The State Of Terrorism
Spencer Ackerman writes on Wired:
Here's the thing. It's very difficult to kill mass quantities of people with car bombs. So much has to go right: the explosive mixture, finding a target that's packed with enough people, and avoiding detection and arrest at any stage of the plot. If a terrorist is lucky, he will kill dozens of people. It will be horrible. It will also be orders of magnitude less damaging than what al-Qaida pulled off 10 years ago.There is only one kind of terrorism that actually is a major threat: nuclear terrorism. And there, the U.S. has shamefully underreacted. It's a travesty that there's unsecured nuclear material in this day and age, and the Obama administration's efforts to secure it, however incomplete, deserve credit. But notice that's a problem about unsecured nuke material, not al-Qaida. Lock up the loose nukes -- and yes, that's difficult -- and there's no nuclear terrorism. What's more, the difficulty of al-Qaida acquiring that material, even with its ties to the spy service of nuclear Pakistan, is reflected in the fact that al-Qaida's most ambitious plots now involve ... car bombs.
There are any number of ways to crunch the data. But the bottom line is that you are vastly more likely to die in a car accident than from a car bomb.
Remember we are dealing with a culture and an organization that is not filled with the smartest people.
I think capable engineers and scientists willing to die for a cause and little/no pay is a big problem for them. Not surprised they dig up the dregs of people whose biggest project is a pipe bomb.
This is what surprises me after all these years is that not more attacks have happened? AQ seems to just concentrate on trying for big spectacles and high body count. Wow you did an amazing work - you killed over 3000 people, Ok get back to work. Let's see if we can replicate it with more then 5000 people next time.
There are plots both Hollywood and practical/realistic that could be done to strike terror into a enemy.
Thank God! That they keep fighting in this stupid way.
John Paulson at September 12, 2011 11:18 PM
Paragraph five: "[T]his is actually a relatively unlethal weapon".
See also all of this one.
Crid [CridComment at gmail] at September 12, 2011 11:21 PM
All you need to kill lots of people in a confined space is a competent chemist and a competent HVAC technician.
And I agree with John Paulson's comment above.
As far as dirty bombs being unlethal, that's true. But high body counts isn't exactly the goal of terrorism. Terror is. And dirty bomb will do quite nicely in that arena.
I R A Darth Aggie at September 13, 2011 6:04 AM
Oh it's all so simple, good think Stuart Ackerman has set us straight.
Sorry but that article is asinine. There are other legitimate large scale threats and securing nukes takes a little more than the old college try. How about in honor of 9/11 we put a moratorium on ill informed pontifications regarding terrorism. I'd prefer that.
paulo at September 13, 2011 6:48 AM
Only semi-related, but do see this blog post. The government once again violates someone's right big-time. Interrogation and strip-search, with no probable cause in sight - it's not clear, but she may not have even been formally arrested.
a_random_guy at September 13, 2011 8:03 AM
In a word, Bhopal. Nukes are not the only thing to worry about, nor are they the most likely thing to worry about.
MarkD at September 13, 2011 9:07 AM
Finally, some common sense.
We spend $1 trillion annually on national defense-VA-homeland security boondoggle-a-rama, or about $3,333 for every man, woman and child in the USA.
If you pay federal income taxes (about one-half the population does), you probably will chip in an average of $6000 this year. And next year. And last year.
And we have no military enemies. There may be a few hundred loosely affiliated, poorly coordinated terrorist out there. Big whoop. We are a nation of 300 million.
In the last ten years, 480,000 Americans have been killed--in auto accidents and gunshots.
If you are afraid of terrorists, you can bomb-proof your house, and drive an armored car around.
Our "defense" agencies, like all federal agencies, have become coprolitic and parasitic.
We shoot target defense spending to one percent of GDP, about an 80 percent cut.
BOTU at September 13, 2011 9:38 AM
I guess the TSA agents don't make enough money, now they're pusing pills:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44502230/ns/local_news-hartford_ct/?GT1=43001
Flynne at September 13, 2011 12:30 PM
Darth Aggie nailed it: there's a LOT of commonly available stuff out there that, mixed right, is toxic as hell and easy to use in a terror attack.
Ever read Williamson's book The Weapon? that's one of the attacks used on some buildings in it.
Firehand at September 13, 2011 2:11 PM
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