Well Who Could Have Predicted This?
I mean, outside of everyone?
The Obama admin says that only 28 percent of ACA enrollees are ages 18 to 34, report Louise Radnofsky and Anna Wilde Mathews in the WSJ:
WASHINGTON--Just more than a quarter of the eight million people who signed up for health plans under the Affordable Care Act are in the prized demographic of 18 to 34 years old, falling short of the figure considered ideal to keep down policy prices....One big insurer, Florida Blue, had projected an average age for enrollees in the late 30s, but instead is seeing a figure in the low 40s. The difference is "significant," said Senior Vice President Jon Urbanek. It would "tend to drive a higher rate increase" for next year, he said. But the impact is likely to be blunted by provisions in the law designed to compensate insurers that end up with higher-than-anticipated medical claims.
The 28% proportion falls short of the 40% share that young adults represented in the potential target population for the exchange plans, according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation. But for the insurance industry, the key is how the demographics of the sign-ups stack up against assumptions they made when they set their rates.
The health law bars insurers from charging riskier consumers more, and as a result, the health plans have said they need a large number of younger people and men to sign up to balance out the likely higher medical claims incurred by older people and women. Insurers view women as costlier to cover because of pregnancy and other female health needs.
And I wonder... how much of those 18-34 year-olds are the healthy young folks needed to keep rates down.
There is an assumption that younger people are healthy, but that's not really the case. How many of those 18-34 year olds have diabetes, cancer, heart issues, etc?
Shannon M. Howell at May 2, 2014 5:04 AM
"But the impact is likely to be blunted by provisions in the law designed to compensate insurers that end up with higher-than-anticipated medical claims."
Subsidies and bailouts for everyone! What could go wrong?
Cousin Dave at May 2, 2014 6:41 AM
That's a great point, Shannon. I'm part of that demographic and while generally, I've always been very healthy, lately, I haven't been. I continually hear "You're too young to have so many health issues." as if illness is only for certain ages... And my rates have gone beyond reasonable so I've had to make some very tough choices regarding my own health care recently even though I have coverage.
I am starting to resent being responsible my entire life. I have a feeling if I'd allowed myself to get knocked up as a single woman in my late teens/eartly twenties, I'd be praising the ACA for my "free" healthcare.
Sabrina at May 2, 2014 6:42 AM
Why are we talking about 18-34? isn't 27-34??
The cohort between the ages of 18 and 26 are eligible to be covered on their parents plans.
I'm going to guess that a sizable number of the 34 and under are the...less than healthy sort.
Or they can't do math. $95 or 1% of income is probably less than paying for insurance which they'll always be able to get down the road. When they get sick.
I R A Darth Aggie at May 2, 2014 9:37 AM
Then of course there is this:
Many Obamacare enrollees haven't paid their premiums yet - why not?
So that leaves 33% who signed up and haven't paid. So it sounds like the U.S. tax payers are going to screwed, again.
Jim P. at May 2, 2014 2:04 PM
Per the question of why 18-34, I'm talking about it because that's the age range cited. However, not all 18-26 year-olds have parents. Not to be morbid, but just being under 26 doesn't guarantee that you are on somebody else's plan. Other reasons, your parents choose to pay the $95 fee and don't have a plan, your parents reside in another state and you don't have coverage in the state you live in, and possibly being married
I'm not sure what ACA does for young people who are married in terms of insurance. I'm glad I wasn't on my parents insurance until I was 26 - otherwise they might have tried to dictate what hospital I gave birth in (at age 25).
Shannon M. Howell at May 2, 2014 2:36 PM
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