Two things:
1) If you can't tell where the nuke came from, you can't shoot back.
2) Portable stuff has been around for about 50 years.

See The Nuclear Weapon Archive.

If you are a particularly shallow thinker, you might regard the breakup of the USSR as a "good thing". Not even close, from the nuke weapons point of view - or looking at the numerous chemical- and bio-weapons labs abandoned over there. Splintered, the Soviets' nuke inventory split, too. Some of these weapons have been in questionable hands for awhile.

I just hope that anybody with a serious attitude about the USA will be held back by the possibility of being identified and eradicated. Or maybe by the promise of a bailout. Or by the plain, mean desire to wield obvious power in causing the suffering of others and to be seen telling others what to do. That's hard to do if they're dead.

Great blog today!!!!!!!!!!!!

Along the lines of what Radwaste's wrote, it seems to me that terrorists using a nuclear weapon of the former Soviet Union is a far likelier threat to us than an ICBM from Iran or North Korea. Neither of those countries seems hell bent on its own destruction, which is what would happen if it were to launch a nuclear missile. Even a successful EMP attack as described above would not affect our ability to retaliate and destroy either nation.

For both Iran and North Korea, pursuit of nuclear weapons is a rational way to achieve leverage against foreign powers that they currently lack. When Iran becomes nuclear-armed (my reading suggests that the impending attack by Israel will not be sufficient to destroy their capabilities), it will be a significant constraint on Israel and on the Sunni powers in the region. However, they are still unlikely to actually use such a weapon in aggression, as doing so would mean they become the world's largest parking lot. And using it against Israel would mean risking destroying one of Islam's holiest cities. Iran will become nuclear armed, and like other questionable states with nuclear weapons, will be constrained from using that power in the way Gingrich fears.

The far likelier nuclear threat is a terrorist cell smuggling a bomb into a city. Missile defense is nowhere near the importance of border security.

The even likelier threat is a nuclear weapon launched from some nondescript ship off our shore. Missile defense is just as important as border security.

cheezburg, you are ost certainly assuming that both NK and Iran are headed by people who are not crazy. This is true so far, but only JUST.

What is ultimately true is that it isn't an either/or proposistion. We need to worry about the terroristas AND the state sponsored stuff. As was seen with the Indians and Pakistanis, letting them have one or two to make them feel better doesn't help at all, and in these cases there are reasons not to let people have nukes just because they feel like it.

Having a nuke that you don't use today is one thing, but what happens in 20 years? What if the next head of NK is loopier than the current one?
Making an assumption that they don't want to be blown up IS a pretty standard thing when you put yourself in their shoes, but mostly because you aren't looking at it from their perspective. Islamist have their eyes on a prize that doesn't even exist in this life, and NK was willing to starve their people to death.

You may remember how shellshocked we were after 9/11? May they rest in peace. That was 'only' 3000 people. How many do you think would die if Spokane was targeted? What would happen then? Sure we could turn NK into molten glass, but the worldwide fallout would have astounding consequences. The aggressor in such an attack is certainly going to be reviled forever, and they might even want that. Iran does the same thing and the fallout plume goes over some very important places on earth. Plus+ in either scenario, how are the Chinese going to react? Do you seriously believe they are going to allow a massive retaliation? What if they decide their neighbor isn't to blame?

This has got all sorts of ugly written on it. Important to note:
It would be WAY cheaper for NK to have commercial launch services somewhere else launch their satellite. So that isn't it.
It is also stupid to say that they feel threatened as long as China is their friend.

Both arguments are totally without merit.

When you are guarding something, you have to guard all the time. Not just when you feel like it.

"Far too many timid or uninformed sources maintain that a single launch of a missile poses no true threat to the United States, given our retaliatory power."

No smoking around the straw man, please. How about citing these timid and/or uniformed sources for us, Newt?

LOL 'uninformed' sources, not 'uniformed' sources!
Wouldn't want to be quoting the UPS truck driver, eh?
More coffee, stat.

Amy, really, your fanaticism to Gingrich is as bad as you accuse others of having for Obama.

Screw how intelligent he is. His idea of religious freedom is god of your choice. Thank God (pun intended) he's not President.

Obama certainly has flaws. But this is one area, and as a nonbeliever a crucial one as far as I'm concerned, he's hands down superiour to your idol. At least he respects the right to disbelieve.

Oh, and he's not even smart enough -- though he brags he's a historian -- to know that the Pledge of Allegiation as originally written purposely ommitted God. And, yes, it was written by a minister. He, unlike Gingrich, recognized the importance of church-state separation.

Amy, doesn't it trouble you that Newt is the darling of Rush Limbaugh, and vice versa? How do you reconcile that?

Rojy, just curious: Why do you think saying "Rush Limbaugh" equals "cholera"?

Limbaugh != cholera. Limbaugh = McDonald's.

Just curious Swiss- why did you choose Spokane?

I'll take one Limbaugh over 1,000 Obamas.

Oh, and TG - you really gotta get over this God hatred.

Newt won't make you go to church any more than Bush did.

The Supreme Court won't allow that.

T's G, will it really matter if you believe or not if we're all dead? Gosh, getting fried to death with radiation really sucked, but at least I died having my right to believe in nothing whatsoever in this world or out of it respected! That's what's really important, you know.

