I Could Link Prostate Cancer To Dog Walking But That Doesn't Mean Dog Walking Causes Statistics
The more media we have, the more apparent it is that we elect utter morons to represent us. Neal Colgrass writes for Newser that a New Hampshire Republican lawmaker Jeanine Notter proclaimed that women's use of the pill is linked to prostate cancer in men.
It's maybe also linked to, oh, more wearing of the color teal, but that doesn't mean that the pill causes teal. A link is merely an association, and you can find associations with lots of things that aren't causal. The cause or causes could be entirely different.
From the story:
The study said men have higher prostate cancer rates in nations where women use the pill more often, but the pill wasn't blamed specifically. "This is just a hypothesis generating idea," said a co-author of the study. "Women should not be throwing away the pill because of this."
via ifeminists
This is almost as dumb as my friend blaming her daughter's FAD on the father.
Kendra at February 20, 2012 12:36 AM
In 1965 as a freshman in Perry County High School (very rural Tennessee), my General Science (a required subject) teacher drilled "correlation is not causation" into us incessantly and laid traps in lectures, tests and readings to verify that we understood it. I keep hearing and reading about all the progress in the education product, but if it were to be true what could be the excuse of all the "educated" people failing to understand something so simple? I'm coming to believe that it may be worse than not understanding, and be deliberate misrepresentation. The question "Why would they do that?" raises some frightening speculations.
RRRoark at February 20, 2012 1:07 AM
Wait, is the teal thing true? If so what a funny coincidence
NicoleK at February 20, 2012 3:35 AM
Contraceptive pills, injections and the stuff that co
Ed off your IUD are carcinogens. They are in the same class as asbestos, according to WHO, and are showing up in municiple water supplies. The rise in breasts cancer mirrors the rise in birth control use. I am not saying it is the only cause of these thing but we should take an honest look at it and why not figure out if it effects prostate cancer while we are at it. Woman need all of the information available so as to be able to make an informed decision.
JosephineMO7 at February 20, 2012 4:18 AM
Here's the example I use to explain correlation to my kids, which came from a statistics textbook I had in college thousands of years ago, back in the 1980s:
One can draw a direct correlation between children's shoe sizes and performance on a standardized math test. It's true! Children with larger shoe sizes will do better on the test, by and large.
Of course, at no point did we account for the age of the children taking the test, and the older children, with bigger feet and years more arithmetic under their belts, will probably know more of the answers...
Old RPM Daddy at February 20, 2012 4:47 AM
RRRoark write: I keep hearing and reading about all the progress in the education product"
Um, what progress would that be? Schools are provably producing inferior results compared to your time in school in the 1960s. On the subject causation and correlation, I saw a very nice graph that graphed federal expenditures on education vs. education performace of graduates. As the former went up, the latter went down. Causation? Correlation?
Here is some information to make the point: Every three years, the PISA project compares educational results amongst all OECD countries. Look at the "progress" of the USA just in the course of 9 years:
- Year 2000: US ranks 15th in reading, 19th in math and 14th in science.
- Year 2009: US ranks 17th in reading, 31st in math and 23rd in science.
The public education system in the US is collapsing. Federal involvement, overly powerful teachers unions, political correctness, NCLB, bloated administration - all of these factors prevent schools from actually educating our kids.
a_random_guy at February 20, 2012 6:28 AM
The public education system in the US is collapsing. Federal involvement, overly powerful teachers unions, political correctness, NCLB, bloated administration - all of these factors prevent schools from actually educating our kids.
Don't forget religion. I wonder how much time and money we've spent teaching kids about intelligent design, and even taking it seriously as an educational topic, when we could have been teaching math.
Another factor is the "not MY child" issue. Schools used to be able to discipline children. I don't recommend we go back to the days when teachers could beat kids with rulers, but it's very hard to run a classroom when every child -- and more importantly, every child's mother, father and lawyer -- is a special, sensitive snowflake.
MonicaP at February 20, 2012 8:45 AM
I take this about as seriously as I do this one-liner by George Carlin: Saliva causes cancer, but only when swallowed in small amounts over a long period of time.
And some of his birth control name suggestions: WombBroom, MomBomb, PregNot...damn, can't remember the rest.
Pricklypear at February 20, 2012 8:51 AM
Everyone would benefit from a basic stats class; fewer people would get excited about potentially spurious correlations. This woman needs a quick explanation of the third-variable problem in correlational research.
Josephine: The picture with the pill is complicated, as long term use is associated with lower incidence of many cancers (uterine, ovarian, bowel), though I believe you are correct about a small link with breast cancer.
Christopher at February 20, 2012 9:47 AM
Estrogen is required for the expansion of breast tissue, so in women predisposed to breast cancer the argument that the piill might be responsible for an increase in breast cancer isnt too outlandish. Ofcouse the prevalence of breats cancer in post menopausal women with very low levels of estrogen throws a mokey wrench in that theory
lujlp at February 20, 2012 12:34 PM
Of COURSE there are higher rates of prostate cancer in nations in which women use the pill more often. Nations in which women use the Pill most often are typically First World countries (where women have access to regular, high-level medical care from which to obtain the Pill, clean drinking water with which to take daily pills, and career options/freedom that encourage limiting family size). First World countries tend to have longer lifespans than non-First World countries. One's risk of getting most cancers is strongly linked to one's lifespan, given that the longer one lives, the more one's cells divide, and the more opportunities one has to experience the irregular cell division that leads to cancer. Prostate cancer falls into the "most cancers" category -- the older you get, the more your risk rises. Ergo, nations with higher Pill usage have higher levels of prostate cancer, with no direct connection needed. GAH.
As for the Pill's connection to cancer, it is linked to a higher risk of breast cancer. Women with a strong family history of breast cancer are advised to either avoid it or be very careful with it (such as using the mini-pill, which only contains progesterone). However, the Pill is ALSO strongly linked to a lower risk of ovarian cancer, as it reduces the cell division in ovaries through the suppression of ovulation. There are proven tests for breast cancer -- not to mention the fact that one's breasts are on the outside of one's body and thus can be examined by touch. There are no proven tests for ovarian cancer, the symptoms associated with it are indistinguishable from those of countless other maladies (bloating, abdominal discomfort, etc, etc.), and it is quite deadly unless caught early (which it rarely is). Given all that, portraying the Pill as some sort of angel of cancerous death seems to me to be rather misleading. YMMV.
marion at February 20, 2012 1:35 PM
Well the sale of ice cream causes spousal abuse. It has been know for years that ice cream sales in the month of August goes through the roof. Also there is a rise in spousal abuse in August.
So therefore the rise in ice cream sales cause the rise in spousal abuse.
But what no one has explained is where ice cream sales correlate to the April rise in spousal abuse.
Jim P. at February 20, 2012 7:35 PM
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