiders than ever. And a brown recluse is not a big spider, it's usually less than an inch long. No bright colors to warn you. Just plain dirty brown. It looks like the kind of spider you would laugh at somebody being afraid of and it can kill you.
I know the odds are very high that I'll get killed on a bike, but I'm okay with that. If I had to choose a way to go, it's either that or sex. Mostly, it's the younger kids on the crotch rockets with less than a year or two riding experience that kill themselves on bikes. Old bastards like me on big heavy bikes that really don't ride that fast are usually taken out by someone elses mistake. That's why I watch everyone else so closely.
It blows my mind that I never realized I'v never been in a car accident. Is that unusual? I would think that most people had by this age, almost 50. Maybe that's not as unusual as I thought.
Bikerken at February 1, 2008 4:13 PM
At last a topic I can contribute semi-intelligently too!
I'm part of a consulting team that works to improve aircrew safety in military aircraft. One of the big things that we emphasize is the effects of stress/ fear. Namely that fear and stress cause your brain to shut down from the front to the back. What makes this significant is that the front part of the brain is where you do all your logical thinking. The back part of your brain, the reptilian part near your spine, is pure instinct and reaction. All you have to fall back on is what your body already knows how to do. This is why people in dangerous professions run through many many drills before they see any action. So that when their brain shuts down, their body will still know what to do.
Elle at February 1, 2008 6:26 PM
Donna, where do you live, you said, Silver Lake, it that Silver Lake MI, near the dunes? I used to live in Muskegon years ago. Thats where I got bit by a brown recluse, there pretty much east of the Rockies. I love the summer and fall up there.
Bikerken at February 1, 2008 7:11 PM
Bikerken -
My dad is seventy-two and logs a whole hell of a lot of miles annually. He has never, not one time been in a car accident.
I had a friend who rode bike for over fifty years. Probably more than you and in the winter too. Probably twenty-five years or more of it, he had no quams about riding drunk. He died three years ago, of heart failure, at seventy-seven. He rode bike into his seventies, stopping only when he was declared legally blind and they took his license away. He actually rode for a little while after that, until his kids literally took away his bike. I imagine that if they hadn't done that, he would have died on his bike.
I am actually terrified of spiders, especially since moving to Oregon, where brown recluses are common. They are generally not fatal, if the victim is in even halfway reasonable health. But a friend of my son's, almost lost her arm from a bite.
William -
Dude, share the wealth, I want whatever you've been smoking.
Cars are most assuredly not safe, no matter how good a driver you are. Other drivers can cause accidents that involve the very best drivers, occasionally killing or maiming them. The stats are not misleading in the least, it is far more likely that someone driving (or riding in a car) will die of a traffic accident than it is that someone who flies all the time will die in a plane crash.
DuWayne at February 1, 2008 8:00 PM
I'll second Bikerken on bikers being better drivers - but only marginally, because they watch for bikes. They still haven't determined how to recover from a slide, how quickly they can stop, etc., and they are still distracted by all the other crap you can do in a car besides drive.
And they usually can't ride their bike worth a damn, either.
I can say this with confidence, because I've personally seen the difference one day at STAR school (www.starmotorcycle.com) makes - on a man who thought he could ride, and who had been for 25 years: me. Jason Pridmore - or his competitors, at Schwantzschool or Superbikeschool - will give you so much spare time on the road, and teach you so many things about what you're doing weirdly and wrong... The tuition to such a school is the best money you'll ever spend on motorcycling.
There are those who shy away from school of any kind. They don't like to be shown how little they really know. I've heard the excuse, "Why do I need to go to a racetrack? I don't ride on a racetrack!" because of this fear. Well, the joy of seeing what you're taught really working will reward you far in excess of any reservations you might have at being clumsy. (Being afraid you'll look clumsy is your guts telling you, you really DO suck at that.) And if you don't think you're racing on the Interstate, think about being between the minivan driver on the phone and the semi hauling cattle. You'd better know ahead of time, because you're not going to learn by doing!