We all have better things to do than save your soul, trust me. Even Newt.

er, yeah, Spokane was random northwest city... Seattle's closer. Essentially the northwest seaboard is the closest to NK, and the radioactive plume will extend over populations as it moves east. SF and LA might also be in play though they are farther. Nobody really knows the range of the Taepodong-2 or variants Though some say it is as limited as only 4000km or as much as 10,000km.

Either way, our friends in Japan are right there. Making it seem like you are aiming at us but really targeting them isn't beyond the question.

Really I see this as a test of capability, to see if they can get the launch to work. Rockets with that kind of range are very complex, so you have to test a lot. The more you test, the more sure you are you can launch one. Then you sell the tech to Iran as they have done in the past, and, there you go. Nutcases with delivery capability. Doesn't have to be real nukes, could be radiologic, biologic, or just shrapnel raining down on a city center at rush hour. The kinetic energy would be a lot.

Amy- Did you read the last graph of that linked piece?

Gingrich's most recent book, Rediscovering God in America (2006, Integrity Publishers), is a paean to Christian Right arguments that liberals have weakened the United States by undermining the role of religion, specifically Christianity, in public life.

And this from his wiki entry (and by the way, as a younger man I'd have thought "wiki entry" was some irresistible yet forbidden sexual practice):

Gingrich has been married three times. He married Jackie Battley, his former high school geometry teacher, when he was 19 years old (she was seven years his senior at 26 years old).[9][10] They had two daughters and divorced in 1981. She claims he "discussed divorce terms with her while she was recuperating in the hospital from cancer surgery[".]

Also, you can't complain about being filtered when your links have anchors like "fucking". I and others here appreciate your clarity, but still.

I don't see why private life matters, unless it's illegal things. What matters is competence. I don't care how many wives or girlfriends a pol has if he does his damn job well.

Those of you who are objecting to something because of who said it are engaging in a fallacy.

You should stand over there, by the people who think that something President Obama says is right because he said it.

Check your personal opinion with this easy method: imagine the quote or idea you're viewing as if someone you deplore brought it up.

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I think the nuke weapons archive link should have shown you all that walking into the US is the easiest way to place an atomic bomb. I dunno why anyone's going on about missile technology; at least five nations can track launches back to their origin.

I mean, Hardtack Juniper was only a 15" x 15" cylinder weighing 168 pounds, and it was 65 kilotons.

In 1958.

A Honda Insight could carry that, and it's worth a million people in Brooklyn immediately, and hundreds of thousands more in the resulting panic.

So. How do you feel about outdoor barbeque?

that's true, Radwaste, and that's why we have to guard against that too, not instead of.

You see, if you are a despot with delusions of grandeur, it just isn't glorious to smuggle something in and kill people with it. That's osama stuff. He doesn't have a country to run. If you are the ruler of a country, you gots to have hardware. Something to have in parades, something glorious. You may not even intend to use it. But your bastard son might. Concept, Proof of Concept, Testing, Implementation, Systems Test, Launch. Rinse Lather Repeat.
That is why you have THIS Regulation

I think the nuke weapons archive link should have shown you all that walking into the US is the easiest way to place an atomic bomb. I dunno why anyone's going on about missile technology; at least five nations can track launches back to their origin.

You're missing the point. A ground level, below about 3000 FT AGL explosion of a nuke will take out the location, there will be some fallout depending on how dirty the weapon is. But the area will be recoverable -- I bet Hiroshima and Nagasaki have lower background radiation levels than around some coal powered electric plants.

The threat is that if the nukes were able to be detonated outside the atmosphere (about 100 miles or more) over the US -- just about every bit of technology will be wiped out. Computers, cell phones, TVs, radios, most land line phones, most cars, electronic cash registers, ATMs will be dead as a doornail.

Starfish Prime, a nuclear test in 1962 took out a chunk of Hawaii's infrastructure from 900 miles away with only a 1.4 megaton nuke. We have 10MT and 100MT in our inventory. What do you think the nut cases will develop. A 10KT weapon? -- Hell NO! they are going to go for the biggest bang for the buck.

Jim -

I doubt the "nutcases" have the tech to make an enriched atom bomb, or a fusion (hydrogen) bomb, so any yield about about 25-30kt is outside their reach for now.

But even a 30kt device is gonna ruin somebody's day.

But even a 30kt device is gonna ruin somebody's day.

Granted. But if some idiot in Russia, Georgia, the Ukraine, etc. gets really dumb and greedy and sells off a nuke.......

By "a nuke" are you referring to a thermonuclear device?

That still presupposes a delivery mechanism. It's not easy to hide a fusion bomb. They aren't nearly as small as fission bombs. In fact, they contain several fission bombs to create the pressure that makes the hydrogen canister implode and undergo fusion.

Neither Iran nor NK possesses a sufficient vehicle for delivery - yet. NK's test launch is certainly a step towards that direction. The Iranians will be there to witness and analyze the launch as well.

The time to nip this in the bud is now. Or, in the words of Adm. Painter: "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."

They aren't nearly as small as fission bombs.

If you look at the MIRV warheads in the Peacekeeper and figure the Soviet Union had something similar you are looking at 185 KT -- granted not the MT range. But to boost that to "orbit" it could probably be done.

With live warheads, each line would represent the explosive power of twenty Hiroshima-sized (Little Boy) weapons.

No matter what -- religious nutcases with nukes scares the crap out of me. It needs to be stopped sooner, rather than later.