The data should be shared internationally. Coordinated efforts need to be happening if they aren't already.

Makes sense to me — but, unlike every other person on the Internet these days, I'm no expert in virology.

The randomized testing and sero surveys have already begun. It just takes time.

As for what has already been published it looks like the current number of 'cases' or 'positives' is undercounting by around a factor of 100. So the 819,321 cases for the US needs about two zeros added on the end, 81,932,100. Or about 24%.

For herd immunity for diseases like this one you typically need 90%-95%.

I don’t think any of this will be particularly valuable in reopening the country. It will take too long to provide any useful information.

According to studies there are thirty (or more) strains of this virus out there now, and mutating rapidly. (There will probably never be a vaccine)

The politicians are looking for something, anything really to shove decisions off onto people and models who don’t have to stand for election.

We are in the middle of massive butt covering. And Montana is in a much different situation than Manhattan.

There has been a lot of shut down theater. I expect the panic to continue among those who don’t actually have to go to work, demanding that the rest of us stay home, so they can go out *safely* (safety is an illusion)

That equation should have been flipped. The elderly and vulnerable should have stayed home, while the rest of us toughed it out, and got past this.

Indications are, everyone will be exposed to it eventually anyway.

The serology testing will show those who have had an immune response to covid, not those who (necessarily) actively HAVE covid.

It is worth knowing, particularly with the young, how many may already be immune. If 90percent of kids are immune in an area, schools could reopen, for instance.

Obviously, we would want to make sure they aren't contagious (end of infection type scenario where they haven't cleared it but have antibodies)

The article is a month old, so it would be interesting to know how much of the information it recommends we gather is actually being found and reported. This pandemic is challenging every single system in the world to adapt at blinding speed. I'm sure that everyone is in favor of finding out everything we can as fast as we can and apply the information in the smartest possible ways. On a personal level, I need to know some very particular statistics in order to plan my life from here on out. We've all heard that obesity and age and heart problems and lung problems and diabetes are big risk factors. However, like an enormous number of people, I am technically in a lot of those categories but in a minor way. My BMI is in the overweight zone, but not obese (and I REALLY need to get back to low carb eating because I am gaining weight during this lock-down). I'm just over 60. I have asthma but it's mild and controlled; most days I don't even use a preventative inhaler and I've never had to use a nebulizer. I have Type II diabetes but it's well-controlled and I have no known complications...well, it was very well-controlled before the lock-down when I started to eat every carb in sight. I don't have high blood pressure but there is serious heart disease in my family so G-d alone knows how much my arteries may be sludged. It's probably going to be a LONG time before we have the data and studies to let me and my doctor know just how likely it would be for me to have serious complications or to die from the WuFlu. I try not to think about the implications right now, because it raises the possibility that in order to be "safe" I would be in semi-quarantine for years. Maybe I would rather take a non-miniscule chance of death than not see my kids again for years, or not be able to go about some semblance of a normal life.

RigelDog, this might give you some peace of mind, emphasis mine:

In addition to protecting against polio by inducing antibodies that kill the virus, OPV activates other protective mechanisms, including an innate immune system, thus making people resistant to infections caused by other viruses and bacteria. For example, in large scale multicenter clinical trials conducted in the 1970s during outbreaks of seasonal influenza, OPV protected more people from influenza than most flu vaccines do. Furthermore, observational studies in many countries suggested that the hospitalization rate and the overall mortality among children immunized with OPV were consistently lower compared with unimmunized children, even in the absence of poliovirus in communities.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/04/21/oral-polio-vaccine-has-potential-treat-coronavirus-column/5162859002/

That's the Sabin oral polio vaccine. It is quite likely you've had this. Unless you got Salk's.

Thanks for the info, Darth! I may have had both the Salk and the Sabin vaccine, because I was born in 1957. I imagine I would have had the Salk given to me as a toddler, and then I have a vague recollection of being given an oral vaccine in grade school because people were talking about how it was such a great development in preventing polio.

I may have had both the Salk and the Sabin vaccine, because I was born in 1957. I imagine I would have had the Salk given to me as a toddler, and then I have a vague recollection of being given an oral vaccine in grade school because people were talking about how it was such a great development in preventing polio. ~ RigelDog at April 22, 2020 9:21 AM

If you're interested, this book gives a pretty good history of both vaccines and the struggle to create and test them.

Salk favored a live virus and Sabin favored using a dead one. Unfortunately for Sabin, Salk got to the finish line first and vaccinated a great deal fo the world's population. As a result, Sabin's vaccine had to be tested in the Soviet Union, which still had a large unvaccinated population.

The book also gives a pretty good, and harrowing, description of what living with random polio outbreaks was like; the fear and panic it could incite.

Few people are left alive who had childhood polio - Alan Alda (7) and Mitch McConnell (2) to name a two. Alda was treated with Sister Elizabeth Kenny's controversial physical therapy regimen and credits it for curing him (and for making him a feminist). McConnell was treated at Warm Springs and credits the treatment for preventing him from being disabled for life, although he still has trouble getting around due to the lingering effects in his legs.

"The data should be shared internationally. Coordinated efforts need to be happening if they aren't already."

Heh. Do comprehenive analysis, and you have a wonderful idea of how to attack anywhere or everywhere on Earth.

Do you think HIPAA applies? Hope not. It won't.

> Alda was treated

Mark Donahue received the Kenny treatment, and had an otherwise(!) short life of considerable athleticism.