Corona Virus Daily Thread #40

Models.

Models are always perfect, so long as you have perfect data and a perfect understanding of the processes that are being modeled.

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/364137/

Monday morning quarterbacking:

15) The attacks against President Trump for being too proactive with national security measures in response to the possible risks of the Coronavirus were 26 days ago.

Now the same voices claim President Trump did not do enough.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200321094556/https:/twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1232752316211703809

Why haven't we fully and almost-instantly mobilized private industry - the way we did in World War II? Well, the truth is we didn't quite turn on the dime then either. Desperately needed modern equipment didn't arrive on the battlefield until mid-to-late 1942.

https://warontherocks.com/2020/04/wartime-lessons-for-industrial-mobilization-in-a-time-of-pandemic/

For many, the model is World War II, when American industry converted from civilian to military production on a scale that swamped Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. Images of Ford auto factories turning out B-24 bombers inspire hopes that today’s war-like emergency can be met with a similar mobilization of American industrial might. But the experience of ... the hundreds of other firms that strove to pivot civilian manufacturing to military production – offer important lessons and cautions for today.

Today’s problem is easier in important ways. Fighting COVID-19 will not require a vast panoply of land, air, and sea weapons with thousands of different designs – today a handful of crucial equipment types will do. Planners in the 1940s worked with slide rules and typewriters – today’s information-age, computerized planning tools are far superior for coordinating complex undertakings.

But the World War II analogy has some real value in ways its advocates may not realize. In particular, it highlights often-overlooked challenges of organization and politics that can radically slow mobilization and create long-term problems from short-term fixes.

U.S. mobilization for World War II took a lot longer than many today realize. The Roosevelt administration began active planning for this almost two years before Pearl Harbor. [...]

What took so long?

A major contributor was the organizational challenge of quickly reorienting complex manufacturing systems at scale. Even in the 1940s, industrial production involved opaque supply chains, each step of which was a potential bottleneck, leading to major delays and inefficiencies. In the early 1940s, multiple firms suddenly shifting ... production found themselves competing with one another for critical materials and components, causing shortages and supply bottlenecks well downstream from the assembly factory floor. Shortages were accompanied by inefficiency.... Manufacturers could hire workers, but these workers had no experience building complex ... components. The burden of training and educating a sufficient labor force became a bottleneck as severe as scarce materials.

Bernie Bros hardest hit. To be honest, I was looking forward to making smores in the burning remains of Milwaukee.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html

Lots of folks, from politicians to used car salesmen, are trying to calm fears associated with the COVID-19 pandemic by harkening back to America’s glorious past. “We” can get through this, they say, because “we” successfully traversed worse travails. The problem with that analysis is the “we” has changed. Yes, America suffered invasion and the destruction of the national capital in 1814, a long, bloody Civil War, and so forth. But the Americans who preserved or prevailed then are all long gone, as are many of the nation’s most important institutions.

https://www.aier.org/article/is-this-americas-turning-point/

When asked about the possibility of one of his parishioners dying from coronavirus, he told TMZ: "The bible teaches us to be absent from our bodies and be present with the lord.

"So like any pure religious person...death looks to them like a welcome friend."

Howdy friend!

https://www.the-sun.com/news/654996/louisiana-pastor-refuses-stop-church-services-coronavirus-lockdown/

RIP John Prine.

Yes, very sad. RIP.

Somehow, I thought he wrote the lyrics for "Blue Sky" - but I can't find absolute proof right now, so I suppose it was the Allman Bros.

In the meantime, something fun from Odd News:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-finland-cake/novelty-toilet-roll-cakes-keep-finnish-baker-in-business-idUSKCN21Q2DO

Somehow, I thought he wrote the lyrics for "Blue Sky" - but I can't find absolute proof right now, so I suppose it was the Allman Bros. ~ Lenona at April 8, 2020 11:41 AM

I believe Dicky Betts wrote "Blue Sky" for the Allman Brothers Band.

In late March, the FDA approved the use of Cepheid’s GeneXpert rapid molecular diagnostic machines to test for the new coronavirus. The automated modules—5000 of which are already installed in U.S. health facilities, while 18,000 are in operation in other countries—don’t require a lab facility or special training to operate.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/the-institute/ieee-member-news/a-rapid-test-for-covid19-arrives-via-a-20yearold-technology-already-in-many-hospitals

Hey, it's in Wikipedia so it must be true!

"Blue Sky" is a song by the American rock band the Allman Brothers Band from their third studio album, Eat a Peach (1972), released on Capricorn Records. The song was written and sung by guitarist Dickey Betts, who penned it about his girlfriend (and later wife), Sandy "Bluesky" Wabegijig. The track is also notable as one of guitarist Duane Allman's final recorded performances with the group. The band's two guitarists, Duane Allman and Betts, alternate playing the song's lead: Allman's solo beginning 1:07 in, Betts joining in a shared melody line at 2:28, followed by Betts's solo at 2:37. The song is notably more country-inspired than many songs in the band's catalogue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Sky_(song)