Radwaste at February 2, 2008 7:02 AM
I know what you mean Rad, I actually taught the motorcycle safety course in the Navy. The course is much harder on a bigger heavier bike. Most people borrow a little yamaha or something to do it. I did it on my softail. I've ridden over 300,000 miles as far as i can tell adding up the mielage of the bikes over the years. I have had a few fender benders on a bike buy never been hurt. I'm sure it'll happen eventually. I don't know what else you would do on a bike beside ride, I don't do phones or radios, rarely even talk to passengers. I'm always wondering what some stupid thing someone in a car or truck is going to do next. I used to race too, but only Enduro dirt tracks back in Michigan. Coudln't do that now, my back couldn't take the pounding.
Every time I see one of those assholes doing wheelies on the freeway, I want to squeeze their damn head off.
Bikerken at February 2, 2008 10:29 AM
Elle, that's really interesting, and it makes perfect sense.
Bikerken and Duwayne, what are the odds two people on Amy's blog have some experience with the brown recluse??? It's really pretty rare.
Bikerken, no, that's Silver Lake, in Los Angeles proper, 5 minutes from Hollywood. Which is why the prodigious variety of spiders, etc here is so strange. I've decided to write more about them, and I'll call it Insects I Have Known, and I'll link to this post and your spider experience.
I do love the seasons, though, so perhaps I should visit the other Silver Lake as soon as.
Donna B. at February 2, 2008 3:53 PM
I've already been in 2 pretty serious car accidents, where the cars have been total writeoffs, and I only got a bit of bruising from the seatbelt on the second one. That one was fun, full head-on collision going about 55 kph (whatever that is in mph-I can't convert). My brother and I were in an old Caddie, which I think is similar to a small tank, so we were both fine. The other guy was in a Hyundai with no seat belt, so he wasn't.
I read that book Amy recommended about statistics and how they're misused. There's that quote, 'There are lies, damn lies, and statistics' something like that.
It's good to know how probable something is to put things in perspective. I'm just back from Cancun and there was no way I was going to go parasailing because that looked way too dangerous. Anyone know if people get hurt doing that?
Chrissy at February 2, 2008 5:18 PM
By the way, I'm not afraid of driving, flying, spiders or snakes. I AM afraid of monkeys and clowns, so my primitive ancestors must have been a strange bunch.
Chrissy at February 2, 2008 5:31 PM
I went parasailing in Mexico once, the boat dragging me hit a fairly large fish and stalled, once I realised what was happening I started unbuckeling my harness
Broke my damn finger as I hit the water, caught it in the harness, but I was 3/4 of the way out when I hit, kicked myself under the water and dragged myself along the rope as the chute settled over where I had landed
Luckily I had some navy buddies warn me of the danger of getting trapped under a chute in open water
Of couse the guys in boat were freaking out, the wave swells were so large they didnt see my until I had hauled myself halfway to the boat along the tow rope
lujlp at February 3, 2008 1:53 AM
I'm like Charlie Brown -- everything freaks me out. I'm always joking that I wish I could afford to give in to my agorophobia and never leave the house. My daughter just rolls her eyes and comments she knows that will never happen because I love running to the store too much. She might seriously have a point. The controller on my PS2 gave way and she works at the mall and offered to pick one up next day she worked. Well, while she was out, I got on the bus and up to the used game store for the new controller. Came away with yet another Sims game and a Finding Nemo game (my grandson's my "excuse" on that one and I'm sticking to it, but damn that game is cute and not as easy as you'd think).
I hate myself for it because I'm such an independent female but creepy crawlies of all sorts scare the shit out of me. I've got one rule of thumb for them: stay outside where you belong and I'll happily let you go your own way. Invade my terroritory and you must die. Absolutely, must. I can not go to sleep knowing you're in my house and might crawl on me. I know that's unreasonable. I don't care.
Donna at February 4, 2008 11:50 AM
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