Why Middle Eastern Governments Might Not Be Islamicized
Tarek Osman, author of the best-selling book, Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser to Mubarak, writes about the rise of political Islam at The Cairo Review of Global Affairs:
But this Islamization will not succeed. First, despite the piousness of the vast majority of Muslim Arabs, themselves the commanding majorities of the region, the Islamization efforts inherently challenge the national identities of each country. Despite clever rhetoric, Islamization means the domination of one component of Egyptianism, Tunisianity, Syrianism, etc, over other components that had shaped these entrenched identities. This is especially true in the old countries of the Arab world, the ones whose borders, social compositions, and crucially identities had been carved over long, rich centuries. And the more the Islamist movements continue to thrust their worldviews and social values, the more they will disturb these national identities, and the more agitated--and antagonized--the middle classes of these societies will become.Second, these efforts at Islamization take place when almost all of these societies are undergoing difficult--and for many social classes, painful--economic transitions. And there is no way out. The ruling Islamist executives are compelled to confront the severe structural challenges inherent in the economies they inherited. Some are able to buy time and postpone crucial reforms through foreign grants (which come at a political price). But sooner or later, they will have to make the tough socio-economic decisions that these structural reforms require. Islamists in office will be blamed for the pains that will ensue. Rapidly, some of the constituencies that had voted them into power will seek other alternatives.
Third, demographics will work against these efforts at Islamization. Close to 200 million of the Arab world's 340 million people are under 30-years old. As a result of the many failures it has inherited, this generation faces a myriad of socio-economic challenges on a daily basis. A culture of protest and rejection has already been established amongst its ranks, and young people will not accept indoctrination--even if it was presented in the name of religion. Almost by default, the swelling numbers of young Arabs, especially in the culturally vibrant centers of the Arab world (Cairo, Tunis, Beirut, Damascus, Casablanca, Kuwait, Manama), will create plurality--in social views, political positions, economic approaches, and in social identities and frames of reference.
Finally, this Islamization project, in its various parts, will suffer at the hand of its strategists and managers. The leaderships of the largest Islamist groups in the Arab world have immense experiences in developing and managing services and charity infrastructures, operating underground political networks, fund-raising, and electoral campaigning, especially in rural and interior regions. But they suffer an acute lack of experience in tackling serious political-economy challenges or administering grand socio-political narratives. Lack of experience will result in incompetence.
via @MargRev







I'm not all rainbows and puppy dogs on this topic. My guess is that much like the Reformation (or the fall of the Soviet Union for that matter) there will be winners and losers. There will be some countries who successfully enter the 21st century, and then there will be those that will find themselves reinventing the Iron Age.
Andrew Hall at July 9, 2013 3:33 AM
It's interesting because Islam presents itself as an absolute doctrine for living, but there are different denominations of Islam -- they can't all be right. Or maybe it's like a lot of Protestant demoninations, where the doctrinal differences are actually small, but the cultural differences are larger.
Cousin Dave at July 9, 2013 10:03 AM
Muslim joke:
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What is really disturbing is that I had to go to the second page of google to find this joke again.
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I'd like you to google "arab on arab deaths". We're a minority in the white world.
Jim P. at July 9, 2013 10:29 PM
"...To which he said, "What! You're a mubtadi'!" then pushed him off of the bridge."
This is a variation of a great joke by Emo Philips. In the original, he uses christian sects working down to a particular variation of Baptist. I hope that your source of the joke attributes it to him, otherwise it is a rip off.
wambut at July 11, 2013 4:45 AM
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